2025 Straight Talk Wireless 400 Predictions at Homestead for Today: Best NASCAR Prop Bets, Picks to Win & Odds
Today's 2025 Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway starts at 3 p.m. ET on FS1.
The NASCAR Cup Series is back in Florida, and we're featuring Christopher Bell, Chase Briscoe, and Daniel Suarez in our 2025 Straight Talk Wireless odds and expert predictions.
📊 2025 Straight Talk Wireless 400 odds & favorites at Homestead
Here are the latest Straight Talk Wireless 400 odds and favorites at BetMGM for Homestead as of Sunday at 9 a.m. ET.
🥇 Straight Talk Wireless 400 betting favorites 🥇
- Kyle Larson, +375 ($10 to win $37)
- Ryan Blaney, +500 ($10 to win $65)
- Tyler Reddick, +650 ($10 to win $65)
- William Byron, +750 ($10 to win $75)
- Denny Hamlin, +1100 ($10 to win $110)
- Christopher Bell, +1200 ($10 to win $120)
- Alex Bowman, +1600 ($10 to win $160)
- Joey Logano, +1800 ($10 to win $180)
- Chase Elliott, +2200 ($10 to win $220)
- Chase Briscoe, +2200 ($10 to win $220)
- Ross Chastain, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
- Kyle Busch, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
- Josh Berry, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
- Bubba Wallace, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
- Chris Buescher, +5000 ($10 to win $500)
- Brad Keselowski, +5000 ($10 to win $400)
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🏁 Straight Talk Wireless 400 predictions, expert picks & best bets at Homestead
Homestead has been bouncing around the schedule after losing its place as the championship-deciding event. The Cup Series went there for the playoffs last year, but now it's the sixth race of the season. Homestead last hosted a spring race in 2021, and William Byron won after leading 102 of 267 laps.
Homestead is an interesting venue for several reasons, the most significant of which is the rough surface. It falls squarely into the category of low-speed intermediates due to the heavy tire wear the track's coarseness induces. Those factors reward drivers who can run as close to the wall as possible, a skill common to those with experience on dirt.
The significance of dirt-racing experience reveals itself when looking at who wins here. Greg Biffle and Tony Stewart, two of the three drivers tied for the most wins in Miami, have established extensive dirt backgrounds. The three winners at this track in the NextGen era - Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, and Tyler Reddick - grew up racing on dirt, too.
Because of that, I'm predicting Christopher Bell will win the Straight Talk Wireless 400.
🏆 Pick to win Straight Talk Wireless 400: Christopher Bell (+1100 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
This line is one of the most absurd of the season. Bell, who has won three of five races on the year and has won at Homestead in the last three races, is available at 11/1 (8.3%) through FanDuel. Meanwhile, Larson is 4/1 (25%) and Reddick is 6/1 (14.3%). This value won’t be around forever, so lock Bell in before qualifying.
Beyond Bell’s history of dirt-track racing, he's run well in Miami over the years. He finished fourth last fall, won after leading 26 laps in 2023, and ended up 11th in 2022. Importantly, he was also fourth in average green-flag speed here last fall, with Toyota teammates Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, and Martin Truex Jr. joining him in the top 10.
The one red flag to note with Bell is his lackluster performance in qualifying. He has yet to earn a top-10 starting position, which is just as much of a concern as it is an aberration. Bell won three poles last year, yet he finished with an average starting position of 11.2.
He qualified third at Homestead last season, so let’s bet on a bounce-back showing from him in qualifying and take Bell early.
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💎 Best value bet to win Straight Talk Wireless 400: Chase Briscoe (+3000 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Few drivers have endured a more disappointing start to the season than Briscoe. He left Stewart-Haas Racing for the more competitive Joe Gibbs Racing in the offseason. But there are no results to show for it thus far, with Briscoe scoring just a single top-five finish in the Daytona 500. But I’m optimistic that Briscoe will rally on Sunday, especially since this No. 19 Toyota showed plenty of speed last season.
Homestead is a great rebound track for Briscoe. Like Reddick, Bell, and Larson, Briscoe cut his teeth on dirt tracks before making the jump to NASCAR. He nearly won the 2022 Bristol dirt race after leading 59 laps before crashing out on the last lap. Of course, Homestead isn’t a dirt track, and Briscoe’s Cup Series resume there isn’t nearly as impressive.
The silver lining with Briscoe is that we’ve seen him run well at Homestead in the Xfinity Series. He won the second Xfinity Series race at Homestead in 2020 and posted two top-five finishes and three top-10 results over four starts. He's made year-over-year improvements in his Cup Series finishing position in Miami since 2022, and Briscoe deserves better odds than +3000 (3.2%) to win on Sunday.
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🎯 Best long shot to win Straight Talk Wireless 400: Daniel Suarez (+6000 via Hard Rock) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I’m not a big believer overall in Suarez, whose contract with Trackhouse Racing expires at the end of the season. But we’ve seen him up front and aggressive so far this year. Suarez knows he's driving for his future in this sport, and that’s the kind of aggression we need to justify backing a long-shot driver at a track like Homestead.
Suarez ran well here in the Xfinity Series, scoring one win and two top-10 finishes in two starts. The win came dominantly. He led 133 of 200 laps while edging out Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, and Alex Bowman. He's registered just one top-10 finish and a single lap led at Miami in the Cup Series, but the speed we saw out of him last weekend in Las Vegas when he finished second - was encouraging.
While Suarez will likely need considerable help to cross the finish line in first on Sunday, he holds more talent and better equipment than his long-shot odds suggest. Getting him at a whopping 60/1 (1.6%) is an absolute steal for a driver we’ve seen beat some of the sport’s best at this track in the lower series.
Carson Hocevar is another decent driver in this tier. But he sports much shorter odds at our best sportsbooks, so we’re leaving him off the outright card.
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💰 Best Straight Talk Wireless 400 prop bets & picks at Homestead
The category of driver we’re targeting this weekend - guys with extensive experience on dirt tracks - includes more drivers than you may realize. Bell, Larson, and Reddick fit the criteria, but so do Briscoe and Alex Bowman. You’ll find the former three drivers trading at well below even odds to score a top-10 result, but the same isn’t true for Bowman and Briscoe.
Both Briscoe and Bowman should be on your card for at least a finish inside the top 10. We’ll pivot away from the dirt-track formula for our long-shot prop pick, but it’s for another underrated driver at this type of venue.
🔥 Best prop bet for Straight Talk Wireless 400: Alex Bowman top-10 finish (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
While I’m bullish on Briscoe outright, I like Bowman more than him in the top-10 markets.
Bowman can be aggressive, but he generally prefers to race for points. That’s why he's scored a top-10 finish in four of five races this season while completing 99.9% of the laps. He's also scored a top-10 result at Homestead in two of his last three starts despite not leading a single lap.
Getting Bowman at plus money to nab a top-10 outcome is a great value wager given how his team has been attacking races this season. He’ll never be the type of driver who dominates a race from the beginning. But he’ll always be around the front at the end if Bowman can keep his car clean.
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🚀 Best long-shot prop bet for Straight Talk Wireless 400: Brad Keselowski top-five finish (+650 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
While I vastly prefer targeting dirt-track drivers in the plus money to score top-10 finishes on Sunday, there just isn’t as much value on those markets as there is with this one. Brad Keselowski has never won in Miami in the Cup Series. But he did so twice in Xfinity, and the veteran is consistently at the front of the field at this type of venue.
Keselowski stole a win at Darlington last year, and that's another low-speed intermediate track that features a ton of tire wear. His teammate, Chris Buescher, nearly won too. Keselowski has scored a top-five finish in four of his last 11 starts at Homestead in the Cup Series, good for a win rate of 36.3%. That's far better than his implied odds of 13.3% on Sunday.
📈 Straight Talk Wireless 400 trends & Homestead-Miami Speedway history
Here are a few Straight Talk Wireless 400 trends to consider before betting on Sunday's race at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
🏎️ Back drivers with dirt backgrounds! The last three winners at Homestead - Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, and Tyler Reddick - all came up racing on dirt tracks.
🏎️ Qualifying speed matters a lot. The average starting position of the Homestead race winner is 6.3 during the NextGen Era, and the average starting position of the driver to lead the most laps is 3.7. Tyler Reddick won from the pole last year.
🏎️ Don’t trust the Blue Ovals. Of all drivers who scored top-10 finishes at Homestead in the NextGen car, only seven, or 23.3%, drove Fords. Those behind the wheel of Toyotas (33.3%) and Chevrolets (43.4%) fared far better.
💡 How to bet on NASCAR at Homestead
When betting on the NASCAR Cup Series at Homestead, there are several strategic tips to consider that apply to pretty much every low-speed intermediate track.
- Bet on drivers who can manage their tires. Tracks with rough surfaces like Homestead chew up tires, so identify drivers who can get the most out of their equipment over the long run. While starting position matters, it won’t mean much if a driver can’t compete over substantial stretches of green-flag racing.
- Get some action down before qualifying! You’re unlikely to get the pole-sitter at a price south of +400 once qualifying is over. While that doesn’t matter much for guys like Kyle Larson, who's already at +400 before qualifying, it does for longer-shot options further down the oddsboard.
- Don’t expect randomness. While tracks like superspeedways and road courses produce long-shot winners with some regularity, it’s much harder for a surprise driver to win on an intermediate track, either high- or low-speed, because of equipment disparities. If you’re buying long shots, buy drivers on teams that can compete on these tracks.
🏆 Past Straight Talk Wireless 400 winners
Here is a look at the last 10 winners at Homestead-Miami Speedway entering Sunday's race.
| Year | Driver | Team | Manufacturer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Tyler Reddick | 23XI Racing | Toyota |
| 2023 | Christopher Bell | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota |
| 2022 | Kyle Larson | Hendrick Motorsports | Chevrolet |
| 2021 | William Byron | Hendrick Motorsports | Chevrolet |
| 2020 | Denny Hamlin | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota |
| 2019 | Kyle Busch | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota |
| 2018 | Joey Logano | Team Penske | Toyota |
| 2017 | Martin Truex Jr. | Furniture Row Racing | Toyota |
| 2016 | Jimmie Johnson | Hendrick Motorsports | Chevrolet |
| 2015 | Kyle Busch | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota |
📺 How to watch the 2025 Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead
📅 Race date: Sunday, March 23, 2025
🕒 Start time: 3 p.m. ET
📍 Track: Homestead-Miami Speedway (Homestead, Fla.)
📺 TV: FS1 | Streaming: FOX Sports App
❓ Straight Talk Wireless 400 FAQs
Who is favored to win at Homestead?
Kyle Larson is the favorite to win at Homestead-Miami Speedway at odds of +400 (25%).
What are the odds for Homestead?
Behind Larson (+400), Tyler Reddick (+600) and Ryan Blaney (+650) are expected to compete for the win at Homestead.
What time is the 2025 Straight Talk Wireless 400?
The 2025 Straight Talk Wireless 400 starts at 3 p.m. ET (FS1) on Sunday, March 23, from Homestead-Miami Speedway.
How to watch the 2025 Straight Talk Wireless 400
You can watch the Straight Talk Wireless 400 on FS1 or stream it via the FOX Sports App.
Who won the Straight Talk Wireless 400 last year?
Tyler Reddick won last year’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Homestead. He entered the race at odds of +400 after winning the pole.
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