🏀 NBA Player Props Tonight: Best Bets for Edgecombe, Harden & Top Picks (March 19)
📡 SBR Intel: NBA Player Props Tonight
My NBA player props tonight feature Luka Doncic Over 3.5 three-pointers made (-158). He faces a Miami squad allowing the fourth-most 3-point attempts in the NBA. VJ Edgecombe Under 21.5 (-113) is my next best bet, as he's not even in the top 300 in effective field-goal percentage lately. I wrap up with James Harden Over 20.5 points (-110), as Chicago allows the second-most points in the East.
π Best NBA player props tonight: March 19
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.
| π° Pick | π‘ Best odds | βοΈ Bet size | π§ Why I'm making this bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic Over 3.5 three-pointers made | -158 via FanDuel | 1.58u -> 1u | Heat allow 4th-most 3-point attempts in NBA |
| VJ Edgecombe Under 21.5 points | -113 via DraftKings | 1.13u -> 1u | Ranks 359th in EFG% (per 36 min.) in last 5 games |
| James Harden Over 20.5 points | -110 via DraftKings | 1.1u -> 1u | Bulls allow 2nd-most points per game in East |
Total wagered: 3.81 units | Max profit: 3 units
π° Best NBA player prop bet tonight
The Lakers have the eighth-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals.
Luka Doncic Over 3.5 three-pointers made (-158) at Heat
I cashed this same bet on LaMelo Ball when he played the Heat on Tuesday. Miami allows the fourth-most 3-point attempts (39.3) in the NBA and gave Ball - the Hornets' leader in 3-point attempts per game - 12 looks from deep last time out.
Doncic leads the Lakers with 10.7 three-point attempts per game and is dealing with hip soreness, making him more likely to launch from beyond the arc than to drive in the lane. FanDuel lists Doncic Over 3.5 three-pointers made at -158, but this bet is good up to Over 4.5 (+120) on the best sports betting sites.
- Tipoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Spread: Heat -6 (-106 via FanDuel)
- How to watch Lakers vs. Heat: FanDuel Sports Network Sun, Spectrum Sports Network
π₯ More NBA player prop picks
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
VJ Edgecombe Under 21.5 points (-113) at Kings
I've been monitoring Edgecombe's struggles for a while now. With so many injuries on the 76ers, defenses have been keying in on him, and he hasn't been able to step up. He's playing fewer minutes and taking fewer shots than Quentin Grimes, and he's recently been settling for 3-pointers, where he's made just 2 of 21.
Out of 431 eligible players, Edgecombe ranks 359th in effective field-goal percentage (per 36 minutes) over the last five games. Edgecombe Under 21.5 points is -113 at DraftKings, but I would play this up to -135 on the best NBA betting sites.
- Tipoff: 10 p.m. ET
- Spread: 76ers -2.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
- How to watch 76ers vs. Kings: NBC Sports California, NBC Sports Philadelphia
VJ Edgecombe prop trends
VJ Edgecombe is a huge underdog in the NBA Rookie of the Year odds.
| Bet | Best odds | Last 10 games | Career vs. Kings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 points | -145 via BetMGM | 4-6 β | 0-1 β |
| Over 5.5 rebounds | +121 via DraftKings | 4-6 β | 0-1 β |
| Over 4.5 assists | +110 via BetMGM | 2-8 β | 0-1 β |
| Over 2.5 three-pointers made | +158 via FanDuel | 2-8 β | 0-1 β |
Edgecombe has only played the Kings once in his career - and Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid, and Paul George all played in that matchup - so I wouldn't put any stock in his history against Sacramento. It is concerning, though, for Over bettors that he has struggled in a larger role recently.
James Harden Over 20.5 points (-110) at Bulls
I love this matchup for Harden. The Bulls allow the second-most points per game (120.3) in the East and just gave up 139 to the Raptors, who rank 16th in offensive efficiency. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, sit fifth in offensive efficiency, and Harden has been a big reason why.
He ranks 35th in offensive rating per 36 minutes (128.2) over the last five games and should be even more involved in the offense tonight with Donovan Mitchell nursing an eye contusion. DraftKings has Over 20.5 points (-110), but I would play this up to -130 on the best sports betting apps.
- Tipoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Spread: Cavaliers -11 (-110 via FanDuel)
- How to watch Cavaliers vs. Bulls: Chicago Sports Network, FanDuel Sports Network Ohio
π΅ My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 64-59-3 | +3.89 units β | 2.6% β |
| Player props | 62-50-3 | +4.04 units β | 2.8% β |
| Spreads | 1-0 | +1.5 units β | 87% β |
| Parlays | 1-9 | -1.65 units β | -54.89% β |
ποΈ Most-bet NBA player props tonight
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Kornet | Spurs | Under 12.5 points + rebounds + assists | -135 |
| Davion Mitchell | Heat | Under 8.5 rebounds + assists | -115 |
| Brook Lopez | Clippers | Over 14.5 points + rebounds | -115 |
| Devin Booker | Suns | Over 33.5 points + assists | -110 |
| Sion James | Hornets | Under 8.5 points + rebounds + assists | -175 |
Itβs interesting that Luke Kornet Under 12.5 P/R/A (-135) is the most-bet NBA player prop at BetMGM tonight.
Heβs not a star player, and heβs not a popular pick on Gambling Twitter. I like this bet, though, as Kornet has cashed the Under on his P/R/A in nine of 14 games since the All-Star break.
π‘ How I'm betting NBA player props tonight
I'm allocating 3.81 units for these plays, which is roughly what I would usually risk on three player props. While I'm confident in the bets directionally, theyβre not priced far from where I would set them.
I took two Overs and an Under in this article, which isn't out of the ordinary, though I do bet more Unders. I focused on these players' specific matchups tonight, with Doncic facing the Heat and Harden playing the Bulls, but also took into account recent performances, as I don't believe any matchup for Edgecombe would be advantageous for him right now.
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