Stampeders vs. Blue Bombers Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: Low-Scoring Affair in the Rain
After playing in four straight Grey Cups, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (1-4) have finally taken a step back.
And with the Calgary Stampeders (2-2) coming to town, we expect an ugly game in our Stampeders vs. Blue Bombers predictions.
The Bombers are a 5-point home favorite across our best sportsbooks in Canada for Friday's game at 8:30 p.m. ET from Princess Auto Stadium in Winnipeg, Man.
With neither of these teams jumping out as Grey Cup odds contenders, points may be hard to come by, especially with weather probably a factor.
Stampeders vs. Blue Bombers prediction
(Odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Under 47.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The last time the Blue Bombers played in the rain, they scored just 19 points and were upset by the Ottawa Redblacks 23-19. That game was also delayed by lightning, and this one could follow suit, with the Weather Network expecting a "risk of strong thunderstorms."
Even if the weather holds off, I don't suspect we'll see a boatload of points in this matchup for two reasons. Neither of these teams has shown much offensively, and both have been dealing with a string of injuries to start the season.
It's definitely been worse for Winnipeg. QB Zach Collaros, who opened the season as a CFL Most Outstanding Player odds favorite, has yet to throw a touchdown and has four interceptions in four starts.
To make matters worse, he missed last week's game after exiting the game against Calgary on June 29, a 22-19 loss, with a thorax injury.
While Collaros was a full participant in practice this week and will likely start, he's listed as questionable, with the injury potentially still bothering him. Even star running back Brady Oliveira isn't healthy. Last year's Most Outstanding Canadian is questionable with a shoulder injury after already missing a game with a knee injury.
Both are expected to play, but the Bombers still rank last in the CFL in yards per game (323.8), passing yards per game (218.6), QB rating (72), and points per game (19.8).
Calgary isn't much better sitting second-last in yards per game (338.8) and third-last in points per game (24.2). The Stamps starting running back, Dedrick Mills, will play despite being banged up with an oblique injury.
They'll need him because QB Jake Maier has been sporadic this season. He's thrown an interception in three straight games and looked awful against the Montreal Alouettes last week, averaging just 3.8 YPA.
Defense reigns supreme
If both of these offenses are flimsier than a gravy-soaked french fry, what's kept them at least semi-competitive this season? Defense.
It may not always win championships, but it sure does help cash Under bets. And Winnipeg's has been one of the best in the CFL this season. The Bombers allow the second-fewest points per game (22.8) and the second-fewest passing yards per game (251).
Injuries have had an impact here, too, but star linebacker Adam Bighill is expected to play despite being listed as questionable. He's the heart and soul of a defense with a killer pass rush led by Devin Adams and Willie Jefferson.
Calgary's group isn't too shabby either, allowing the third-lowest QB rating (93.6) and fourth-fewest points (24.8). Although they play a bend, don't break style, having opportunistc players like Demerio Houston helps. Houston is second in the league in interceptions (2).
Between the weather, the offenses being banged up and struggling, and both defenses being good enough, I think we're in for Winnipeg's sixth straight Under of the season. A $10 bet on these odds pays a $9.01 profit.
Odds: -111 via Betway | Implied probability: 52.61%
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Stampeders vs. Blue Bombers first team to score
Blue Bombers
In a game I don't think will have many touchdowns, kickers come into play.
But that's what makes this so tough as both of these teams have top-tier kickers. Calgary kicker Rene Paredes has yet to miss a field goal this season and he's 6-for-6 from 40-plus. Meanwhile, Winnipeg kicker Sergio Castillo is 5-for-6 from 40-plus and drilled the longest field goal of the season thus far, 60 yards.
So really it comes down to which offense can inch their way into field goal range first and I have to lean the Blue Bombers.
The Stampeders defense is prone to giving up big runs - it allows the highest yards per carry to opponents in the league (6.1). And though Oliveira is banged up, he's coming off his best game of the year - 129 rushing yards on 23 carries.
If Winnipeg does score first, a $10 bet pays a $6.58 profit.
Odds: -152 via Betway | Implied probability: 60.24%
Stampeders vs. Blue Bombers odds
Stampeders vs. Blue Bombers odds via Betway as of Thursday at 10:30 a.m. ET.
| Teams | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Bombers | -200 | -5 (-111) | Over: 47.5 (-111) |
| Stampeders | +165 | +5 (-111) | Under: 47.5 (-111) |
Stampeders vs. Blue Bombers game info
- When: Friday, July 12 (8:30 p.m. ET)
- Where: Princess Auto Stadium (Winnipeg, Man.)
- How to watch: TSN/RDS, CFL+
- Weather: 81 degrees, 13-mph winds, 40% chance of precipitation
- Favorite: Blue Bombers -5 (-111 via Betway)
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