Viva Mexico 250 Predictions Today: Best NASCAR at Mexico City 2025 Prop Bets, Picks to Win & Odds

The NASCAR Cup Series makes its debut at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez this afternoon in the 2025 Viva Mexico 250. We’re here to break down today's NASCAR odds for Mexico City, as well as identify our favorite expert picks and predictions that you’ll want to tail.

📊 2025 Viva Mexico 250 odds & favorites at Mexico City

Here are the latest Viva Mexico 250 odds and favorites at BetMGM as of Sunday at noon ET in Mexico City.

🥇 Viva Mexico 250 betting favorites 🥇

• Shane van Gisbergen, +225 ($10 to win $22.50)
• Ross Chastain, +700 ($10 to win $70)
• Ty Gibbs, +900 ($10 to win $90)
• Kyle Larson, +1000 ($10 to win $100)
• Chase Elliott, +1300 ($10 to win $130)
• Michael McDowell, +1300 ($10 to win $130)
• Christopher Bell, +1500 ($10 to win $150)
• Ryan Preece, +1600 ($10 to win $160)
• Daniel Suarez, +1800 ($10 to win $180)
• A.J. Allmendinger, +2000 ($10 to win $200)
• William Byron, +2000 ($10 to win $200)
• Tyler Reddick, +2000 ($10 to win $200)
• Chris Buescher, +2200 ($10 to win $220)
• Kyle Busch, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
• Austin Cindric, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
• Todd Gilliland, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
• Chase Briscoe, +4000 ($10 to win $400)
• Joey Logano, +4000 ($10 to win $400)
• Ryan Blaney, +5000 ($10 to win $500)
• Carson Hocevar, +5000 ($10 to win $500)

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📈 Viva Mexico 250 odds movement 

• van Gisbergen's odds shortened from +325 to +225
• Chastain's odds shortened from +1000 to +700
• Gibbs' odds shortened from +1000 to +800
• Elliott's odds lengthened from +700 to +1300
• Bell's odds lengthened from +700 to +1500
• Byron's odds lengthened from +900 to +2000
• Reddick's odds lengthened from +900 to +2000
• Busch's odds lengthened from +1600 to +2500

🏁 Viva Mexico 250 predictions, expert picks & best bets at Mexico City

The NASCAR Cup Series hasn’t run a race at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez in Mexico City before, but since it is a road course, we have plenty of comparable tracks to use when handicapping it. The last time we saw the Cup drivers at a road course, Christopher Bell took the lead late to win at the Circuit of the Americas (COTA).

Not all road courses are built the same, and this venue is a unique one. It features three long straightaways and 14 corners. Sharp corners and the end of each straightaway will put drivers - and their brakes - through the ringer. The start-finish line comes at the start of the front straightaway, which follows a series of hairpin passing zones.

The 2.7-mile purpose-built road course venue compares favorably to all road courses, but I’ll be leaning on COTA, Sonoma, and Watkins Glen for my analysis, as they are much more similar than the Charlotte Roval and Chicago Street Course.

Ultimately, I predict Chris Buescher will win the Viva Mexico 250 in Mexico City.

🏆 Pick to win Viva Mexico 250: Chris Buescher (+1400 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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While Buescher doesn’t get as much hype when we go to road courses as, say, Shane Van Gisbergen, there’s a strong argument he deserves more credit than he gets. He finally broke through for his first road course win at Watkins Glen last season. Further, since the NextGen Era began in 2022, Buescher has scored top 10s in 14 of 18 events on road and street circuits.

When we narrow the sample to just Watkins Glen, Sonoma, and COTA, the results are even more impressive. Buescher sports an average finish of seventh across those tracks since 2022. Buescher has also brought plenty of speed to these venues of late. He ranked inside the top 10 in green flag speed at COTA earlier this year and at all three venues last year.

Friday’s practice sessions went well for Buescher, too. He ranked sixth in Practice 1 and fifth in Practice 2. He also ranked third among 15 drivers who completed 10 consecutive laps in that sixth practice session. With a $10 bet offering $140 in profit at this price, Buescher should be on your NASCAR betting card for Mexico City.

💎 Best value bet to win Viva Mexico 250: Daniel Suarez (+2000 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐

Suarez, the first foreign-born driver to win a championship in the top three series of NASCAR, came up through the NASCAR Mexico Series. During his time in the series, he won at this track three times. While a few other drivers in the field ran here in the Xfinity Series, Suarez’s 13 starts at this venue are far more than anyone else on the entry list.

Road courses have also been good for Suarez. He broke through for his first Cup Series win at Sonoma in 2022, and, since then, he has another three top 5s. Those aren’t the most impressive results, but he posted better average green-flag speed at COTA earlier this year, ranking eighth despite retiring after 50 laps due to an accident. All four Trackhouse cars were top 10 in the metric that race.

With his 2025 campaign off to a shaky start, Suarez finds himself in a must-win scenario to make the playoffs. What better way for him to punch his ticket than in front of the home crowd? I expect Suarez and his team to take plenty of risks in an effort to win this race on Sunday, so even if they don’t have the best car this weekend, Suarez stands out as a value option for +2000 via ESPN BET.

🎯 Best long shot to win Viva Mexico 250: Brad Keselowski (+20000 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Buescher’s teammates also looked good in practice this weekend, including Keselowski, who ranked 19th in Practice 1 before improving to 13th in Practice 2 (Ryan Preece, the other RFK Racing driver, ranked 14th and sixth). Like Suarez, Keselowski also finds himself in a win-or-go-home situation for the postseason.

While the pilot of the No. 6 Ford hasn’t done well on road courses lately, that wasn’t always the case. Keselowski used to be a force at Watkins Glen, where he owns four top 3 finishes in 14 Cup Series starts. He also won at the venue in the Xfinity Series. Keselowski also made two starts in Mexico City in Xfinity, scoring a top 10 here in 2008.

Realistically, Keselowski will need a lot of attrition or a late-race caution to win on Sunday. But with few drivers having any experience at this track, I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a healthy serving of chaos. Odds of +20000 via BetMGM are too good for a driver with as many strong runs on road courses as Keselowski.

💰 Best Viva Mexico 250 prop bets & picks at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez

The NASCAR prop bet options for the Viva Mexico 250 were quite limited as of publication, with most books opting to keep everything but outrights off the board until after Saturday’s practice session.

That said, Hard Rock Bet has two lines worth exploiting, including a five-star play for road course ringer Michael McDowell to score a top 10.

🔥 Best prop bet for Viva Mexico 250: Michael McDowell Top 10 (-110 via Hard Rock) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Both Buescher and McDowell sport outright odds of +1200 to +1400 across the market, but the RFK Racing driver is -160 to score a top 10 while McDowell is a much friendlier -105. That’s a steal of a deal with McDowell having posted top 10s in 10 of his 18 starts on road and street courses in the NextGen Era. That 55.5% clip stands at 50% when we filter to just Sonoma, Watkins Glen, and COTA.

Most of those results came with McDowell’s former team, Front Row Racing, but I’m heartened by the speed we’ve seen from his new team, Spire Motorsports. At COTA this year, Spire’s three drivers ranked 14th, 16th, and 19th by average green flag speed. McDowell led the pack and finished 11th. At Watkins Glen last year, before McDowell’s arrival, the team put two drivers in the top 12 by average green flag speed.

McDowell led all drivers in Practice 1 and ran only six laps in Practice 2. His fastest lap in the first session would’ve ranked seventh in the second session. I think the No. 71 Chevrolet will have enough speed to fight for a top 10 this weekend, and McDowell isn’t in the win-or-go-home range that other drivers are in, so his team may not feel pressured to make an aggressive call for the win.

🚀 Best long-shot prop bet for Viva Mexico 250: Zane Smith Top 10 (+575 via Hard Rock) ⭐⭐⭐

The odds for this long-shot prop bet aren’t that long, but I don’t think the market is treating Smith with the respect he deserves. Smith dominated at COTA in the Truck Series, scoring a pair of wins in three starts. He also managed a runner-up at Sonoma in 2022. 

Smith hasn’t been great at these tracks since joining the Cup Series, but his fifth-place result in last fall’s Watkins Glen race was a good sign. We’ve seen the Fords from Front Row Racing in and around the top 10 plenty at road and street courses, with Michael McDowell and Todd Gilliland combining for 15 since 2022.

This team needs to improve on its shaky performance in practice, but I’m cautiously optimistic that the No. 38 crew can use some notes from Gilliland’s No. 34 team, which led the way in Practice 2 on Friday.

📈 Viva Mexico 250 trends & Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez history

Here are a few Viva Mexico 250 trends to consider before betting on Sunday's race at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez. We’re looking at recent Cup Series races on road courses for these trends with this being the first Cup Series race at Autodrome Hermanos Rodriguez:

🏎️ Chevrolets look fast. Over the last five races on road courses, Chevrolet drivers have three wins. More importantly, a Chevrolet driver led the most laps in four of those events, with Kyle Busch, Ross Chastain, Kyle Larson, and William Byron responsible for the streak.

🏎️ Stage winners don’t win the race. Road courses often see drivers make late-stage strategy calls to maximize stage points. These choices often trade off with their ability to score good finishing positions. No stage-winning driver went on to win the full race in the last five road course events.

💡 How to bet on NASCAR at Mexico City

There are a handful of NASCAR betting strategy tips to keep in mind when we come to road courses, and I’ll walk through two below. But it’s also worth noting where we are on the schedule (only 11 races remain before the playoffs) and that we’re at a new venue, both of which play into my first tip.

• Expect the unexpected. New venues are often entertaining as drivers adjust to a new setting. With several drivers now basically in win-or-go-home situations for the postseason, the odds of an aggressive late-race call are even higher. Sunday’s race could have a high-variance outcome, so don’t lay action on heavy favorites.
• Study up on road course results. The best predictor of future success on a road course is past success on a road course, and not every driver has put together an impressive resume at this type of track. Just because you see guys who are usually favorites every Sunday further down the odds board doesn’t mean the books have made a mistake. 
• Understand what your driver needs. If they haven’t won yet but can point their way into the playoffs, they may opt to pursue stage points, reducing their odds of winning the full race. Guys who have to win–or who have won already–are much less likely to pursue such a strategy.

📺 How to watch the 2025 Viva Mexico 250 at Mexico City

📅 Race date: Sunday, June 15
🕒 Start time: 3 p.m. ET
📍 Track: Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez (Mexico City)
📺 TV & Streaming: Amazon Prime

❓ Viva Mexico 250 FAQs

Who is favored to win the Viva Mexico 250?

Shane Van Gisbergen is favored to win the Viva Mexico 250 at odds of +325 (23.5%), which would yield a $32.5 profit on a $10 wager.

What are the odds for the Viva Mexico 250?

Behind SVG, Christopher Bell and Chase Elliott are expected to compete for the win at odds of +700 (12.5%). 

What time is the 2025 Viva Mexico 250?

The 2025 Viva Mexico 250 starts at 3 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime) on Sunday, June 15 from Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez.

How to watch the 2025 Viva Mexico 250

You can watch the Viva Mexico 250 on Amazon Prime.

Who won the Viva Mexico 250 last year?

This is the first Viva Mexico 250 as the NASCAR Cup Series is making its debut at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez.

💵 Best NASCAR betting sites

Want to bet on the Viva Mexico 250? Check out the best sports betting sites and best sportsbook promos for the race this weekend:

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