2024 Toyota/Save Mart 350 Odds, Expert Picks: NASCAR Race Preview for Sonoma Raceway

The latest Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds have Kyle Larson as the favorite to win Sunday's race at Sonoma Raceway, and we have you covered with our our expert picks based on the best NASCAR odds from our best sports betting sites. 

Austin Cindric claimed his first victory of the season at WWT Raceway In last week's NASCAR event. Scheduled to begin at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX,  the upcoming Toyota/Save Mart 350 has generated feverish excitement for another potential first-time winner.

Despite not yet securing a win in this season's 15 races, Martin Truex Jr. opened as the favorite to defend his title at Sonoma, where he has the last four races. Close behind him was Kyle Larson, the favorite according to the latest NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds. With a competitive field vying for victory in Sunday's road race, the stage is set for an exhilarating event.

Here are the latest Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds and our expert picks for Sunday's race at Sonoma Raceway.

Odds to win Toyota/Save Mart 350 2024

(Odds as of Sunday at 9:40 a.m. ET)

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Sonoma Raceway track analysis

This is just the second road course of the season and one of five non-ovals on the NASCAR schedule this year. But this particular race comes with a twist.

While the road course at Sonoma - which features a 1.99-mile, 12-turn configuration for this weekend - has been a fixture of the Cup Series for 35 years, it was repaved during the offseason. The result is a much slicker track than the one that traditionally favored drivers who could manage tire wear on the previously aging circuit.

This is also a track that will be tougher to pass on without cautions, which should be infrequent if they occur at all beyond stage breaks. That places an extra premium on qualifying order on Saturday and track position on Sunday, and those with speed heading into this weekend should be rewarded for it early on.

Only four active drivers have a win at this track: Martin Truex Jr. (four), Kyle Busch (two), Daniel Suarez, and Kyle Larson. Given the repave and the importance of gaining track position, I'm less interested in drivers with previous success at Sonoma and am instead in targeting those with proven history on road courses in general.

Toyota/Save Mart 350 predictions, race preview

When previewing any race at Sonoma, you have to start with Martin Truex Jr. (+600), whose four career wins here are the most by any driver. He won this race last year and will look to become the first repeat winner since ... Truex himself in 2018-19.

Because of his success here, I can't knock anyone for betting him to repeat on Sunday. With the repave and Truex's struggles getting to the front of the pack as of late, I don't love laying the short odds, though, so he won't be on my betting card.

At a similar price, I'd much rather back Christopher Bell (+850), whose No. 20 Toyota is arguably the fastest in the field right now. He won the rain-shortened Coca-Cola 600 two weeks ago and likely would have won last week at St. Louis before a late engine issue knocked him back to seventh.

He also finished second at the Circuit of the Americas (COTA) back in March - the only previous road race this season - and surely would have won if that race were just a few laps longer:

Chase Elliott (+950) is a popular pick this week to pick up his second win of the season. His seven career wins on road courses are the most among active drivers, and he leads the field in average finish at Sonoma (12.1) and average finish this season (9.8).

He's struggled to close at this track, so I'm not in love with his outright odds. That said, I do like his chances to finish in the top five after doing so three times in his last five races here and five of his last nine races overall.

Looking further down the board, I love this value on Ross Chastain (+2500), who is one of the best road-course drivers in the field and notoriously tough to pass on green flag laps. He finished seventh at COTA, where he won in 2022, and has fielded the fifth-best average finish at this track (14.3) despite ranking outside the top 10 in pre-qualifying odds.

Another long shot who has my attention is Ryan Blaney (+3500), the 2023 Cup Series champion who is still looking for his first win of the year.

He nearly captured that elusive checkered flag last week before literally running out of gas ahead of the final lap, but he had the fastest practices times Friday and has three top-10s in his last four starts at Sonoma.

It's a similar story for teammate Joey Logano (+4000), who has two top-fives in his last three tries here with the track's third-best average finish (12.9).

Toyota/Save Mart 350 expert picks to win

Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best sports betting apps.

• Christopher Bell (+850 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Ross Chastain (+2500 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
• Ryan Blaney (+3500 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
• Joey Logano (+4000 via bet365) ⭐⭐

Past Toyota/Save Mart 350 winners

How to watch Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway

• Date: Sunday, June 9 at 3:30 p.m. ET
• Track: Sonoma Raceway (Sonoma, Calif.)
• Length: 1.99 miles (110 laps, 218 total miles)
• How to watch: FOX
• Defending winner: Martin Truex Jr.

Toyota/Save Mart 350 picks made Friday at 7 p.m. ET

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