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Bucks vs. Pelicans Player Prop Predictions, Odds: Top Picks for Lillard, Murphy, and Jones

Philip Wood

Last Updated: March 28, 2024 6:53 PM EDT • 2 min 50 sec read.

The New Orleans Pelicans play host to the Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday as we pick the best Bucks vs. Pelicans NBA player props based on the best NBA odds.

In their only previous meeting of the season, the Milwaukee Bucks (46-26) beat up on the New Orleans Pelicans (44-28) in a 34-point blowout on Jan. 27. The Pelicans will try to flip the script on Thursday, with tipoff scheduled for 8 p.m. ET on NBA TV from Smoothie King Center in New Orleans.

Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 30 in that game, while Damian Lillard and Brook Lopez added 26 and 24, respectively. Brandon Ingram led the Pelicans with 26 points, but he'll miss Thursday's game. The lines for numerous Pelicans players are set higher than usual because of his absence. Which of the totals offers value for bettors?

Here are our best Bucks vs. Pelicans player prop predictions and NBA picks (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Bucks vs. Pelicans game info & odds

  • When: Thursday, March, 28
  • Tip-off: 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
  • How to watch: NBA TV
  • Favorite: Bucks -1 (odds via DraftKings)

Bucks vs. Pelicans player props

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Bucks vs. Pelicans predictions

Trey Murphy III Under 20.5 points + assists (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Murphy didn’t play in the first meeting between these two teams, so it’s hard to know exactly what he'll do against the Bucks on Thursday. However, this number is set four higher than his season average in these two categories, and he hasn’t done anything special lately for us to expect an increase in production.

The forward has topped this number just once in his last five games, and he recorded zero assists while scoring 21 points in that contest. Perhaps our best sportsbooks are expecting him to pick up the slack with Ingram out. But this number is too high even in that scenario.

Bet365 is featuring the best price available for under 20.5. FanDuel is asking -102 for Under 19.5, and while that's tempting, we suggest taking the highest number at the best price available.

Damian Lillard Over 23.5 points (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Lillard has scored 27-plus points in four of his last five games. He notched 26 against the Pelicans during the last meeting. Additionally, he’s averaging 24.5 points per game. So why is this number set at just 23.5?

The Pelicans are very good defensively while allowing just 110.5 points per game. But they also gave up 141 points to the Bucks earlier in the campaign. And while Lillard is slightly worse on the road than at home, he’s still averaging 23.4 points per outing. And he dropped 32 on the Celtics during his last road game.

The price for this prop ranges from -105 to -115 at our best sports betting sites. That’s not much of a discrepancy, but make sure you shop around and get the best price available.

Herbert Jones Under 1.5 3-pointers made (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Jones has knocked down two 3-pointers in back-to-back games, but he’s still only averaging 1.4 made per contest in March. Jones was just 1-of-4 shooting from deep previously in 2023-24 against the Bucks. 

This game is being played in New Orleans, but Jones shoots worse at home than on the road. He’s hitting 45.9% from deep in road contests, but just 38.7% in home games. His average made threes drops from 1.6 on the road to 1.3 at home.

While the price makes it very tempting to take this Over, the Under is the right play. Everything points toward Jones making just one 3-pointer. It’d be nice to get this at longer than -120, but this is still worth a wager.

Bucks vs. Pelicans player props made 3/28/24 at 9:40 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.