Wells Fargo Championship Odds, Picks, and PGA Tour Preview: McIlroy Defends at New Location

Several PGA Tour stars return to play this week for their final tuneup prior to the second major of 2022. Below, we analyze the odds and preview TPC Potomac before making our picks to win the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship.

Rory McIlroy will attempt to defend his third title at the Wells Fargo Championship this week, but he'll need to do so at a new venue. The tournament has moved from Quail Hollow Club to TPC Potomac in Potomac, Maryland in 2022, with Quail Hollow hosting the Presidents Cup in late September.

McIlroy will face a stronger field than Jon Rahm defeated last week during the Mexico Open. But it's still a relatively unimpressive field two weeks away from the second major of 2022, with just five of the top-25 golfers on the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) in attendance. While some big names are likely to play the AT&T Byron Nelson in Texas next week, the PGA Championship will be the next time out for most of the biggest stars in golf.

Here are my top outright picks for the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship at TPC Potomac.

Wells Fargo Championship Odds

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SEE ALSO: U.S. Open Odds and Picks 2022

Wells Fargo Championship Odds Analysis

Just like for last week's Mexico Open, the odds to win the Wells Fargo Championship vary wildly across our top-rated U.S. sportsbooks beyond a heavy consensus favorite. Sure, Rahm pulled through as the winner last week, but doing so by just a single stroke at odds as low as +350 should serve as a warning against eating that much chalk when betting on golf.

McIlroy carries an implied win probability as high as 12.50% through PointsBet this week. The books seem to be looking to take advantage of those wanting to back the field's biggest star and a three-time winner of this event. However, McIlroy has never played at Potomac professionally, with the venue last hosting the Quicken Loans National in 2017 and 2018.

Tony Finau finished as a co-runner-up during the Mexico Open last week. He entered the tournament with odds around +2000 against the weak field, and his odds have been raised only slightly against the stiffer competition.

DraftKings Sportsbook looks most favorably upon Russell Henley to win while giving him +2000 odds. FanDuel Sportsbook is offering higher odds nearly across the board, including a price of +3200 on Henley.

The odds are suppressed on Corey Conners this week. While the Canadian enters in excellent form, he's just the seventh-best golfer in attendance who's on the OWGR, but the outright odds slot Connors as the second-best.

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Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here.

TPC Potomac Course Profile

Par: 70Length: 7,160 yardsGreens: Bentgrass

TPC Potomac was the host of the Booz Allen Classic from 1987 to 2006, but it's only been home to the Quicken Loans National twice since. Streams and creeks wind throughout the course, and it features Scottish-style bunkers.

The course has been extended slightly since Francesco Molinari's eight-stroke win during the 2018 Quicken Loans National over Ryan Armour at -21. Only seven golfers in shot -10 or better over 72 holes, with eight holes playing under par. Kyle Stanley won in a playoff over Charles Howell III at -7 in 2017.

Tree-lined fairways and rolling terrain put an emphasis on accuracy off the tee. Strokes gained: approach was also a key stat for those atop the leaderboard for the 2018 Quicken Loans National. Ryan Palmer was able to tie for eighth despite losing 0.13 strokes per round with the putter. Fellow top-10 finishers Beau Hossler and Chesson Hadley lost strokes around the greens over four rounds.

The most common par-4 range at TPC Potomac is 450-500 yards, though three par 4s are also shorter than 400 yards. Two of the par 3s top 200 yards, and the two par 5s check in at 619 and 560 yards.

Wells Fargo Championship Key Stats

Our key stats for the PGA Tour's return to TPC Potomac will focus on:

Strokes gained: approachDriving accuracyApproaches from 175-200 yardsPar 4 efficiency: 450-500 yardsPar 3 scoringBogey avoidance

There isn't much course history to use this week, but we can tailor our model to the leaderboards from the 2017 and 2018 Quicken Loans National. Value can be found in typically less-attractive shorter hitters with higher accuracy and strong iron games.

Molinari, who won at TPC Potomac in his only appearance to date, is the course history leader with 5.13 total strokes gained on the field per round. He's as high as +12500 to win this week at BetMGM. ,

Sung Kang leads with 2.64 total strokes gained per round among those with eight rounds played at this venue.

Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Marc Leishman (+3600 via FanDuel)Paul Casey (+4100 via FanDuel)Tyler Duncan (+18000 via DraftKings)

Who Will Win the Wells Fargo Championship?

Leishman (+3600)

We're getting our best number on Marc Leishman to win the Wells Fargo Championship at FanDuel. The 46th-ranked golfer in the OWGR claimed his only top-10 finish of the year thus far at the Sentry Tournament of Champions in January. He's also missed just one cut through nine international events and has been off since a T-30 finish at the Masters. Leishman is +2000 to win outright at DraftKings, making this number a steal.

He tied for fifth at TPC Potomac in 2017 and for 13th in 2018, averaging 2.02 total strokes gained per round. He's gaining strokes per round in all key stats in 2022, and although Leishman is just 128th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy, the 38-year-old is 50th in par 4 efficiency: 450-500 yards, first in par 3 scoring, and 24th in bogey avoidance.

The big Australian shares the 11th-best odds to win at FanDuel. He's listed as the 14th-best player in the field on the OWGR. We're paying a premium, but the price is still discounting his course history advantage at the rarely used venue.

Casey (+4100)

Paul Casey is making his first career appearance at TPC Potomac. It's also his first stroke-play event since a third-place finish at The Players Championship after withdrawing from the Masters due to an injury prior to the start of his first round. He enters this week ranked 26th in the world and is the sixth-best golfer in the field by that measure. However, he shares just the 11th-best odds to win.

The Englishman is second in this field with 1.03 SG: approach for the 2021-22 season. His 32-feet, nine-inches to the pin on approaches from 175-200 yards would rank 60th on Tour if he had logged enough events played to qualify. More importantly, his 2.97 scoring average on par 3s would rank in the top 10 on Tour.

Duncan (+18000)

Tyler Duncan enters this week just 382nd in the OWGR, and he's coming off of a missed cut at the Mexico Open last week. However, he tied for 12th at the more comparable Harbour Town Golf Links during the RBC Heritage. Duncan also produced a stretch of three straight top-35 finishes prior to the Valero Texas Open, all in events with a strength of field similar to this week.

He's also among the few in the field this week with history at TPC Potomac. Dunson tied for 41st in 2018, even though he struggled on the greens. He's fifth on Tour this season in driving accuracy (a major improvement from his game in 2018), T-7 in par 3 scoring, and an adequate 58th in bogey avoidance.

He's a longshot across the board. But we're getting our best price at DraftKings, with PointsBet offering a more modest +12500.

Where to Bet on the PGA Tour

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Wells Fargo Championship picks made on 5/2/2022 at 3 p.m. ET.