2025 Toyota/Save Mart 350 Predictions at Sonoma: Best NASCAR Prop Bets, Expert Picks to Win & Odds

After Shane Van Gisbergen put together another dominant run at the Chicago Street Course, the NASCAR Cup Series will make more right and left turns at Sonoma Raceway on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Let’s dive into the 2025 Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds as we make our expert NASCAR prop bets, picks, and predictions for Sonoma.

📊 2025 Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds & favorites at Sonoma

Here are the latest Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds and favorites at BetMGM as of Thursday morning.

🥇 Toyota/Save Mart 350 betting favorites 🥇

• Shane Van Gisbergen, +125 ($10 to win $12.50)
• Kyle Larson, +600 ($10 to win $60)
• Michael McDowell, +1100 ($10 to win $110)
• Tyler Reddick, +1200 ($10 to win $120)
• Ty Gibbs, +1300 ($10 to win $130)
• Chase Elliott, +1300 ($10 to win $130)
• Chris Buescher, +1300 ($10 to win $130)
• Christopher Bell, +1700 ($10 to win $170)
• William Byron, +1800 ($10 to win $180)
• AJ Allmendinger, +2000 ($10 to win $200)
• Kyle Busch, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
• Ross Chastain, +2500 ($10 to win $250)

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🏁 Toyota/Save Mart 350 predictions, expert picks & best bets at Sonoma

While NASCAR is known for left turns, there are several road courses on the schedule (six this season) that feature both right and left turns. They vary in the degree of technical skill required, with permanent venues like Sonoma on the more technical end and improvised or adapted ones like Chicago Street less so.

Despite some road courses requiring more skill than others, the small handful of drivers who have backgrounds in open wheel, sports car, or supercar racing generally hold an advantage over their peers who grew up on ovals. Shane Van Gisbergen (+125) has won two of the three road course events this season, so he checks that box.

With warm and sunny conditions forecasted for this weekend’s event in wine country, Sonoma should provide another chance for the sport’s best road course drivers to show off their skills. While he isn’t a road course specialist, I predict Tyler Reddick will win the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma, but I’m also very bullish on AJ Allmendinger.

🏆 Pick to win Toyota/Save Mart 350: Tyler Reddick (+1400 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

The odds for Sunday’s race are mostly in line with what's expected. Shane Van Gisbergen’s prices are probably too short at +125, but the other drivers at the top – Kyle Larson, Michael McDowell, and Chris Buescher – absolutely belong there. The problem is that Reddick should be closer to Larson’s tier than to where McDowell and Buescher are currently, opening up some value.

While it hasn’t been a banner year for 23XI Racing, Reddick is one of the few drivers capable of keeping pace with SVG. At the Circuit of the Americas, Reddick’s average green flag speed (85.18 mph) was ever so slightly behind SVG’s (85.27). The same was true during the Chicago street race last weekend (83.91 to 83.76). No other driver came that close in any of the two other road course races.

When we zoom out to look at all road course stats since 2022, SVG ranks second in average finish (9.8) and first in average driver rating (113.8), while Reddick sits fourth (10.8) and second (101.9), respectively. No other drivers boast average driver ratings over 100 in that sample.

Further, Reddick has qualified second for the last two Sonoma Cup Series races, while SVG will make his first start.

💎 Best value bet to win Toyota/Save Mart 350: AJ Allmendinger (+2200 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I like Reddick at +1400, but I love Allmendinger at +2200. A $10 bet on a guy who has won at road courses in the Cup Series scoring a $220 return is too good to pass up. We rode with Allmendinger last week, and while he didn’t win, the veteran stayed up front most of the day en route to a sixth-place finish.

There are valid concerns with the fall-off in quality for Kaulig Racing, but Allmendinger is on pace to edge out the results from his most recent full-time Cup Series season in 2023. The Dinger has logged five top 10s and an average finish of 19.1 in 19 races. And in 2023 he recorded seven top 10s and an average finish of 19.6 in all 36.

Allmendinger is one of 11 guys in the field with a road-course win since 2022. He ranks 11th by average finish (15.2) but sixth in average driver rating (91.6) and fourth in average starting position (10.2). Lock in a wager on him at this number before qualifying. Allmendinger should put this car up front.

🎯 Best long shot to win Toyota/Save Mart 350: Austin Cindric (+8000 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

When Cindric entered the Cup Series, most believed he could be a threat to find victory lane at road courses. Five of Cindric’s 13 Xfinity Series wins came on five different road courses. Despite the hype, Cindric has yet to deliver at any of those venues, with his career-best showing coming at the Indy Road Course in 2022.

Cindric has tallied zero top-10 results and a best finish of 18th at Mexico City across three road courses in 2025, so the lack of hype around him now is understandable. He's led three laps at road courses in the No. 2 Ford over 20 races. That trails the 17 he paced in the part-time No. 33 over a four-race sample in 2021.

The NextGen car may not suit Cindric’s style at this type of track, but getting a guy in top-tier equipment with multiple road course wins in the lower series at +8000, or enough to score an $800 return on a $10 bet, is enough for me to take the risk.  

💰 Best Toyota/Save Mart 350 prop bets & picks at Sonoma

We’re revisiting Allmendinger, who is shockingly available at plus money just to score a top-10 finish. We’ll also discuss a long-shot option to finish inside the top 10.

🔥 Best prop bet for Toyota/Save Mart 350: A.J. Allmendinger top 10 (+110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

While the No. 16 Kaulig Racing team and Allmendinger need a win to get into the playoffs, I don’t expect their late-race decisions to keep the veteran driver from notching a top-10 outcome. Most of our best sports betting sites are pricing the Dinger at below even odds, with only bet365 over +100. This bet should win at higher than the 50% rate required for us to turn a profit.

Allmendinger has snatched 11 top 10s at road courses since the NextGen era began. Only three other drivers – Buescher, Reddick, and Elliott – have recorded more. Allmendinger is coming off his first top 10 on a road course this season, but he would have put up another one at COTA if not for a late-race disaster. With Allmendinger finishing sixth in the last two Sonoma races, +110 is too generous for him to score a top 10.

🚀 Best long-shot prop bet for Toyota/Save Mart 350: Zane Smith top 10 (+1100 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Cindric (+380 at FanDuel) isn’t a bad play, either. But Zane Smith at +1100 is a true four-star long-shot bet. Remember, the raw odds of anyone getting a top 10 are 27% in a 36-car field, which is vastly higher than the 8.3% chance FanDuel is giving Smith.

It wasn’t long ago that Front Row Racing was a mainstay at the front of the field during road courses, both with Todd Gilliland and Michael McDowell. The team has regressed amid a major lawsuit this season, but Smith’s 14th-place finish last week at the Chicago Street course, fifth-place finish at Watkins Glen last year, and solid Truck Series resume on road courses point to value at this surprisingly long line.

📈 Toyota/Save Mart 350 trends & Sonoma Raceway history

Here are a few Toyota/Save Mart 350 trends to consider before betting on Sunday's race at Sonoma Raceway. Specifically, we’ll be discussing the recent road course races and events at Sonoma.

🏎️ The winner starts up front. The driver who went on to win the race started on the first four rows during each of the Sonoma events since the NextGen Era began in 2022. The same was true for the driver who led the most laps in all three of those events. 

🏎️ But the pole-sitter finishes in the back. For whatever reason, the last three pole-sitters at Sonoma have struggled, finishing outside the top 10 in each event. Their average finish of 24th over that sample is concerning, but it’s more than likely just noise.

🏎️ Buescher owns this place. While he hasn't logged a win over our three-race sample, Buescher enters Sunday’s race with three straight top 10 – and top five – results at Sonoma, including a runner-up in 2022 and a stage win in 2024.

📉 Toyota/Save Mart 350 betting insights

Here are some betting insights from BetMGM as the buildup to the race continues.

• Michael McDowell is getting the highest ticket percentage at 11.11%, with Kyle Larson (7.6%) and Chris Buescher (7.1%) following
• Shane van Gisbergen is generating the highest handle at 58%, with McDowell (11.1%) and Buescher following (6.6%)
• Kyle Larson, who won this race last year, is generating only 3.9% of the handle

💡 How to bet on NASCAR at Sonoma

When betting on road courses in NASCAR, the strategy tips we discussed last week may be helpful. I’ve added an additional note for technical road courses as well:

• Don’t overpay for the big favorite. While specific drivers often dominate road courses (Chase Elliott’s run comes to mind), that doesn’t mean large favorites are profitable over the long run. Remember that it’s a 36-to-40-car field before laying more than 10% (or 20%, or 30%) for one driver.
• Don’t let performance on ovals influence you. Some drivers do well on road courses, while others struggle. There’s a reason why Denny Hamlin, who is often atop the oddsboard on ovals, is a long shot for this weekend’s race. Conversely, there’s a reason why Shane Van Gisbergen, who is frequently far down the board on ovals, is at the top.
• Pay up for proven technical road course craft. While improvised road course venues like Chicago Street and the Charlotte Roval aren’t easy, IndyCar and F1 deliberately distinguish their “street” and “road” circuits in a way that NASCAR doesn’t. Pay attention to which drivers do best at tracks like Sonoma, COTA, and Watkins Glen this weekend.

🏆 Past Sonoma Raceway winners

Here is a look at the last 10 Sonoma Raceway winners entering Sunday's race.

📺 How to watch the 2025 Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma

📅 Race date: Sunday, July 13, 2025
🕒 Start time: 3:30 p.m. ET
📍 Track: Sonoma Raceway (Sonoma, Cal.)
📺 TV: TNT | Streaming: HBO Max

❓ Toyota/Save Mart 350 FAQs

Who is favored to win the Toyota/Save Mart 350?

Shane Van Gisbergen is favored to win the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at odds of +125 (44.4%), which would yield a $12.50 on a $10 bet.

What are the odds for the Toyota/Save Mart 350?

Behind SVG, Kyle Larson (+600, $60 profit on a $10 bet) and Michael McDowell (+1100, $110) are the next-best drivers down the odds board for the 2025 Toyota/Save Mart 350.

What time is the 2025 Toyota/Save Mart 350?

The 2025 Toyota/Save Mart 350 starts at 3:30 p.m. ET (TNT) on Sunday, July 13, from Sonoma.

How to watch the 2025 Toyota/Save Mart 350

You can watch the Toyota/Save Mart 350 on TNT or stream it via HBO Max.

Who won at Sonoma last year?

Kyle Larson won last year’s race at Sonoma Raceway with opening odds of +750 and race day odds of +450.

💵 Best NASCAR betting sites

Want to bet on the Toyota/Save Mart 350? Check out the best sports betting sites and best sportsbook promos for the race this weekend:

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• Hard Rock Bet Promo Code

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