Stockholm Open Final: Tommy Paul vs. Denis Shapovalov Betting Picks

Sportsbook Review

Last Updated: November 13, 2021 3:37 AM EST • 2 min 24 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Will Denis Shapovalov retain his Stockholm Open title against Tommy Paul? We look at the odds and make our Shapovalov vs Paul picks for Saturday's Stockholm Open Final.

Once more, Paul managed to overcome a crowd that was cheering mostly for his opponent to make the final. The Swedish audience seemed to be about 80 percent in Frances Tiafoe's favor. In what was as close of a contest as we anticipated, the American got broken at 5-5 in both sets, but managed to break Tiafoe serving for the match and didn't look back in a thrilling three-set victory.

There's just something about Shapovalov and Stockholm Open. His love for the city and tournament is clearly showing, with the Canadian seemingly improving every match. With bludgeoning power, Shapovalov was able to take advantage of a terrible first-serve percentage (42 percent) from Felix Auger-Aliassime. He played clutch tennis in the key moments en route to a straight sets victory. Now, he faces Paul for the first time.

Here are my picks and predictions for Saturday’s ATP Tour Stockholm Open final between Tommy Paul and Denis Shapovalov (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).

Paul vs. Shapovalov Match Info

Date/Time: Saturday, November 13, 10 a.m. ETTV: Tennis ChannelLocation: Stockholm, Sweden

Paul vs. Shapovalov Odds Analysis

As a lively underdog all week, it is no surprise to see Paul yet again take on that role against the reigning champion. Unibet opened his moneyline at +155, which is the best place to bet him with competitors lining him around +140.

Shapovalov predictably comes in as the big favorite, opening at a -192 price at Unibet. Be sure to shop around, however, as DraftKings offer -170 on that same moneyline.

Paul vs. Shapovalov Picks

Games spread: Shapovalov -2.5 (-115)Set betting: Shapovalov 2-0 (+130)

Paul vs. Shapovalov Predictions

Shapovalov -2.5 (-115)

Paul achieved his career-best result by making his maiden tour-level final. Currently amidst a purple patch and playing the best tennis of his life, which he himself jokingly accredits to the pink shirt he's currently rocking, the 24-year old will try to keep his positive momentum going.

Coming back from 5-7, 5-6* down in his semifinal will surely be yet another confidence booster for the young American. Paul has been incredibly impressive on serve this week, and it improved as the match went on against Tiafoe.

However, Shapovalov was also convincing in his semifinal. Having struggled massively earlier this week, he has been looking sharper and sharper.

Shapovalov has also managed to control his aggression, hitting big groundstrokes from both wings and still playing with solid margins. Combined with the angles he created, this provided a winning rally pattern on many occasions in the semifinal. Look for more of the same in the final. At the current prices, back the Canadian to retain his title with a little bit to spare.

Shapovalov 2-0 (+138)

Whilst Paul has been proving mentally strong all week, he has historically struggled to compete with the elite. The American lost eight of his last 10 matches against top 20 player. He also lost both of his indoor hard court matchups against that group.

Shapovalov is ranked 18th in the world. When his game is firing on all cylinders (which it did last time he won the title here), he is easily top five. His swinging lefty serve and power off the ground will be difficult to contend with.

After winning the first set as the betting favorite, Shapovalov is 23-2 in his indoor hard court career. He won his last four such matches in straight sets.

If the Canadian gets off to a good start and the confidence starts to grow, he will be too difficult to stop for the maiden finalist. Back Shapovalov to grab a straight sets win over Paul.