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NBA Odds & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Thursday

Ahaan Rungta

Last Updated: March 9, 2023 4:03 PM EST • 4 min 19 sec read.

Best bets today from around the NBA.
Best bets today from around the NBA.

Thursday features a smaller six-game NBA slate, so we've gotten creative with our bets. Read on for our NBA best bets based on the top NBA odds.

The six-game NBA slate features a rivalry game between the Golden State Warriors - with Stephen Curry back - and Memphis Grizzlies, who are missing a couple of important pieces.

Additionally, we have a matchup between two pleasant surprises, the New York Knicks and Sacramento Kings.

Here are our NBA best bets for Thursday (odds via BetMGM, DraftKings, and FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NBA picks and our best NBA betting sites.

Thursday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

  • Houston Rockets (+10) vs. Indiana Pacers
  • Utah Jazz (+3) vs. Orlando Magic
  • Charlotte Hornets (-4) vs. Detroit Pistons
  • Golden State Warriors (-2.5) vs. Memphis Grizzlies
  • Brooklyn Nets (+9.5) vs. Milwaukee Bucks
  • New York Knicks (+2) vs. Sacramento Kings

Thursday’s NBA best bets

  • Spread: Rockets +9.5 vs. Pacers (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
  • Total: Jazz-Magic Over 233.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
  • SGP: Grayson Allen 10-plus points & Bucks ML (-122 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Prop: Alperen Sengun Over 0.5 threes (+300 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA MVP odds.

NBA top picks

Spread: Rockets +9.5 (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Pacers ⭐⭐

Over 65% of the action is on the Indiana Pacers against the spread on Thursday, but we’ll gladly fade the public. The Pacers are only two games behind a play-in spot and will be with their dynamic pick-and-roll duo of Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner, as well as spot-up shooter Buddy Hield. However, the rest of their roster hasn’t been consistent enough to trust them with this big of a spread.

Indiana is 0-3 since December when favored by more than four points. It's won eight games this season by double digits, some of which came against teams that were massively shorthanded and had little notice to game plan with their available starters. The Houston Rockets are used to playing with their lineup on Thursday, which is missing just Kevin Porter Jr.

Houston is quietly 4-3 ATS since last month against teams that are not currently in a playoff/play-in spot. It shot just 26.9% from three in its last game and should see some positive regression against a Pacers defense that ranks dead-last in the NBA in defensive rating since the All-Star break.

On defense, the Rockets are certainly out of order. However, since the All-Star break, they have been a top-10 defense in the restricted area, which is where Indiana produces a majority of its offense. In that span, the Pacers rank second in the NBA in field-goal attempts per game in that zone. Expect Houston to keep this game unnecessarily close for the Pacers’ comfort.

Total: Jazz-Magic Over 233.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

There are very few games on Thursday’s slate in which both teams want to play at a similar pace. That is the case in this one since both the Utah Jazz and the Orlando Magic rank top seven in the NBA in PACE since the All-Star break.

For the Magic, Markelle Fultz will start but Wendell Carter Jr. is out. In these situations, Orlando is 10-7-1 to the Over this season. Meanwhile, Jordan Clarkson and Walker Kessler are both questionable but the team is sitting only one game behind a play-in spot, so the Jazz are likely going to give them the green light to play if possible.

Since they traded away Mike Conley, the Jazz are 5-5-1 to the Over. Both teams are also cold shooting the ball from deep: the Jazz are 31.3% from three over their last seven games and the Magic are 29.5% from three over their last six games.

Though both teams aren’t necessarily branded by the jump shot, it’s still smarter to bet on positive regression for these high-pace teams, so take the Over.

SGP: Grayson Allen 10-plus points + Bucks ML (-122 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Giannis Antetokounmpo is out for the Bucks on Thursday but Milwaukee should still get the job done against a Brooklyn Nets team that just does not have the defensive or offensive tools to compete as a 9.5-point underdog.

Brooklyn will be without starters Spencer Dinwiddie, Cameron Johnson, and Nicolas Claxton, as well as defensive specialists Royce O'Neale and Ben Simmons. The Nets' newest acquisition, Mikal Bridges, has been good but not good enough to guard every piece of the potent Bucks offense.

While Bridges and Dorian Finney-Smith are occupied guarding Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, and Bobby Portis, the Bucks should be able to run plays to get Grayson Allen open either to hit threes or drive to the rim with shot-blocker Claxton out of the picture. Allen has scored 10-plus points in six of his 10 games this season without Antetokounmpo (four of his five such games were at home) and the Bucks are 7-3 straight-up in those 10 games.

It makes sense to build this correlative same-game parlay, the best price for which we are currently getting on FanDuel. If you are unable to play it in this fashion, I would pivot to Allen over 11.5 points, but that play is a three-star confidence pick.

Prop: Alperen Sengun Over 0.5 threes (+300 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

The odds are longer on this one since Sengun just doesn’t prefer to shoot threes. That’s not his game and the volume is low. But he gets the perfect matchup to attempt an open three. The probability we get one should be more than the implied 25%, so I like these odds.

Over their last 15 games, the Pacers have allowed the 10th-most 3-pointers made per game to centers. Since the All-Star break alone, they have allowed starting centers Wendell Carter Jr., Zach Collins, Nikola Vucevic, and Joel Embiid to go 0-5, 2-4, 0-2, and 1-2, respectively, from three when Myles Turner starts, thanks to the drop coverage he’ll play to protect the rim.

Sengun has seen Turner's coverage twice in his career already, going 0-1 and 1-1 from three in those games. This season, he has made at least one three in eight of his 20 starts with Kevin Porter Jr. out and has attempted a three in two of his three games playing with Thursday’s expected starting lineup. Give us one wide-open attempt today and I’ll be happy at this price.

NBA best bets made 03/09/2023 at 2:30 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Ahaan Rungta
Ahaan is an analytics researcher who works in fantasy football and sports betting, focusing on MLB, NBA, and NFL. He's previously contributed fantasy baseball and football content for Fantrax and currently is a betting analyst for PlayerProfiler, where he has also been a director of analytics. When Ahaan is not capping sports props, he's often playing sports such as floor hockey and basketball and binge-watching The Voice.