Valero Texas Open Expert Picks, PGA Tour Bet Slips, and Cheat Sheet: Pad Your Masters Brankroll
Our PGA Tour betting experts offer up their top picks for the Valero Texas Open as Jordan Spieth attempts to defend his title this week.
Jordan Spieth won the Valero Texas Open by two strokes last year to end a nearly four-year winless drought on the PGA Tour. However, he comes into this week behind consensus tournament favorite Rory McIlroy. McIlroy’s making just his second career appearance at TPC San Antonio, but he’s the top-ranked golfer in the field at No. 9 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR).
Other notables in the field include WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play third-place finisher and former Valero Texas Open champ Corey Conners, as well as reigning Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama, and Bryson DeChambeau.
Below, our PGA Tour experts offer up their picks and best bets for the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio.
Valero Texas Open Expert Picks
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/OoVFN/2/
See ALSO: Valero Texas Open Picks and Preview
Valero Texas Open Picks to Win
Tony Finau (+4000 via PointsBet)
Tony Finau enters this week at No. 23 in the OWGR. He has three missed cuts through eight events to start 2022, and he had a first-round exit from match play last week. However, these odds in this top-heavy field are far too high to be ignored.
Finau is the sixth-best golfer in the field by the world rankings, but shares just the 12th-best odds to win. Caesars Sportsbook is offering market-low odds of +3500, which are tied for eighth-best in this field.
He missed the cut in this event last year, but he tied for third in 2017 and has averaged 0.43 strokes gained on the field across 14 total rounds played at this venue. His iron play has remained his main strength this season with 1.02 SG: tee-to-green and 0.73 SG: approach per round. Finau needs to be better in the short game, but we can expect it to begin to round into form ahead of another visit to Augusta National Golf Club for the Masters. - McLaren
Jordan Spieth (+1600 via Caesars)
The case for backing Jordan Spieth as the outright winner this week is compelling. In his career at TPC San Antonio, Spieth has averaged 2.06 SG: total over 22 rounds played in the Valero Texas Open.
Additionally, TPC San Antonio closely resembles the skillset needed to be successful at Monterey Peninsula Country Club. This is a course used on the PGA Tour during the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Earlier this season, Spieth finished second at Pebble Beach, demonstrating how well this style of course fits his game.
While he is one of the shorter shots on the board, +1600 is still a very attractive price for someone who is considered a favorite. Only Caesars is offering the +1600; he is shorter at FanDuel Sportsbook, where his price is +1100. - Metler
Patton Kizzire (+6000 via PointsBet)
Patton Kizzire enters this tournament in solid form, coming off the Florida swing - not finishing worse than 33rd in three events and with a solid T-22 showing at The Players Championship. He played exceptionally well last season in Texas, with two third-place finishes and a T-9 in this event.
SG: approach is a vital statistic in this event, and Kizzire ranks fifth on Tour over his last 24 rounds with 16.2 strokes gained. Additionally, he showed a propensity to excel here last year with 8.1 strokes gained on approach, which was a career-high for a single tournament.
We can look at Kizzire to get off to a hot start, as he ranks eighth on Tur in first-round scoring at 68.21. Between his recent form, especially on approach, and an affinity for golf in Texas, Kizzire could pay dividends this weekend. - Anderson
SEE ALSO: Masters Picks
Valero Texas Open Longshot Picks
Matt Kuchar (+8000 via PointsBet)
Matt Kuchar enters this week at risk of missing out on an invite to the Masters for the first time since 2009. Once ranked as high as No. 4 in the world, Kuchar has slid to 148th with three missed cuts through six events this year.
With plenty of motivation on his side, Kuchar returns to a course where has had a good amount of success. He has averaged 1.35 total strokes gained per round across 36 career rounds at TPC San Antonio, including a T-7 finish in 2019 and a T-12 last year. Amid his struggles this season, he is still averaging 0.67 SG: around-the-green and 0.44 SG: putting per round.
Kuchar can lean on those traits with this venue taking the driver out of the hands of the longer hitters in the field. - McLaren
Matthew NeSmith (+10000 via DraftKings)
With my longshot pick, I plan to ride the hot hand and play a rogue number. The only sportsbook that offers a number such as +10000 on Matthew NeSmith to win this week is DraftKings. Everywhere else, he is well below the +10000 mark. At PointsBet, NeSmith can be purchased at odds of just +7000.
At the Valspar Championship, NeSmith finished T-3 and gained strokes in every major category. A golfer averaging 0.57 SG: approach this season should not have a price of +10000 to win the Valero Texas Open.
NeSmith has played TPC San Antonio once and finished T-34 with 0.44 strokes gained per round. Also in 2020, he finished T-11 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which uses a golf course that requires the same skillset as TPC San Antonio. At +10000, I strongly recommend NeSmith as a longshot pick. - Metler
Brendan Steele (+7000 via PointsBet)
Brendan Steele is another player entering in solid form - ranking second on Tour over the past 24 rounds with 19.6 strokes gained: off-the-tee.
Driving distance and accuracy are critical this weekend and are precisely where Steele thrives - gaining 2.9 strokes on the field in driving accuracy across his past five starts.
Steele's kryptonite has long been his putter, as he has lost strokes in just over 60% of events played the past couple of seasons.
However, all it takes is a few good days with the flat stick to remain in the mix, and he has shown in the past he's capable of that - winning this event in 2011. Coming off solid starts at difficult events, most recently finishing T13 at The Players Championship, look for Steele to capitalize on a top-heavy field. - Anderson
Valero Texas Open Top Matchup Picks
Bryson DeChambeau (+102) vs. Si Woo Kim (via FanDuel)
After battling injuries, Bryson DeChambeau will tee it up this week for just his sixth event of the 2021-22 PGA Tour season. The inactivity has dropped him to No. 14 in the OWGR. He returned to play at the match play last week but failed to advance out of the group stage.
Even amid the struggles, DeChambeau should not be a betting underdog against Si Woo Kim, who enters this week at No. 54 in the OWGR. The longest hitter on the PGA Tour is also averaging 0.93 SG: putting per round this season. He could actually be helped out by the tight fairways of TPC San Antonio, as they’ll force the driver out of his hands.
A more cautious approach could help DeChambeau get back on track before a visit to Augusta National. - McLaren
Finau (+100) vs. Adam Hadwin (via DraftKings)
While Finau is not in top form right now, you can't give me a plus number on him in a matchup with Adam Hadwin and expect me not to take it. In spite of his recent struggles, Finau has gained strokes on approach in seven out of his last eight tournaments. For Finau, the ball striking is still there, it is just his putting that has hindered him.
Across 10 rounds played at TPC San Antonio, Hadwin has lost 0.50 total strokes per round. If someone is laying a -120 price and they're losing strokes at the tournament they're favored at, I have to bet against them.
In 2017, Finau tied for third in this event. Despite his recent struggles, he is still a more skilled player than Hadwin, and he should not be catching +100 in this matchup. Whatever your opinion of Finau may be at this time, the price is too good to pass up. - Metler
Finau (+100) vs. Hadwin (via DraftKings)
Finau comes to Texas in poor form, with nary a finish inside the top 10 this season.
He made the cut in only two of his last five stroke-play events. Odd, considering his nickname used to be "Top-10 Tony."
Finau has a third-place finish at this event in the past and played well in the match play last weekend - gaining strokes overall in the event despite not advancing out of his group.
Even more encouraging was that he made eight birdies in his defeat of Xander Schauffele, showing he may be rounding into form ahead of the Masters.
Hadwin has undoubtedly been playing well with two straight top-10 finishes, but Finau is the superior golfer, and I'll back him without laying juice any day of the week. - Anderson
SEE ALSO: Valero Texas Open Prop Picks and Matchups
Valero Texas Open Top Prop Picks
Top Asian Player: Takumi Kanaya (+850 via FanDuel)
Going through the nationality markets, the top Asian pool is the one I feel is the most exploitable. While it requires fading Matsuyama, the next four-to-five golfers are basically a wash, and the sportsbooks agree. The odds on Kim, K.H. Lee, Anirban Lahiri, Takumi Kanaya, and even C.T. Pan vary wildly.
Kim has the second-best odds to win of any Asian golfer in this field, behind only Matsuyama. However, it is Kanaya who is the second-highest-ranked Asian golfer by the OWGR at No. 49. He reached his career-best ranking with a Round of 16 berth at the match play last week. A three-time winner on the Japanese Tour, this was his best finish in limited PGA Tour action.
Lee and Kim have an edge in course history over Kanaya, but we’ll take the value for this higher-ranked golfer at +850. - McLaren
Top South African: Dylan Frittelli (+195 via FanDuel)
At FanDuel, Dylan Frittelli and Branden Grace are co-favorites at +195 for the top South African spot. The odds offered by FanDuel should be closer to those offered by BetMGM, where Frittelli is a +162 favorite and Grace has odds of +210.
Their course histories at TPC San Antonio are almost identical. Frittelli averages 0.81 SG: total and Grace averages 0.90 SG: total. The main difference between the two is that Grace's success at the tournament took place several years ago.
Even though they share the same course history, it is in their current form that Frittelli establishes an advantage over Grace in this prop. On the season, Grace is losing 0.62 total strokes per round, whereas Frittelli is losing only 0.06 strokes per round. Over the last few tournaments, Frittelli has also played much better golf. He has averaged more than 0.64 SG: total in each of his last four events. I am inclined to back Frittelli at the +195 price point based on FanDuel's pricing, which gives both Grace and Frittelli co-favorite status. - Metler
Top Asian Player: Si Woo Kim (+275 via DraftKings)
Kim resides in Texas and has finished inside the top 25 at this event twice. He played very well last week in match play, ranking fifth in strokes gained: total.
His only real competition for this spot is Matsuyama, who has been battling a back injury and will be defending his green jacket next week in Augusta - so his focus might be elsewhere.
Lee is always a threat on TPC tracks, but Kim is far more talented. - Anderson
Picks to Fade
Abraham Ancer
Abraham Ancer made the cut in each of his previous four appearances in this event, but he hasn’t finished better than last year’s T-23. He’s averaging a lackluster 0.34 total strokes gained on the field across his 16 rounds at TPC San Antonio.
His quarterfinal finish in last week’s match play was his best finish through nine international events this year. However, his 2021-22 form doesn’t suggest that success will continue this week, or next. Ancer is losing 0.37 strokes per round around the green. His typically strong iron game has also been subpar with just 0.06 SG: approach and SG: tee-to-green for the season.
Ancer is a consensus fifth by the odds to win this week. While he’s fourth in the field by the OWGR to suggest some possible value, his current weaknesses don’t align with success at this venue.
DeChambeau (+200 to miss the cut via BetMGM)
DeChambeau returned from injury last week and played in the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. That was his first tournament since withdrawing from the Saudi International at the beginning of February.
After missing over a month of competitive golf, DeChambeau went 0-2-1 and placed last in his group. In his career, DeChambeau has participated at the Valero Texas Open twice, in 2016 and 2017. Both times he missed the cut.
DeChambeau might also miss the cut due to the fact that he is only using this tournament as a form of practice in preparation for the Masters. This is a common practice on the PGA Tour and DeChambeau might be trying to miss the cut in order to make it to Augusta National by Saturday. DeChambeau's highest price to miss the cut can be found at BetMGM, where he is listed at +200. - Metler
Matsuyama
Matsuyama hasn’t played in nearly a month and comes in with injury risk. He withdrew at the last minute from The Players Championship and will have a lot on his mind as Augusta looms.
I would prefer to look at Corey Connors in this price range. - Anderson
Where to Bet on the PGA Tour
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM
SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.
Related Articles
