Wurth 400 Picks 2024: NASCAR Betting Odds & Preview for Dover Motor Speedway
Kyle Larson enters the weekend as the favorite to win at the Monster Mile, and he leads our Wurth 400 picks based on the best NASCAR odds from our best sports betting sites.
The NASCAR Cup Series moves from a roller-coaster ride of a race at Talladega Superspeedway to Dover Motor Speedway for the Wurth 400. Sunday's event is set to begin at 2 p.m. ET (FS1).
Kyle Larson is among the favorites by the NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds, and he enters this race as the outright favorite to win the lone event at the Monster Mile this season.
Martin Truex Jr. is alongside Larson on this weekend's oddsboard, and he claimed his fourth win on this track in 2023. However, he's still looking for his first checkered flag of the 2024 season.
Kyle Busch won his first pole of the season, and his odds are as short as +900.
Here are our Wurth 400 picks for Sunday's race based on the NASCAR odds for Dover Motor Speedway (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Wurth 400 picks
- Favorite: Kyle Larson (+450 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Long shot: Tyler Reddick (+2000 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Prop: Chase Elliott top five (+200 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Pick to win: Martin Truex Jr. (+650 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Odds to win Wurth 400 2024
Odds as of Sunday at 8 a.m. ET.
| Driver | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +450 | +400 | +400 | +400 | +450 |
| Denny Hamlin | +600 | +650 | +600 | +650 | +600 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +700 | +650 | +600 ❄️ | +650 | +700 |
| William Byron | +650 🔥 | +600 | +600 | +600 | +600 |
| Ryan Blaney | +800 | +900 | +800 | +900 | +800 |
| Kyle Busch | +900 ❄️ | +1200 | +1200 | +1200 | +1000 |
| Chase Elliott | +1100 ❄️ | +1200 | +1200 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Ross Chastain | +1000 | +850 | +1000 | +800 ❄️ | +1100 🔥 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1500 | +1400 | +1200 | +1500 | +1200 |
| Ty Gibbs | +1700 🔥 | +1600 | +1400 | +1200 ❄️ | +1600 |
Wurth 400 field
Unlike last week at Talladega, when every driver was catching +1000 odds or longer for a race that ended in mayhem, this week's race at Dover features a more traditional split between the favorites, contenders, and long shots.
This mile-long track is the ultimate test for drivers with 24-degree banks on the corners and narrow sloping straightaways, which makes it much tougher to pass than it was at Talladega. That makes it even more crucial to secure strong starting position in qualifying and to maintain that track position during the race. Busch scored that position for Sunday and has market-high odds of +1200.
In many ways, this track is a supersized version of Bristol Motor Speedway, where Denny Hamlin outlasted Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Truex to win the Food City 500 in March. Larson, the favorite to win Sunday, finished fifth in that race.
Wurth 400 expert predictions
Favorite: Kyle Larson ⭐⭐⭐
If the track is between 1-2 miles long and shaped like an oval, you can expect Larson to be the betting favorite. That's certainly the case this week for the current NASCAR points leader and co-favorite to win the Cup Series championship.
Larson won here in 2019 and has led 899 laps in 15 career races at Dover, his most at any track. He's led 436 laps in his last four starts at the Monster Mile and leads all active drivers in average starting position (7.9) and average finish (8.6) at this track.
The No. 5 car finished in the top five in each of the last three short-track races, and he's won the pole in three of the last four weeks. These +450 odds pay out $55 on a $10 wager with an 18.18% implied probability, per our odds converter, which isn't a bad bet to make on the best driver in the field.
Best odds: +450 via DraftKings
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Long shot: Tyler Reddick ⭐⭐⭐
Reddick doesn't have the best track record at Dover, but it still feels like the market is undervaluing the No. 45 after he scored his first win of the season last week.
The 23XI Racing driver has been competitive on short tracks this season and finished in the top eight in two of his last three races at the Monster Mile, including an impressive seventh-place showing in last year's Wurth 400. In a race that skews toward the favorites, I don't mind taking a shot here at longer odds.
Also keep an eye on Corey Heim, who is making his Cup Series debut in place of the injured Erik Jones. The talented youngster will get some extra time on this track in Saturday's Xfinity Series, and I wouldn't be totally stunned if he turns in a top-10 finish (+500 via bet365)
Best odds: +2000 via FanDuel
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Prop: Chase Elliott top five ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Only Larson and 11-time Dover winner Jimmie Johnson have a better average finish here than Elliott (9.8), who won this race in 2018 and 2022 and has been the second-fastest qualifier in his 13 races at this track. That's key in a race where quality passes are hard to come by.
He's also finished in the top five in nine of those 13 races at the Monster Mile - he dealt with a wreck and engine trouble in two others - and he picked up a pair of top-fives in the last two short-track races at Richmond (fifth) and Martinsville (third).
These +200 odds imply just a 33.33% chance that Elliott finishes in the top five once again, which feels like a massive bargain on the No. 9 entering Sunday.
Best odds: +200 via bet365
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Pick to win: Martin Truex Jr. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Truex has finished first or second in five of his last seven races at his "home track" at Dover, where he's picked up nine top-fives in his last 12 races. That includes a win in last year's Wurth 400 for his fourth career victory at the Monster Mile - second-most among the field behind only Johnson (11).
Truex also finished second in this year's race at Bristol, a similar track to Dover, and he quietly ranks third in laps led this season despite missing out on that elusive win. It sure feels like the stars are aligning for him to end that winless streak this weekend.
Best odds: +650 via BetMGM
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Previous Wurth 400 winners
| Year | Driver |
|---|---|
| 2023 | Martin Truex Jr. |
| 2022 | Chase Elliott |
| 2021 | Alex Bowman |
| 2020 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2019 | Martin Truex Jr. |
| 2018 | Kevin Harvick |
| 2017 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 2016 | Matt Kenseth |
| 2015 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 2014 | Jimmie Johnson |
Wurth 400 info
- Date: Sunday, April 28 at 2 p.m ET
- Track: Dover Motor Speedway, Dover, Del.
- How to watch: FS1
- Defending winner: Martin Truex Jr.
Wurth 400 picks made Thursday at 7 p.m. ET
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