Wimbledon Long Shots & Sleeper Picks 2025: Best Dark-Horse Predictions for All England Club
With Wimbledon 2025 starting on Monday, we're looking deep down the oddsboard for the best Wimbledon long shots and sleeper picks to win this year's major at the All England Club.
While it's been 11 years since a true underdog won on the men's side (Stan Wawrinka), sleepers have made a habit of winning on the women's side, where the last three champions - Barbora Krejcikova, Marketa Vondrousova, and Elena Rybakina - won the most prestigious major with an implied probability of under 1% entering the tournament.
Those three are gleaming examples of why you shouldn't smash the snooze button on the best sleeper picks, which we've outlined using Wimbledon odds from our best sports betting sites.
💤 2025 Wimbledon sleepers & dark-horse bets
Here are my favorite sleeper picks to win Wimbledon at the All England Club. The star rating indicates my confidence level, with one being the least confident and five being the most confident.
You can compare the best long-shot picks below to our Wimbledon AI predictions.
🎯 Best men's long shots
✅ Taylor Fritz (+3800 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Alexander Zverev (+3000 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Daniil Medvedev (+3900 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Holger Rune (+12000 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
✅ Ben Shelton (+7000 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
✅ Joao Fonseca (+13000 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
🎾 Taylor Fritz ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: +3800 via FanDuel ($10 to win $380)
🔢 Implied probability: 2.56%
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Taylor Fritz has designs on winning Wimbledon. You can see it by his preparation and ability to glide seamlessly on natural turf. He hasn't won a major yet but came close at last year's US Open, losing in the final to world No. 1 Jannik Sinner.
The 27-year-old advanced to the quarterfinals in two of the past three tournaments at the All England Club, losing last year in a five-set thriller to Lorenzo Musetti. He recently made it to the final of the Boss Open, losing to Alexander Zverev, another appealing long-shot pick.
🎾 Alexander Zverev ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: +3000 via FanDuel ($10 to win $300)
🔢 Implied probability: 3.23%
Zverev continually flirts with the tag of best player to never win a major. The world No. 3 has played the role of bridesmaid three times, advancing to the final in two of the last five majors. However, he's never made it past the fourth round at Wimbledon, an unavoidable deterrent.
While Zverev hasn't been at his best in London, he's entering the tournament in excellent form, having won the Boss Open and lost in the semifinals to Daniil Medvedev at the Halle Open.
🎾 Daniil Medvedev ⭐⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: +3900 via FanDuel ($10 to win $390)
🔢 Implied probability: 2.50%
Medvedev has not been at his best in 2025, and I wouldn't have included him as a viable long shot had he continued his subpar form in the Wimbledon warm-up tournaments.
However, the enigmatic Russian gained some momentum and confidence at the Halle Open, losing to Alexander Bublik in the final. That bodes well for the 29-year-old, who has enjoyed some success at Wimbledon, making it to the semifinals twice in a row entering this tournament.
🎾 Holger Rune ⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: +7000 via FanDuel ($10 to win $700)
🔢 Implied probability: 1.41%
Holger Rune represents our best flier pick. The 22-year-old Dane is comfortable on grass, making it to the quarterfinals and fourth round in the last two attempts at the All England Club. He's also made it to the fourth round in four of the last five majors.
🎯 Best women's long shots
✅ Madison Keys (+1800 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Jasmine Paolini (+3000 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Jessica Pegula (+3500 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Ons Jabeur (+5000 via bet365) ⭐⭐
✅ Elina Svitolina (+4000 via bet365) ⭐⭐
🎾 Madison Keys ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: +1800 via FanDuel ($10 to win $180)
🔢 Implied probability: 5.26%
Madison Keys got the longest-lingering monkey off her back when she won the Australian Open earlier this year, her first triumph at a major. It was a transcendent moment for Keys and anyone in her camp. The 30-year-old has been teetering on the brink of a Wimbledon breakthrough, advancing to the fourth round twice and the quarterfinals in her last three visits.
More recently, she advanced to the semifinals of the Queen's Club Championships before falling to Tatjana Maria in straight sets. Keys can beat anyone if she gets on a roll, as we witnessed firsthand Down Under.
🎾 Jasmine Paolini ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: +3000 via DraftKings ($10 to win $300)
🔢 Implied probability: 3.23%
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Last year, Jasmine Paolini showed what she's capable of at Wimbledon, losing in a thrilling three-set final to Krejcikova. While it was the most impressive result at a major for the diminutive Italian, she has been a consistent threat since the start of the 2024 season.
She advanced to at least the fourth round in five of her previous six grand slams, finishing as the runner-up twice. And she's enjoyed an excellent lead-up to the tournament, facing Iga Swiatek in the Bad Homburg Open semifinal.
🎾 Jessica Pegula ⭐⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: +3500 via Caesars ($10 to win $350)
🔢 Implied probability: 2.78%
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Jessica Pegula is on the prowl for her first grand slam triumph. She came close at last year's US Open, finishing second after losing in straight sets to world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka.
Ousted in the second round, she struggled at last year's Wimbledon. However, she advanced to the quarterfinals the previous year and is in the semifinals of the Bad Homburg Open.
🎾 Ons Jabeur ⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: +5000 via bet365 ($10 to win $500)
🔢 Implied probability: 1.96%
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A Wimbledon fan favorite, Ons Jabeur is a year removed from back-to-back appearances in the final, where she lost to Elena Rybakina and Marketa Vondrousova. The Tunisian has struggled for form and fitness recently and was ousted in the third round of last year's tournament.
She's worth a small flier, but nothing more.
💡 More Wimbledon predictions
- Wimbledon odds & favorites
- Wimbledon AI predictions
- Wimbledon best bets & predictions
- Wimbledon long shots & sleeper picks
📊 Wimbledon men's odds 2025
Men's and women's Wimbledon odds via FanDuel, one of our best sports betting apps.
| Player | Odds (FanDuel) | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | +130 | 43.48% | $13 |
| Jannik Sinner | +175 | 36.36% | $17.50 |
| Novak Djokovic | +650 | 13.33% | $65 |
| Jack Draper | +1200 | 7.69% | $120 |
| Alexander Zverev | +2400 | 4% | $240 |
| Alexander Bublik | +3100 | 3.13% | $310 |
| Taylor Fritz | +3800 | 2.56% | $380 |
| Daniil Medvedev | +3900 | 2.5% | $390 |
| Tommy Paul | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
| Jakub Mensik | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
📊 Women's Wimbledon odds 2025
| Player | Odds (FanDuel) | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | +260 | 27.78% | $26 |
| Elena Rybakina | +550 | 15.38% | $55 |
| Coco Gauff | +650 | 13.33% | $65 |
| Iga Swiatek | +1200 | 7.69% | $120 |
| Mirra Andreeva | +1200 | 7.69% | $120 |
| Marketa Vondrousova | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Madison Keys | +1700 | 5.56% | $170 |
| Qinwen Zheng | +2600 | 3.70% | $260 |
| Jasmine Paolini | +2900 | 3.33% | $290 |
| Amanda Anisimova | +3200 | 3.03% | $320 |
💰 Wimbledon betting history (men)
| Year | Name | Odds (Before Round 1) |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Carlos Alcaraz | +240 |
| 2023 | Carlos Alcaraz | +350 |
| 2022 | Novak Djokovic | -120 |
| 2021 | Novak Djokovic | -235 |
| 2020 | Cancelled | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Novak Djokovic | +100 |
| 2018 | Novak Djokovic | +600 |
| 2017 | Roger Federer | +225 |
| 2016 | Andy Murray | +330 |
| 2015 | Novak Djokovic | +110 |
💰 Wimbledon betting history (women)
💵 Best tennis betting sites
Ready to bet on Wimbledon 2025? Check out the best sportsbook promos for this season's summer major:
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
- Hard Rock Bet Promo Code | Read our Hard Rock Bet Review
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