Toyota/Save Mart 350 Prop Picks: Value Lies in Top Ford Prop

Isaiah Sirois

Last Updated: June 10, 2022 8:55 AM EDT • 2 min 29 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

After a thrilling debut in St. Louis, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Sonoma Raceway for the second road-course event of the year. Follow along for our Toyota/Save Mart 350 prop picks.

Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Larson won the last two events at Sonoma Raceway. But attentive bettors should note that those races came on different layouts: NASCAR used the carousel, not the chute, in 2019 and 2021. The Cup Series will return to the chute this year, and that promises higher-speed racing all the way into Sonoma's signature hairpin Turn 11.

That said, avoiding the carousel only affects roughly half of the track. As a result, we won't totally discard the results from the last two seasons, but we'll target drivers who consistently perform well on all road courses instead. That kind of adaptability will be necessary since NASCAR hasn't raced on the chute in four years.

Here are my top prop picks for NASCAR's Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway (odds via BetMGM and DraftKings Sportsbook).

Toyota/Save Mart 350 Prop Picks

Top 5: Chase Elliott (-145 via DraftKings)Top 10: Erik Jones (+135 via BetMGM)Top Ford: Ryan Blaney (+700 via DraftKings)https://twitter.com/johnewing/status/1400863848006139904?s=20&t=a7f0DZU9b93-KLnMAUJSlA

Toyota/Save Mart 350 Prop Predictions

Top 5 finish: Elliott (-145)

Chase Elliott owns the best road-course resume of any NASCAR Cup Series driver ever. In just 20 road-course races, Elliott owns seven wins, 12 top-fives, and an average finish of 7.7. Only two drivers, Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart, own more road-course wins than Elliott. Gordon won nine times in 47 starts, and Stewart won eight times in 34 starts. Elliott already has more road-course wins than Richard Petty, Bobby Allison, and Dan Gurney.

That makes him a safe bet for a strong showing on Sunday. Elliott should compete for the win like he usually does on these tracks. We've seen him finish no worse than fourth in six of his last seven road-course starts. Since 2020, Elliott owns an average finish of 4.9. The juice on this line isn't great, but the odds of Elliott scoring another top five at Sonoma are probably better than the implied 59.2% chance the books are giving him.

Top 10 finish: Jones (+135)

Erik Jones isn't a true road-course ace, but we've often seen him beat expectations at these tracks. His average road-course finishing position of 14.6 ranks ninth among active drivers, and he owns eight top-10 results in 18 starts. Though six of those top-10 finishes came when he still drove a Toyota, Jones' No. 43 Chevrolet has looked fast lately.

Jones piloted his No. 43 to a top 10 at Circuit of the Americas earlier this season. He also recorded a top 10 last year at the Indy Road Course in this car. In his eight road-course starts since leaving Joe Gibbs Racing, Jones owns two top 10s, four top 15s, and seven top 20s. But with how fast Petty GMS Racing has looked this season, Jones could easily score his ninth top 10 at a road course.

Top Ford: Blaney (+700)

Like LeAnn Rimes, this bet is all about value. Ryan Blaney's odds for finishing as the top Ford driver sit at +325 at BetMGM, which is less than half what we're getting at DraftKings Sportsbook. That's absolutely nuts for several reasons.

Blaney owns the best average finish for Ford drivers this season. He also finished as the top Ford driver back at the Circuit of the Americas and he owns the second-best average finishing position among all active drivers. Blaney also finished as the top Ford driver in the 2019 race at Sonoma. Yet DraftKings Sportsbook has given Joey Logano (+250), Chase Briscoe (+300), Austin Cindric (+350), and Aric Almirola (+450) much shorter odds on this market. Wild.

Where to Bet on the Toyota/Save Mart 350

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook Caesars Sportsbook DraftKings Sportsbook PointsBet BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Toyota/Save Mart 350 picks made 6/10/2022 at 12:53 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at Sportsbook Review specializing in basketball, motorsports, and football. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you can always find his columns stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA, Olympic, and FIBA markets for Sportsbook Review and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar most weekends. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree from Emory University and is currently attending Vanderbilt Law School.