76ers vs. Nuggets Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Denver Earn Home Win in Marquee Matchup?
MVP hopefuls and conference powerhouses collide Monday in a marquee matchup when the Philadelphia 76ers and Denver Nuggets face off. Read on for our 76ers vs. Nuggets picks based on the best NBA odds.
Get the popcorn ready. We’ve got a marquee matchup between MVP favorites Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic, when the Philadelphia 76ers head into Ball Arena to face the Denver Nuggets.
Editor's note: This betting preview was submitted before it was announced that Philadelphia 76ers big man Joel Embiid would miss tonight's game against the Denver Nuggets.
Embiid is questionable with a calf injury, but he carried that designation Saturday against the Phoenix Suns and ended up taking the court. James Harden has missed the Sixers’ last three due to an achilles injury, but there’s optimism he could make his return for this one. The Nuggets list Michael Porter Jr. questionable with a heel injury, but Denver is otherwise at full strength.
With plenty of 76ers vs. Nuggets player prop picks to consider, here is our best 76ers vs. Nuggets pick (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
76ers vs. Nuggets pick
Nuggets -5 (-106 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
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These teams are evenly matched in many ways. Both have MVP candidates, both are among the top three seeds in their respective conferences, and both have deep rosters. The Nuggets rank seventh in points per game at home with 116.8, while the Sixers rank sixth in points per game on the road with 115.7.
The Sixers allow just 111.7 points per game on the road, which ranks third in the Association. The Nuggets allow 110 points per game at home, which ranks seventh. The Nuggets have clamped down over their last three, allowing just 104 points per game over that span.
While both squads are nearly even in terms of offense and defense, the home team can limit the Sixers. Denver’s interior defense is among the worst in the league, so Joel Embiid might get his, but Philly’s 3-point shooters will be limited. Denver ranks third in 3-point percentage allowed at a measly 34.5%, and Philly is top 10 in 3-pointers made per game. The Nuggets will live with a monster game from Embiid, if his teammates are limited.
The home team typically has the advantage, but Denver’s home-court advantage will show up when it matters most in the fourth quarter. The Nuggets rank 29th in fourth-quarter scoring on the road at 25.1 points, but the team is ninth at home with 27.9. The Nuggets led by three after three quarters the first time these teams met this season, but Philly won the fourth quarter, 30-20, to take a seven-point victory.
This will surely be a close one, but Denver can pull away late, which is why we’re picking them to cover this modest spread.
76ers vs. Nuggets best odds
FanDuel (-106)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
| Nuggets -5 | Nuggets -5 | Nuggets -5.5 | Nuggets -5 | Nuggets -5 |
| -110 | -106 | -105 | -110 | -110 |
BetMGM is the only book offering this one at Nuggets -5.5, so get the best number by placing this wager at FanDuel. If the Nuggets win by five tonight, we lose the wager at BetMGM, but we push with FanDuel.
76ers vs. Nuggets odds
Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA MVP odds.
76ers vs. Nuggets odds analysis
Denver opened as 5.5-point favorites, and that line hasn’t moved. We’ll see line movement when the status of Harden and Embiid is announced closer to tipoff. For now, bettors overwhelmingly favor Denver with 70% of wagers on the home team to cover.
The Nuggets are 23-13-1 ATS at home this season, though the team has only covered in one of its last four at Ball Arena. The 76ers have fared well on the road, going 20-17 ATS outside of Wells Fargo Center.
The point total for tonight’s matchup opened at 230.5, and it’s risen by as much as a point depending on the book. Much like the spread, we’re sure to see movement once we get clarity on availability, but 57% of wagers have been on the Over.
The Nuggets have hit the Under in five straight, and the 76ers have hit it in three of the last five. These teams hit the Over when they met earlier in the season, and the teams are 2-2-1 in five matchups over the last three seasons.
76ers vs. Nuggets game info
- Date: Monday, March 27, 9:30 p.m. ET
- TV: NBA TV
- Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
76ers-Nuggets pick made 03/27/2023 at 9:35 a.m. ET.
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