Lynx vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds & WNBA Best Bets: July 9

Do the Mercury stand a chance down two of their stars against the fierce Lynx?

Rob Paul

Last Updated: July 9, 2025 11:06 AM EDT • 4 minute read

Lynx vs. Mercury Predictions — Pictured: Minnesota Lynx guard Kayla McBride celebrates with Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier after making a shot against the Phoenix Mercury. Our Lynx vs. Mercury prediction expects both to shine again against Phoenix. Photo by Jesse Johnson via Imagn Images.

The two best teams in the West meet today as the Phoenix Mercury host the Minnesota Lynx, and our Lynx vs. Mercury prediction is backing the WNBA championship odds favorites to cover as 6.5-point betting favorites.

The action gets started at 3:30 p.m. ET (WNBA League Pass) from PHX Arena in Phoenix. Let's dig into our best WNBA predictions today.

🔮 Lynx vs. Mercury prediction: WNBA expert picks

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✅ Moneyline pick: Lynx (-275 via BetMGM) ⭐
✅ Against the spread pick: Lynx -6.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Under 161 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

🆚 Who will win Lynx vs. Mercury?

✅ Moneyline pick: Lynx will win (-275 via BetMGM)

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Minnesota is the best team in the WNBA by a mile, so we'll be tailing them as part of our WNBA predictions today. Led by WNBA MVP odds favorite Napheesa Collier, the Lynx lead the league in average point differential (plus-11.1) and net rating (plus-14.5). They've lost just two games this season and have won three of their last four games by double digits. Phoenix is also down both Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper for today's matchup, putting far more pressure on Alyssa Thomas to carry the load. I have Collier and Co. winning 85-75 as part of our Lynx vs. Mercury predictions.

💰 Lynx vs. Mercury best bet & WNBA predictions

🐾 Lynx -6.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -110 via Caesars ($10 pays $9.09)

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The Lynx's defense should be the biggest difference in this heavyweight matchup. While the Mercury rank third in the W in points per game (84.8), they're down their two leading scorers in Sabally (19.1) and Copper (16.7). Sabally leads the league in usage rate (32.4%) and sits 10th in PER (21.6). Taking her out of the equation against a monstrous Minnesota team is game-changing.

While Thomas is making a case to be in the MVP running, if this Lynx defense can focus on stopping her, Phoenix just doesn't have the scoring depth to stay in this game. Cheryl Reeve's team allows the fewest points per game (74.1), ranks No. 1 in defensive rating (96.7), allows the second-lowest field-goal percentage (40.2%), and leads the league in blocks per game (5.3).

On the flip side of the matchup, Phoenix's defense isn't equipped to keep it in the game. The Mercury are just No. 7 in points allowed per game (79.9) and have to stop the league's leading scorer in Collier (24.3) and its No. 2 sharpshooter, Kayla McBride (2.6 threes per game). Those two have the Lynx No. 1 in offensive rating (111.2). Minnesota is just too loaded for a banged-up Mercury team to keep it close.

👀 Best WNBA player prop for Lynx vs. Mercury

🎯 Napheesa Collier Over 21.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -105 via DraftKings ($10 pays $9.52)

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There's almost no way Collier won't earn her first WNBA MVP this season. The four-time All-Star leads the league in points per game (24.3), PER (30.6), win shares (4.3) and ranks top 10 in both effective field-goal percentage (56.7%) and true shooting percentage (63.1%).

The fact she's become a legitimate 3-point threat (1.3 per game) on top of her hitting a career-high 52.8% from the floor and 95.4% from the free-throw line is just unfair. She's gone Over 21.5 points in 12 of 16 games this season, including seven of her last nine. I'd take the Over on her points with odds as short as -125, making these -105 odds at DraftKings a steal.

🏀 Lynx vs. Mercury odds today

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❓ WNBA betting FAQs

How do WNBA betting odds work?

WNBA betting odds show the potential payout and implied probability of a bet. Favorites have minus odds (e.g., -120), while underdogs have plus odds (e.g., +150).

What does betting against the spread mean?

Betting against the spread in the WNBA means picking a team to win by a certain number of points (the spread) or to lose by fewer than that number.

What is moneyline betting?

Moneyline betting is picking which WNBA team will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. Odds show how much you win based on your bet.

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Written by:
Rob Paul

Rob is a Publishing Editor at Sportsbook Review. He’s been with the team since early 2024, with this being his first full-time role in the sports betting industry. Before joining SportsbookReview.com, he contributed to various sports outlets, including FanSided and Pro Football Network. During that period, he spent five years working full-time as a local community journalist, after attending Durham College for journalism and Wilfrid Laurier University for history. He previously hosted an NFL draft and college football-focused podcast where he had the opportunity to interact with future NFL players such as Maxx Crosby and Quinn Meinerz. Rob has spent multiple years working as a freelance podcast producer for numerous sports-related podcasts while making guest appearances on several college football shows. He’s also made guest appearances on SportsTalk Mississippi on several occasions to talk all things NFL draft. Rob values the way sports betting acts as a catalyst for telling stories and growing interest in certain sports, particularly FCS football, WNBA, and mid-major college basketball. He’s always been drawn to the more obscure teams and conferences in major college sports, but most of all, Rob loves using stats to find the best player props to back.