🏀 NBA Player Props Tonight: Best Bets & Expert Prop Picks for Tuesday, March 17
📡 SBR Intel: NBA Player Props Tonight
I open my NBA player props tonight with James Harden Over 2.5 three-pointers made (-125). He's facing a Bucks team that allows the most 3-point attempts in the East. LaMelo Ball Over 3.5 three-pointers made (-125) is next, and he's in a similar situation (Miami allows the second-most). Paolo Banchero Over 8.5 rebounds (-115) is my final play, as the Thunder rank second-last in the NBA in offensive rebounding.
π Best NBA player props tonight: March 17
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.
| π° Pick | π‘ Best odds | βοΈ Bet size | π§ Why I'm making this bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden Over 2.5 three-pointers made | -125 via BetMGM | 1.25u -> 1u | Bucks allow most 3-point attempts in East |
| LaMelo Ball Over 3.5 three-pointers made | -125 via BetMGM | 1.25u -> 1u | Heat allow 2nd-most 3-point attempts in East |
| Paolo Banchero Over 8.5 rebounds | -115 via BetMGM | 1.15u -> 1u | Thunder rank 29th in offensive rebounding % |
Total wagered: 3.65 units | Max profit: 3 units
π° Best NBA player prop bet tonight
The Cavaliers have the fifth-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals.
James Harden Over 2.5 three-pointers made (-125) at Bucks
I've cashed on Harden's 3-point prop multiple times since he was traded to Cleveland - here and here, for example - and I like his matchup tonight.
The Bucks allow the most 3-point attempts (39.9) in the East this season and are allowing an average of 40.3 attempts over the last three games, so it's not like this stat is trending downward.
Harden has made three or more 3-pointers in eight of his 11 games since the All-Star break. BetMGM lists Harden Over 2.5 three-pointers made at -125, but this bet is good up to -150 on the best sports betting sites.
- Tipoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Spread: Cavaliers -10.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
- How to watch Cavaliers vs. Bucks: NBC/Peacock
π₯ More NBA player prop picks
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
LaMelo Ball Over 3.5 three-pointers made (-125) vs. Heat
Ball has been one of my favorite players to bet on this month, and now he gets to face a Heat team allowing the second-most 3-point attempts (39.3) in the East.
The Heat will likely be without their best defender tonight - Bam Adebayo - which should make Ball even more aggressive on offense. And it's not like he needs the extra motivation; Ball has attempted 10 or more 3-pointers in six of seven games in March.
Ball Over 3.5 three-pointers made is -125 at BetMGM, but I would play this up to -150 on the best NBA betting sites.
- Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Spread: Hornets -4 (-110 via bet365)
- How to watch Heat vs. Hornets: FanDuel Sports Network Southeast, FanDuel Sports Network Sun
Paolo Banchero Over 8.5 rebounds (-115) vs. Thunder
I cashed Banchero Over 8.5 rebounds on Monday - part of a 3-0 sweep - and I like his number again tonight. The Thunder are ranked 29th in offensive rebounding percentage (21.8%), meaning Banchero will have plenty of opportunities to grab defensive boards.
He had nine rebounds in the first half against the Atlanta Hawks on Monday, and we should see a similar result from him tonight in an even more favorable matchup. BetMGM lists Banchero Over 8.5 rebounds (-115), but I would play this up to -135 on the best sports betting apps.
- Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Spread: Thunder -9.5 (-110 via Caesars)
- How to watch Thunder vs. Magic: FanDuel Sports Network Florida, FanDuel Sports Network Oklahoma
π΅ My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 61-57-3 | +2.89 units β | 2% β |
| Player props | 59-48-3 | +3.04 units β | 2.2% β |
| Spreads | 1-0 | +1.5 units β | 87% β |
| Parlays | 1-9 | -1.65 units β | -54.89% β |
ποΈ Most-bet NBA player props tonight
Here's my analysis of the most-bet NBA player props tonight (h/t BetMGM):
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Vassell | Spurs | Over 3.5 first-quarter points | +100 |
| Naz Reid | Timberwolves | Under 24.5 points + rebounds + assists | -155 |
| Brandon Miller | Hornets | Over 26.5 points + rebounds | -110 |
| Ausar Thompson | Pistons | Over 7.5 rebounds + assists | -165 |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Timberwolves | Under 24.5 points + rebounds + assists | -115 |
Since Devin Vassell is out tonight, Naz Reid Under 24.5 points + rebounds + assists (-155) was the most-bet player prop at BetMGM. I'm not sure why this bet was so popular - maybe it was given out by a popular tout?
Since then, Reid's P/R/A line has dropped to 22.5 (Over: -125 | Under: -105). I believe the value's gone now on this Under, and I would bet the Over at 22.5 if I had to play it, since Anthony Edwards is out with a knee injury.
π‘ How I'm betting NBA player props tonight
I feature more NBA picks worth tailing in my 76ers vs. Nuggets player props.
I'm allocating 3.65 units for these plays, which is roughly what I would usually risk on three player props. While I'm confident in the bets directionally, theyβre not priced far from where I would set them.
I took three Overs in this article - which is rare, as I usually bet more Unders - because I believe these lines were priced too conservatively given tonight's matchups. Harden and Ball are high-volume 3-point shooters, and both are facing defenses that allow a lot of looks from beyond the arc. Banchero, meanwhile, has been dominant on the boards.
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