Aces vs. Mystics Prediction, Odds & WNBA Best Bets Tonight: July 10
A'ja Wilson is out for tonight’s matchup at CareFirst Arena in Washington, D.C., but our Aces vs. Mystics prediction could gain even more value if the Las Vegas star is sidelined.
With the Aces slipping in the WNBA championship odds and the Mystics showing signs of life defensively, Washington could have the edge when the teams tip off at 7:30 p.m. ET (Prime Video).
🔮 Aces vs. Mystics prediction: WNBA expert picks
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✅ Moneyline pick: Mystics (-140 via bet365) ⭐
✅ Against the spread pick: Aces +3.5 (-125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Under 158.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🆚 Who will win Aces vs. Mystics?
✅ Moneyline pick: Mystics will win (-140 via bet365)
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The Mystics are a tough out at home, with a 6-3 record when playing in the capital. And despite carrying a losing record on the season (9-10), they've been overachieving all year behind the play of rookies Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen. Thanks to those two, along with Brittney Sykes and Shakira Austin, the Mystics boast the best average point differential of any team with a losing record (minus-1.5).
Meanwhile, Las Vegas continues to struggle after dropping six of its last 10 games, and now Wilson is out dealing with a wrist injury. I have Washington taking this 78-76 as part of our Aces vs. Mystics prediction.
💰 Aces vs. Mystics best bet & WNBA predictions
📉 Under 158.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: -110 via Caesars ($10 pays $9.09)
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The Aces' offense has fallen off a cliff this season. After leading the league in points per game last year (86.4), Las Vegas has slipped to ninth this campaign (79.6) with the league's fifth-worst offensive rating (102.6). Even with Wilson still playing at an All-Star level, Becky Hammon's team has logged the third-worst field-goal percentage in the W (40.8%) and ranks last in assists per game (16.9).
This offense could be in real trouble against a Washington defense that's improved and allows the fifth-lowest field-goal percentage (42.3%) and third-lowest 3-point percentage (30.5%) leaguewide. With Shakira Austin holding it down in the paint while boasting the sixth-best defensive rating in the W (97.3), and Citron on the perimeter, who's tied for first on the team in defensive win shares (0.8), Vegas is poised to struggle.
Luckily for Las Vegas, the Mystics' offense isn't much of a threat. It's posting the third-worst rating (101), ranks third last in points per game (79.1), and hits the fewest 3-pointers per outing in the league (5.5). The Under is hard to pass on given how much both offenses are slumping, especially with Caesars offering the game total at 158.5, a full point higher than our other best sportsbooks.
👀 Best player prop for Aces vs. Mystics
♠️ Jewell Loyd Under 12.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: -105 via Caesars ($10 pays $9.52)
The addition of Jewell Loyd in Vegas hasn't been going well. The former All-Star hasn't been herself since coming over from the Seattle Storm, averaging a career-low 10.4 points per game and shooting a career-worst 36.6% from 2-point range.
Loyd has gone Under 12.5 points in five straight games, averaging just 7.2 points per game over that stretch. She's finished with Under 12.5 points both times in two games against the Mystics this season, which is why the -105 odds via Caesars jump out with our other best sports betting sites offering odds between -110 and -115.
If you want more of a buffer with Loyd's Under, DraftKings is setting her at 13.5 points with -135 odds, which pays a $7.41 profit on a $10 winning bet.
🏀 Aces vs. Mystics odds today
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❓ WNBA betting FAQs
How do WNBA betting odds work?
WNBA betting odds show the potential payout and implied probability of a bet. Favorites have minus odds (e.g., -120), while underdogs have plus odds (e.g., +150).
What does betting against the spread mean?
Betting against the spread in the WNBA means picking a team to win by a certain number of points (the spread) or to lose by fewer than that number.
What is moneyline betting?
Moneyline betting is picking which WNBA team will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. Odds show how much you win based on your bet.
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