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Roughriders vs. Lions Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: Can Adams Beat the Last Undefeated Team?

Rob Paul

Last Updated: July 13, 2024 11:00 AM EDT • 3 min 40 sec read.

BC Lions quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. looks downfield to make a pass to wide receiver Alexander Hollins during the second half of the game against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. We're backing Adams in our Roughriders vs. Lions Prediction.
BC Lions quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. looks downfield to make a pass to wide receiver Alexander Hollins during the second half of the game against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. Photo by Bruce Fedyck/USA TODAY Sports via Imagn.

Vernon Adams Jr. is playing at another level right now for the BC Lions (4-1), as they get set to take on the Saskatchewan Roughriders (4-0) on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET (TSN/RDS, CFL+) from BC Place in Vancouver, B.C.

Despite Saskatchewan being the league's last undefeated team, the Lions are a 7.5-point favorite across our best sportsbooks in Canada and are getting the shortest Grey Cup odds in the West. That's because Adams is living up to the preseason hype of being the CFL Most Outstanding Player odds favorite.

Roughriders vs. Lions prediction

(Odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Vernon Adams Jr. Over 332.5 passing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

What we saw Adams do in Week 5 against the Tiger-Cats was borderline unbelievable. That first half was easily one of the most impressive displays of quarterbacking I've ever seen. He managed to cash the Over on his passing yards (320.5) for me by halftime and finished with 383 yards and four scores.

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If the season ended today, no other player in the league would be close to Adams in the Most Outstanding Player voting. He's enjoying one of the best seasons in CFL history and hasn't thrown an interception since BC's Week 1 loss to the Toronto Argonauts. 

Adams leads the CFL in passing yards (1,752), passing touchdowns (11), and QB rating (121.7) through five games, and he's posted the fewest interceptions among QBs with at least 130 attempts (1). It's pretty clear head coach Rick Campbell knows we're witnessing something special in Adams, too, because BC is passing more than a Mike Leach air raid offense.

The former Oregon star has thrown at least 33 passes in four of five games. As a result, he's averaging 350.4 passing yards per contest. Given how potent this passing attack has been, I don't suspect the Lions will shy away from throwing the rock all over the yard against the Roughriders. That's why I'm confident taking the Over on Adams' passing yards again this week.

It certainly helps that BC hasn't missed a beat after All-Star wide receiver Keon Hatcher went down. Receivers Alexander Hollins (573 yards) and Justin McInnis (482 yards) have been two of the CFL's best pass-catchers, and they rank second and third in receiving yards, respectively.

Beyond those two, the Lions are deep, with talented playmakers like Ayden Eberhardt, William Stanback, and Jevon Cottoy, who are all among the top 35 in receiving yards. And Hatcher might even be back for this game too. So how will Saskatchewan matchup?

Rough defense for the Riders

Beyond Saskatchewan being without starting QB Trevor Harris once again, the Roughriders could be in trouble given how their secondary has been looking at times this season. 

Saskatchewan is allowing the most passing yards per game in the CFL (313) and is tied for second-last in the league in sacks (six). The Riders will likely struggle to apply pressure given how strong BC's offensive line has been this season, and Adams' ability to use his legs to extend plays.

If Saskatchewan can't get after Adams, I don't know how it's going to slow the Lions' passing game. Covering Hollins and McInnis is nearly impossible, and Adams' accuracy and poise are the best in the sport. 

With Adams needing topping 332.5 passing yards in two of his last three starts, I think he'll do it again given the Roughriders' defensive issues. If he does, a $10 bet at these odds pay an $8.70 profit.

Odds: -115 via Betway | Implied probability: 53.48%

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Roughriders vs. Lions first team to score

Lions

With Adams and Co. set to light up the Roughriders' secondary, you best believe I'm backing the Lions to score first.

Beyond the fact that BC leads the CFL in yards per game (441.4) and sits third in points per contest (29.4), I'm just not trusting Shea Patterson to lead a quick scoring drive on the road. While Patterson looked good in his first CFL start with Harris out due to a knee injury, Saskatchewan kept it simple for him against an Argos team that was repeatedly shooting itself in the foot.

Patterson benefited from Argos QB Cameron Dukes throwing four interceptions, and that won't be the case against Adams. Another reason to believe in the Lions putting points up first is because they boast one of the CFL's best kickers. Sean Whyte is 14-for-14 on field goals, including 4-for-4 from 40-plus yards this season.

A $10 winning bet on BC to score first pays a $6.58 profit.

Odds: -152 via Betway | Implied probability: 60.24%

Roughriders vs. Lions odds

Roughriders vs. Lions odds via Betway as of Friday at 11:10 a.m. ET.

TeamsMoneylineSpreadTotal
Lions-303-7.5 (-111)Over: 51.5 (-111)
Roughriderd+240+7.5 (-111)Under: 51.5 (-111)

Roughriders vs. Lions game info

  • When: Saturday, July 13 (7 p.m. ET)
  • Where: BC Place (Vancouver, B.C.)
  • How to watch: TSN/RDS, CFL+
  • Weather: 73 degrees, 6-mph winds, 10% chance of precipitation (retractable roof)
  • Favorite: Lions 7.5 (-111 via Betway)

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Written By:
Rob Paul
Rob is a Publishing Editor at Sportsbook Review. He’s been with the team since early 2024, with this being his first full-time role in the sports betting industry. Before joining SportsbookReview.com, he contributed to various sports outlets, including FanSided and Pro Football Network. During that period, he spent five years working full-time as a local community journalist, after attending Durham College for journalism and Wilfrid Laurier University for history. He previously hosted an NFL draft and college football-focused podcast where he had the opportunity to interact with future NFL players such as Maxx Crosby and Quinn Meinerz. Rob has spent multiple years working as a freelance podcast producer for numerous sports-related podcasts while making guest appearances on several college football shows. He’s also made guest appearances on SportsTalk Mississippi on several occasions to talk all things NFL draft. Rob values the way sports betting acts as a catalyst for telling stories and growing interest in certain sports, particularly FCS football, WNBA, and mid-major college basketball. He’s always been drawn to the more obscure teams and conferences in major college sports, but most of all, Rob loves using stats to find the best player props to back.