Our Best NBA Player Prop Bets Tonight: Expert Picks & Predictions for March 4
Look away, Dallas Mavericks fans. Yes, there are plenty of superstars playing on Tuesday night, but we're focusing on Luka Doncic for one of our best NBA picks.
On the same day it was announced Kyrie Irving tore his ACL and will be out for the remainder of the season, Doncic and the Los Angeles Lakers go for their seventh win in a row.
Our best NBA player props today focus Doncic and another star who we we expect to serve as key facilitators tonight.
💰 Best NBA player prop bets & odds tonight: March 4
Here are my best NBA player prop bets and odds tonight with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our NBA player prop odds tool for the latest NBA odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.
- Goga Bitadze player prop pick: Over 4.5 points (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Karl-Anthony Towns player prop pick: Over 2.5 assists (+115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Devin Vassell player prop pick: Over 2.5 assists (+120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Luka Doncic player prop pick: Over 7.5 assists (+110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Best NBA player prop predictions & expert picks today
Here's a breakdown of my best NBA player prop predictions and expert picks today. Check out the rest of our NBA picks along with our guide on how to bet on the NBA.
🏀 Goga Bitadze (Magic) Over 4.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -105 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $9.52)
Bonus bets will expire in 7 days. One new customer offer only. Additional terms and conditions apply.
Bitadze lost his starting role in late February, as he's come off the bench for the last six games. He hasn't been the scorer he was during that stretch as a starter, as the Orlando Magic big man is averaging just 4.5 points per game in a reserve role compared to 9.1 as a starter.
However, this total is just way too low.
Goga's scoring projection may not jump out at you if you're looking down a list of today's players, but when you run it against a total of 4.5, you see the value we're getting on the Over.
Based on his projection of 6.7, Over 4.5 points should be trading closer to -200. That's why we're getting a whopping 31% +EV on this bet.
It won't be pretty following two games in which he managed just a single point in each, but back Goga to score at least five tonight.
📊 Goga Bitadze player prop odds vs. Raptors
🏀 Karl-Anthony Towns (Knicks) Over 2.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +115 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $11.50)
Towns isn't especially well-known for his ability to dish out assists. In fact, he's done most of his damage this season as a scorer for the New York Knicks, averaging his most points since the 2021-22 season.
However, he is still managing 3.1 assists per game, and he's projected for right around the mark tonight despite a slow month of February in that regard.
Towns is listed as questionable for tonight's game with the cited reason being "personal," so it's possible he doesn't play. If he does, though, we're getting great value on this Over, as the break-even price is -148.
📊 Karl-Anthony Towns player prop odds vs. Warriors
🏀 Devin Vassell (Spurs) Over 2.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +120 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $12)
*Deposit required. Mobile app only. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Vassell has been racking up assists as an increased clip since Victor Wembanyama went down for the season. He's managed to dish out at least three dimes in four straight games entering tonight's showdown with the Brooklyn Nets.
Our best sports betting sites haven't adjusted yet, but the leading projection models have.
Vassell is projected to record 3.1 assists on Tuesday, so we're getting a great price with these +120 odds. This Over should be trading closer to -130, which is why Caesars is already offering it at -109. I imagine other sportsbooks will reach that point soo, too.
📊 Devin Vassell player prop odds vs. Nets
🏀 Luka Doncic (Lakers) Over 7.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +110 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $11)
Doncic may have started his Lakers tenure a bit slowly, but he's heating up now. The superstar dropped 29 points in the most recent win over the Los Angeles Clippers, adding nine assists to go along with that scoring explosion.
The latter is the most important thing for us, as Doncic has somewhat disappointed as a facilitator to this point with Los Angeles.
However, he's expected to continue to set up his teammates tonight against the lowly Pelicans. Doncic is projected for 8.4 dimes, making this a very strong +EV bet.
There's a reason all of our other best sports betting apps except for DraftKings offer this Over at minus money, and that price is also slightly worse than these very good +110 odds.
📊 Luka Doncic player prop odds vs. Pelicans
🏀 Best NBA betting sites
Looking to bet on NBA player props tonight? Here are our best NBA betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best sportsbook promos available for tonight's NBA games.
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
Related Articles
