NBA Best Bets, Odds Today: Matchups, Picks, Predictions for Friday
After a quiet Thursday in the Association, we're back with an eight-game slate for Friday. Read on for our best bets and top NBA picks.
On Friday, we have an eight-game slate in the NBA featuring 16 teams with at least one day of rest. Still, some teams are without stars, making the prop scene even trickier than usual to handicap.
We have your back though—welcome back to the NBA best bets piece where we look to find the spots where your bankroll should be headed.
Here are our best bets for Friday’s NBA slate (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, PointsBet, Caesars Sportsbook, and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Friday’s NBA Schedule and Odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Denver Nuggets (+155) vs. Boston Celtics (-180)
- Phoenix Suns (-305) vs. Orlando Magic (+255)
- Detroit Pistons (+280) vs. New York Knicks (-340)
- Toronto Raptors (-195) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (+165)
- Milwaukee Bucks (+100) vs. San Antonio Spurs (-120)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (+150) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (-175)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (+120) vs. Golden State Warriors (-140)
- Sacramento Kings (-175) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (+150)
Friday’s NBA Best Bets
- Moneyline: Spurs (-120 via DraftKings)
- Spread: Thunder +5.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
- Total: Pistons-Knicks Over 224.5 (-107 via PointsBet)
- Upset: Timberwolves (+150 via FanDuel)
- Prop bet: Evan Mobley 15+ points (-110 via FanDuel)
Friday’s NBA Top Picks
Moneyline: Spurs (-120) ★★★
The Milwaukee Bucks continue to find ways to win despite Giannis Antetokounmpo being shelved multiple times this season and zero minutes from Khris Middleton. On Friday, they face a rebuilding San Antonio Spurs team and will once again be without Middleton and Antetokounmpo.
While the Bucks are 2-0 this season without that starring duo in the lineup, both games were against an Oklahoma City Thunder team that lacks experienced big men to combat Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez on the boards. That shouldn’t repeat itself against center Jakob Poeltl and the Spurs. Poeltl ranks 15th in the NBA in rebounds per game. He's also in the top 10 in offensive rebound rate and effective field goal percentage.
Additionally, in one of those wins against the Thunder, Milwaukee shot a blue-hot 47.2% from 3-point range; that’s not sustainable. The Bucks were 5-10 against the spread last season without Antetokounmpo. Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich ends his team's five-game losing skid Friday and hands the best team in the NBA a loss without its two best players.
Spread: Thunder +5.5 (-110) ★★★
Some simple line-reading here shows that the Thunder are the sharp play in this home contest against the playoff-aspiring Toronto Raptors. Oklahoma City just lost in the final seconds of a double-overtime home game against the Milwaukee Bucks and they’re out to steal coins from the public against another far-superior team. An alarming 72% of the public tickets have been on the Raptors. Yet, the line has frozen at this number.
That makes sense—since last season, the Thunder are 31-16-1 against the spread with an NBA-best 66.0% cover rate in that span when they have the same number of rest days as their opponent as they do Friday. The Raptors will be without their top three big men on Friday. With Pascal Siakam, Precious Achiuwa, and Khem Birch all ruled out, the Raptors won’t be able to take advantage of the Thunder’s weak paint defense. Toronto also ranks first in the NBA in transition points per game but the Thunder can match that energy since they have allowed the third-fewest transition points per possession this season.
The Raptors have already played seven games in the clutch, defined as a game within five points with under five minutes remaining. Let’s have them do it again.
Total: Pistons-Knicks Over 224.5 (-107) ★★
The New York Knicks might be the definition of mediocre. They are 0-5 against teams above .500 and 5-1 against teams below .500, like the Detroit Pistons. That should continue at home against a Pistons team that has assigned questionable tags to Alec Burks, Marvin Bagley, Hamidou Diallo, and Cade Cunningham. However, if they are ruled in, I wouldn’t feel confident about the Knicks in this spot.
Instead, pivot to poor defense regardless of the script. Both teams rank in the top 14 in the NBA this season in pace and this number has been cleared in three of the Knicks’ five wins to start the 2022-23 campaign. The Pistons don’t have the defensive clamps in the frontcourt to contain Knicks guard RJ Barrett and Jalen Brunson, and the Knicks don’t have the size to handle Pistons big Isaiah Stewart in the paint, Bojan Bogdanovic in the post, or Jaden Ivey at the perimeter.
Upset: Timberwolves (+150) ★★★
Injuries are already starting to play a factor in the NBA and are a reason we see a lot of steep moneyline favorites. However, if you’re going to go after an underdog, go with one that has a high ceiling when it's clicking on all cylinders and has something special to prove by pulling off the upset. The Memphis Grizzlies have absolutely owned the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Ja Morant era, going 6-2 against in the head-to-head series in the regular season and 4-2 in the playoffs in that span.
Minnesota made a desperation trade this offseason by handing the Utah Jazz all of its depth pieces for center Rudy Gobert. This trade made the Wolves shallower on offense and less versatile on defense and it should be no surprise that they are struggling at 5-7. That's why they opened as +180 moneyline underdogs.
Since then, 86% of the public moneyline bets and 50% of the spread bets have been placed on the Grizzlies. No injury news has developed recently other than the Timberwolves being without backup center Naz Reid. Yet, the line has moved in favor of Minnesota, now at +150.
I expect positive regression from perimeter players D’Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards after they have both started the season with horrendous shooting splits. Minnesota’s best player, Karl-Anthony Towns, has complained on his online streams in the past about blowing leads in winnable games to the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies are just 4-7-1 against the spread this season—expect more disappointment from them on Friday.
Prop bet: Mobley 15-plus points (-110) ★★★★
There aren’t too many games on this slate the books project to be close but this is one of them and we’ll bank on competitiveness in Golden State by taking this Over on Cleveland Cavaliers guard Evan Mobley's points prop. The 232-point total is the second-highest among Friday's games, suggesting that the books are expecting offense. That makes sense because the defending champion Warriors have not been clean defensively. They have also allowed the second-most points per game to power forwards this season.
Mobley has played 67% of his minutes at power forward and has gone over this line in seven of his 11 games this season. In his one previous meeting against the Warriors, last season, he scored only 11 points. That was against a more well-oiled Warriors defense where he got the volume but not the efficiency, going 5-for-12 from the field. Bet on Mobley to shoot at least 10 times again and if he does so, he’s a near-lock to get 15 points.
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NBA odds and best bets from 11/11/2022 at 1:15 p.m. ET.
