Wings vs. Mercury Best Bets, Odds & WNBA Predictions: July 7

With so many injuries impacting both teams tonight, can the Mercury bounce back from their last loss to the Wings?

Rob Paul

Last Updated: July 7, 2025 12:40 PM EDT • 4 minute read

Wings vs. Mercury Predictions, Odds & WNBA Best Bet — Pictured: Dallas Wings guard Paige Bueckers, who is the focus of our Wings vs. Mercury predictions, shoots past Phoenix Mercury guard Monique Akoa Makani. Photo by Kevin Jairaj via Imagn Images.

The Phoenix Mercury look to bolster their WNBA championship odds tonight when they host the Dallas Wings at 10 p.m. ET (WNBA League Pass) from PHX Arena in Phoenix. While both teams are missing major contributors, our Wings vs. Mercury predictions back Phoenix to get revenge for last week's loss to Dallas.

🔮 WNBA predictions: Wings vs. Mercury expert picks

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✅ Moneyline pick: Mercury (-235 via BetRivers) ⭐
✅ Against the spread pick: Mercury -6 (-109 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Over 164 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🆚 WNBA predictions: Who will win Wings vs. Mercury?

✅ Moneyline pick: Mercury will win (-235 via BetRivers)

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These two teams played on Thursday, with an 11-point Dallas win at home, but on Phoenix's court, I think Alyssa Thomas and Co. will get revenge. While the Mercury will be without Satou Sabally (ankle) and Kahleah Copper (hamstring), Dallas is also shorthanded without Arike Ogunbowale (thumb) and DiJonai Carrington (ribs). Last week, the Wings relied on rookies Aziaha James and JJ Quinerly to put up 43 points, and it seems like a huge stretch that they'll be capable of doing that again. So while Paige Bueckers should get her numbers, I have Phoenix winning 87 to 80 as part of our Wings vs. Mercury prediction.

💰 WNBA predictions: Wings vs. Mercury best bet

📈 Over 164 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -110 via Caesars ($10 pays $9.09)

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Sure, both teams are missing two of their top three players, but Dallas's lack of defense has helped it hit the Over in six of its last nine games. The Wings continue to be a massive liability on the defensive end, with Chris Koclanes' team sitting bottom four in defensive rating (108.6), points allowed per game (85.1), 3-point percentage allowed (36.5%), and made free throws allowed per game (18.9).

So while Thomas will be without Sabally and Copper, the Mercury should still be able to give Dallas problems. Phoenix ranks in the top five in points per game (83.9), offensive rating (106.6), made 3-pointers per game (10.3), and assists per game (20.7). Thomas (1.6, 117.2) and Monique Akoa-Makani (1.1, 118) are both top 20 in the W in offensive win shares and offensive rating.

They'll both need big showings again to win this time around against an offense-first Dallas squad. For as much as the Wings struggle to win, they do have a respectable offense thanks to Bueckers. Dallas is No. 6 in offensive rating (105.2) and has gone for 80-plus points in seven of its last nine games. With the Mercury's defense struggling lately, it's allowed 84-plus points in four straight, the Over is the safer play than the spread.

👀 Best WNBA player props for Wings vs. Mercury

🪽 Paige Bueckers Over 19.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -105 via Caesars ($10 pays $9.52)

If there's just one bet to place on this matchup for your Wings vs. Mercury predictions, it's the Over on Bueckers' points, and I'd even play this up to 21.5. She's had the Mercury's number all season, averaging 29 points against them in two outings while shooting 7-for-11 from three.

The No. 1 pick is already one of the most lethal offensive players in the W, sitting top 10 in points per game (18.7), offensive win shares (1.7), and PER (21.8). Bueckers has gone Over 19.5 points in six of eight games since returning from injury, and she's averaging 21.7 points per game over that stretch.

🏀 Wings vs. Mercury odds today

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❓ WNBA betting FAQs

How do WNBA betting odds work?

WNBA betting odds show the potential payout and implied probability of a bet. Favorites have minus odds (e.g., -120), while underdogs have plus odds (e.g., +150).

What does betting against the spread mean?

Betting against the spread in the WNBA means picking a team to win by a certain number of points (the spread) or to lose by fewer than that number.

What is moneyline betting?

Moneyline betting is picking which WNBA team will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. Odds show how much you win based on your bet.

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Written by:
Rob Paul

Rob is a Publishing Editor at Sportsbook Review. He’s been with the team since early 2024, with this being his first full-time role in the sports betting industry. Before joining SportsbookReview.com, he contributed to various sports outlets, including FanSided and Pro Football Network. During that period, he spent five years working full-time as a local community journalist, after attending Durham College for journalism and Wilfrid Laurier University for history. He previously hosted an NFL draft and college football-focused podcast where he had the opportunity to interact with future NFL players such as Maxx Crosby and Quinn Meinerz. Rob has spent multiple years working as a freelance podcast producer for numerous sports-related podcasts while making guest appearances on several college football shows. He’s also made guest appearances on SportsTalk Mississippi on several occasions to talk all things NFL draft. Rob values the way sports betting acts as a catalyst for telling stories and growing interest in certain sports, particularly FCS football, WNBA, and mid-major college basketball. He’s always been drawn to the more obscure teams and conferences in major college sports, but most of all, Rob loves using stats to find the best player props to back.