NASCAR Betting Odds at Homestead-Miami: Straight Talk Wireless 400 Predictions, Expert Picks & Long Shots
Who will punch the second ticket to the Championship 4? The NASCAR playoffs continue today at 2:30 p.m. ET (NBC) as we offer our Straight Talk Wireless 400 predictions, expert picks, and long shots at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
- Kyle Larson is the favorite to win today's race across our best sportsbooks
- Tyler Reddick, who won the pole Saturday in qualifying, has the second-shortest odds to secure a spot in the championship race in Phoenix
- We have our eyes on Christopher Bell, who won this race last year, as part of our best NASCAR prop bets and winner predictions
Here is our race preview for today based on the latest NASCAR betting odds.
NASCAR odds at Homestead-Miami
Homestead-Miami raceday odds from our best sports betting sites; last updated Oct. 27
| Driver | Odds (BetMGM) | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +300 | 25% | $30 |
| Tyler Reddick | +450 | 18.18% | $45 |
| Christopher Bell | +500 | 16.67% | $50 |
| Denny Hamlin | +800 | 11.11% | $80 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| William Byron | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1300 | 7.14% | $130 |
| Chase Elliott | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Brad Keselowski | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
| Ty Gibbs | +2200 | 4.35% | $220 |
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2024 Straight Talk Wireless 400 predictions, expert picks
NASCAR picks made Sunday at 6 a.m. ET; odds subject to change. Confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Toyota to win (+115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Christopher Bell to win (+550 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
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How to bet NASCAR today at Homestead-Miami
Homestead-Miami Speedway is a beloved track on the Cup Series circuit for its unique symmetrical layout and propensity for high-speed racing.
The 1.5-mile track features progressive banking of 18-20 degrees around the turns and 4 degrees along the straightaways, which leads to extreme tire wear and high speeds for an intermediate track.
We've already seen the playoff intensity pick up over the last few weeks, and we could be in for another dramatic finish in today's race.
Can Bell repeat at Homestead?
I'm a bit surprised that Bell isn't the favorite across our best sports betting sites to win this race given how he dominated last week and his history at this track.
Bell won last year's playoff race at this track after rallying from a 13th-place starting spot and leading 26 laps to ultimately punch his ticket to the Championship 4.
He's also finished second in back-to-back races, including last week's near-win when he started from the pole and led 155 laps before a shift in pit strategy relegated him to another runner-up result.
I like his chances of breaking through today in a race that his team can ill-afford to lose if it wants to ensure a chance to flex its muscle at Phoenix for the title.
Kyle Larson has the better overall pedigree at this track, boasting five top-five finishes over his last eight races at Homestead with an authoritative win in 2022. That's why I like his odds to lead all Chevrolets at -120 via Caesars.
Yet he crashed in last year's race and missed the top 10 with more car troubles last week. He's dealing at a shorter price to win the race than Bell, whose best odds at Caesars would turn a winning $10 bet into a $55 profit.
Caesars is also offering an odds boost of +650 with a max bet of $100 in one of the best sportsbook promos for today's race.
That makes it even easier to recommend a bet on Bell to lead the way for Joe Gibbs Racing, which has won this race in three of the last five years.
Toyota dominating starting grid
Bell isn't the only threat to win for Toyota, which is represented with four of the top five favorites at BetMGM and five of the top eight drivers in the starting grid.
Leading the field to start is Tyler Reddick, who was the fastest car in practice and in qualifying to secure a spot in the front row for the third straight week.
Reddick won the pole at Darlington - the track most similar to this one - and led 174 laps before a late incident derailed his day, and he won the pole at Indianapolis before finishing second.
Next to Bell in the second row is fellow Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin, who won this race in 2020 and has captured six of the last nine poles at Homestead.
Hamlin had finished in the top 12 in 10 straight races before an accident last year, when he led 31 laps with strong finishes in Stage 1 (sixth) and Stage 2 (fourth).
That's to say nothing of Martin Truex Jr., who won the pole last year and has four top-three finishes in seven races here dating back to his victory in 2017.
That's a lot of firepower for Toyota, which is dealing between +100 and -105 across most of our best sports betting apps. It's also why I'm particularly compelled by these +115 odds via DraftKings, which could turn a $10 bet into a $11.50 profit.
Will we see another NASCAR overtime?
By now, there isn't much more to say about my favorite prop bet in NASCAR.
We haven't seen overtime in the last two weeks, but we had seen nine of the previous 14 races (64.3%) stretch beyond the scheduled final lap with the most recent capping a crazy race at Talladega.
That's seven races in a 14-week stretch that were extended by a late caution within the final few laps, even though Caesars continues to offer this prop at plus-money odds each and every week.
We've only seen three overtime finishes at Homestead-Miami Speedway since the Cup Series started racing there in 1999. Most of those races were for the championship, which aren't exactly typical racing conditions.
With this race still awarding a spot to the Championship 4, don't be surprised if we see some late aggression bring out another caution. If that happens, a $10 bet at these +400 odds would return a $40 profit.
NASCAR long shots today at Homestead-Miami
This race tends to be one that rewards veterans who can manage tire wear and take advantage of the high-line near the wall.
That's why the list of previous winners is chock-full of champions and future Hall of Fame drivers - which isn't exactly screaming for a long-shot winner this weekend.
That said, here are a few drivers that could surprise in today's race:
Chase Elliott (+1800)
Are we sure that Elliott should be dealing at such long odds to win this race?
The Hendrick Motorsports driver always seems to be in the mix at this track, and he finished second in 2020 before teammates Larson and William Byron won the next two years.
Elliott is starting seventh for today's race and likely needs to win to stay alive in the playoffs. If he does, a $10 bet at DraftKings would return $180 in profit.
Kyle Busch (+3500)
Remember when Busch was arguably the hottest driver in the Cup Series? He's since finished outside the top 12 in six straight races, and he'll start 17th today.
Here's the good news: Busch won the pole at Darlington earlier this season and has excelled at this track over the years, boasting an average finish of 6.3 with two wins over his last nine races at Homestead.
The two-time champion is still seeking his first win of the season, and a $10 bet at BetMGM would return $350 in profit if he finally gets it today.
Ty Gibbs (+3500)
Surely one of these days we'll finally cash a long-shot ticket on Gibbs, who is still searching for his first career win despite a handful of close calls.
The 22-year-old finished second at Darlington back in May and ran seventh with a top-10 result in both stages of last year's race at Homestead. He also finished second at this track in his only trip here in the Xfinity Series.
He's dealing as short as +2200 to win today, and these +3500 odds via DraftKings would turn a $10 bet into a $350 profit if that happens.
Best NASCAR long shots at Homestead-Miami
- Chase Elliott (+1800 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
- Kyle Busch (+3500 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
- Ty Gibbs (+3500 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
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Best NASCAR prop bets at Homestead-Miami
- Kyle Larson top Chevrolet (-120 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Christopher Bell top three (+150 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Race to go to overtime (+400 via Caesars) ⭐
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Straight Talk Wireless 400 past winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Christopher Bell | Joe Gibbs Racing |
| 2022 | Kyle Larson | Hendrick Motorsports |
| 2021 | William Byron | Hendrick Motorsports |
| 2020 | Denny Hamlin | Joe Gibbs Racing |
| 2019 | Kyle Busch | Joe Gibbs Racing |
| 2018 | Joey Logano | Team Penske |
| 2017 | Martin Truex Jr. | Furniture Row Racing |
| 2016 | Jimmie Johnson | Hendrick Motorsports |
| 2015 | Kyle Busch | Joe Gibbs Racing |
| 2014 | Kevin Harvick | Stewart-Haas Racing |
How to watch NASCAR at Homestead-Miami: Straight Talk Wireless 400
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 27 at 2:30 p.m. ET
- Track: Homestead-Miami Raceway (Homestead, Fla.)
- Length: 1.5 miles (267 laps, 400.5 total miles)
- How to watch: NBC
- Defending winner: Christopher Bell
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