Mercury vs. Wings Prediction, Odds & WNBA Best Bet: Thursday, July 3

Paige Bueckers has been on a heater; can she lift the home underdogs ahead of a potential barn-burner?

Last Updated: July 3, 2025 2:15 PM EDT • 4 minute read

Mercury vs. Wings Prediction, Odds & WNBA Best Bet: Thursday, July 3 — Pictured: Dallas Wings guard Paige Bueckers (5) against the Phoenix Mercury. Photo by Mark J. Rebilas / Imagn Images.

Fresh off winning WNBA Rookie of the Month, Paige Bueckers leads the Dallas Wings (5-13) against the Phoenix Mercury (12-5) as we offer our best Mercury vs. Wings prediction, odds, and best bet for tonight's matchup at College Park Center in Arlington, Texas.

The Mercury are 12.5-point betting favorites to win this matchup, which tips off at 8 p.m. ET, though we're targeting the total for our best bet in what should be a high-scoring affair. Read on for our best value bet on Bueckers, too. ⤵️

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✅ Moneyline pick: Mercury to win (-625 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
✅ Against the spread pick: Wings +12.5 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Over 166.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🆚 Who will win Mercury vs. Wings?

✅ Prediction: Mercury to beat Wings ⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: -625 via BetMGM ($10 to win $1.60)

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While the Wings have been one of the most exciting young teams in the WNBA this season, they still aren't on the same level as the Mercury, who boast the league's fifth-best net rating (+5.4) after winning six of their last seven games.

💰 Mercury vs. Wings prediction & WNBA best bet

✅ Prediction: Over 166.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: -110 via Caesars ($10 to win $9.09)

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If you haven't been watching the Wings this season, you're missing out on one of the best shows in the W. Even as a rookie, Bueckers has been on a heater since returning from injury, averaging 21.6 points and 5.0 assists on 47.5% shooting over her last seven starts.

That includes a 35-point outburst in these teams' last meeting on June 11, when the Mercury erupted for 93 points in a 13-point win over Dallas. With Alyssa Thomas (9.3 APG) setting the table for Satou Sabally (19.1 PPG) and Kahleah Copper (10.1 PPG), Phoenix has posted top-five efficiency while featuring the second-fastest pace in the WNBA.

The Mercury's defense has been top-tier, too, but I still expect this one to resemble a track meet much like their prior meeting last month. I'd project this game to settle in the 170s and would bet the total accordingly.

👀 Best Mercury vs. Wings player prop bet

✅ Prediction: Paige Bueckers to score 20+ points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: +100 via FanDuel ($10 to win $10)

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As mentioned above, Bueckers has hit the ground running in her first WNBA season. Even after a slow start, she still ranks just outside the top 10 in scoring (18.4 PPG) and the top five in assists (5.8 APG) - and she's playing 35.6 minutes per contest, which is tied for fourth-most in the league.

That heavy volume approach has helped her clear the 20-point mark in five of her last seven games dating back that 35-point explosion against Phoenix a few weeks back. She's tallied 15 or more shot attempts in each of her last seven games, and her efficiency inside the arc gives me confidence that she'll cash this scoring prop once again.

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Written by:
C Jackson Cowart

C Jackson Cowart is a publishing editor and lead writer for Sportsbook Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, "C-Jax" has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels' championship run through the NCAA men's basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he's played a key role in Sportsbook Review's coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he's cashed some big bets over the years -- including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) -- he's still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed "process over results" bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He's written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn't forgiven his "inside source" for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.