Sparks vs. Aces Prediction & Expert Picks Tonight: WNBA Odds and Best Bets
Kelsey Plum and the Los Angeles Sparks return to familiar territory tonight as they take on the Las Vegas Aces at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Paradise, Nev., at 10 p.m. ET (CBSSN). Our Sparks vs. Aces prediction expects an offensive showcase, with standout performances from Plum and reigning MVP A’ja Wilson as both teams aim to boost their WNBA championship odds.
Read to the bottom to check out our favorite A'ja Wilson player prop bet from our best sports betting apps!
💰 Sparks vs. Aces expert picks for WNBA
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✅ Against the spread pick: Aces -10.5 (-115 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Moneyline pick: Aces (-650 via bet365) ⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Over 166.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🏀 Sparks vs. Aces prediction & best bet
🎯 Score prediction: Aces 94, Sparks 82
When these two teams played on May 30, it wasn't pretty for the Sparks. They gave up 57 first-half points and were never able to climb back into the game. Despite their defensive woes, and Plum shooting an abysmal 1-for-7 from behind the arc, L.A. still managed to top 80 points, and that should be all it needs to do again for this Over to hit.
The total was set at 167 in the first matchup between these two, and they easily surpassed it on their way to combining for 177. Expect much of the same in the rematch, with the Sparks' defense a major issue. L.A. is giving up the fourth-most points per game in the W (84.2) and has the fourth-worst defensive rating (106.7).
With Cameron Brink still out, the Sparks don't have enough defensive ability in their frontcourt to slow Wilson. She's second in the league in PER (31.1) and points per game (22), and can expose an L.A. defense that's allowing opponents to shoot 50.5% from inside the arc.
She's not alone either, with Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, and Jewell Loyd giving Vegas three reliable shooters around Wilson. However, the Aces ' guard-heavy lineup has hurt its defensive play; it's just ninth in defensive rating (104.1), ninth in 3-point percentage allowed (33.8%), and 12th in two-pointers allowed (23.7).
Even with the Sparks not winning many games, their offense has enough to take advantage of Vegas' defense. Plum, Azura Stevens, and Dearica Hamby are all top 20 in the league in offensive rating, and have the team putting up the fifth-most points per game (82.6).
Expect plenty of points between these two for the second straight game.
✅ Best bet: Over 166.5 (-110 via Caesars)
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👀 Star prop to watch: A'ja Wilson Over 24.5 points
The Sparks' defense simply cannot contain Wilson. The three-time MVP popped off for 35 points against Los Angeles on May 30 while shooting 66.7% from the floor. Her physicality inside is too much for a defense that's had trouble slowing opponents around the rim.
Wilson sits 10th in the W in offensive win shares (0.8) and second in points per game (22), and is poised to bounce back from her quieter performance against the Golden State Valkyries on Saturday.
✅ Best odds: -105 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $9.52 profit)
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📈 Sparks vs. Aces odds
Live updated odds from our best sports betting sites.
Odds analysis
The Aces opened as 11.5-point betting favorites and despite seeing 69% of the tickets on the home side covering, the line has moved to 10 or 10.5 points around the industry.
We've seen expected line movement from the total, opening at 166.5 points and sitting as high as 167.5 following 68% of the early tickets coming on the Over.
🧑🏫 WNBA expert picks
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