Sparks vs. Mercury WNBA Picks: Over/Under Set Far Too Low

Henry John

Last Updated: June 5, 2022 8:33 AM EDT • 4 min 2 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

The betting market is fading the Phoenix Mercury heavily as they try to snap a seven-game losing skid at home on Sunday against the Los Angeles Sparks. Are we aligned with the market? Find out in our Sparks-Mercury picks.

Among the WNBA games scheduled for Sunday is a Western Conference tilt featuring the Los Angeles Sparks and the Phoenix Mercury.

The Sparks (6-5 against the spread, 8-3 Over/Under) come into Sunday's contest having won two straight and three of their last four overall. Most recently, L.A. squeaked past Dallas in a high-scoring affair at home. The Sparks will have nearly a full week before their next game after Sunday's matchup.

As for the Mercury (4-6 ATS, 6-4 O/U), it has been a major struggle to begin the WNBA season. One would have to go all the way back to May 14 to find the last time Phoenix was victorious. The Mercury have lost seven straight since then, including a five-point road loss to the same Sparks outfit they will host on Sunday.

Here are my WNBA picks and predictions for Sunday's game between the Sparks and Mercury (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Sparks vs. Mercury Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, June 5, 6 p.m. ETTV: FacebookLocation: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ

Sparks vs. Mercury Odds

Sparks vs. Mercury Odds Analysis

The WNBA betting market has experienced a changing of the guard as far as the favorite for Sunday's showdown between Los Angeles and Phoenix. Oddsmakers initially tabbed the Mercury as a one-point home favorite. At the time of writing, the Sparks are now a consensus favorite of -1.5 across the market.

As for the game total, betting action has worked to drive the line up from an initial listing of 169.5. Bettors looking to have action on the total will need to be selective about where they place their bets as the line varies greatly between sportsbooks. While most shops have been moved up two full points to 171.5, select outlets are still sitting as low as 170.5.

Sparks vs. Mercury Key Players

Former WNBA MVP Nneka Ogwumike is the focal point for the Sparks once again this season. She comes into Sunday's game leading the team in both scoring (18 points per game) and rebounding (7.5 per game). Center Liz Cambage ranks second to Ogwumike in both categories. The team stats serve as a clear indication of the fact that L.A. prefers to play through the bigs. Guard Jordin Canada is averaging over five assists per game for the Sparks on the season to date.

One of the biggest headlines on the WNBA front in recent months has revolved around Mercury center Brittney Griner. With her return from Russia not appearing to be imminent, Phoenix remains shorthanded in the frontcourt. Tina Charles has done a nice job filling in as the starting center, but she missed the team's game on Friday and is day-to-day. The vast majority of the Mercury's offensive production comes from the lethal backcourt trio of Skylar Diggins-Smith, Diana Taurasi, and Diamond DeShields.

Sparks vs. Mercury Picks

Mercury ML (+100) ??Over 170.5 (-110) ????Sparks 1st-half team total Over 42.5 (-125) ????

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Sparks vs. Mercury Predictions

Mercury ML (+100)

Buying back on the Mercury as home underdogs is a play that runs contrary to how the WNBA betting market has moved on this game. However, the advantage that Phoenix figures to have in the backcourt in this matchup cannot be overlooked.

One could argue that the trio of Diggins-Smith, Taurasi, and DeShields is the best offensive backcourt in the entire WNBA. Taurasi in particular was abnormally quiet in scoring just 11 points when the Mercury played the Sparks in L.A. last month. If their core three guards show up, Phoenix has plenty of appeal as a home dog.

Of course, the injury status of Charles is also something bettors must monitor. Without her, the Mercury will offer very little resistance to a Sparks' frontcourt that is tough enough to defend as it is. Assuming Charles returns from her one-game absence, one has to like the Mercury on their home floor. Even without Griner, Phoenix is simply too stacked with WNBA veterans to continue losing as they have over the past month.

Over 170.5 (-110)

While the betting total has been moved up from opening, it remains inexplicably low. Considering that DraftKings' line is a full point lower than what most sportsbooks are offering, bettors can obtain market value to boot.

In the first head-to-head matchup between the Sparks and Mercury this season, the two teams combined for 193 total points. Thus, the fact that Sunday's O/U is over 20 points less than that makes absolutely no sense. This is especially true considering that both teams have numerous stats that favor a higher scoring output.

Given that the Sparks rely so heavily on Ogwumike and Cambage offensively, it's no surprise that they boast a top-three offensive rating. Unfortunately, L.A. has tended to allow just as many points as they score this season. A defensive rating of 107.6 ranks dead last in the WNBA and ensures that the Sparks are one of just three teams with a defensive rating of 107 or worse.

It just so happens that the Mercury are one of the two other teams who join L.A. in holding that distinction. Thus, two of the three worst defensive teams in the league meet Sunday. Add in the fact that both squads also rank among the five fastest WNBA teams in terms of pace and there are plenty of supporting stats to hammer the total Over.

Sparks 1st-half team total Over 42.5 (-125)

Having already hashed out the fact that offense is expected in this matchup, our game prop will focus on the first-half team total for the Sparks. Bettors can automatically feel good about the line given that the overall game total is perceived to be set too low.

When it comes to the Sparks' track record in the first half of games this season, they have largely tended to exceed 42.5 points, especially recently. L.A. has gone over this total in the first half of play in four straight games. Against the Mercury last month, the Sparks flew over the number with a 56-point first half.

Where to Bet on Sparks-Mercury Picks

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Sparks-Mercury picks made on 6/5/2022 at 7 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Henry John

Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.