NBA Championship Odds: Only These 3 Teams Can Win the NBA Finals, Which is the Best Bet?
The NBA postseason is finally here with 16 teams fighting for a chance to be crowned the basketball champions of the world, but which teams actually have a realistic shot at winning the title?
Looking at the NBA championship odds, only seven teams have a 2.78% implied probability of winning it all. However, recent history says just these three teams can win the NBA Finals. But which of them is the best bet?
🧩 What recent history says the NBA Finals winner needs
🏀 Top three seeds only: Since 1996, every single NBA champion has been seeded no worse than No. 3 in the NBA Playoffs - No. 1 seeds have won 17 titles, and No. 2 and No. 3 seeds have each won six titles
🏀 An All-NBA-level player or MVP candidate: Every champion since 1996 has featured at least one player who was either an All-NBA selection or an MVP
🏀 A top-10 defense: Since 1996, 26 of the last 29 championship teams have finished the regular season ranked in the top 10 in defensive rating
🏀 A top-five net rating: 20 of the last 29 NBA championships have finished top five in the regular season, ranked top five in net rating
🏀 Roster continuity: 22 of the last 29 NBA champions returned a core group of players from the previous season prior to winning the title
🏆 Only these three teams can win the NBA Finals
🌩️ Oklahoma City Thunder
The most obvious team that fits the bill this year as an NBA champion is the favorite to win it all. The Oklahoma City Thunder just won the sixth-most games in NBA regular season history (68), have the NBA MVP odds front-runner in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a defense that's No. 1 in rating (107.5), and sit first in the league in net rating (12.7).
To further hammer home how perfect a contender Mark Daigneault's team is this season, it boasts a roster that has plenty of experience together. SGA, Jalen Williams, Lu Dort, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Joe, and Cason Wallace have all played together for multiple seasons. Plus, Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso joined this team in the offseason to bolster its depth.
No team in the NBA has a better championship resume than the Thunder, which check every box of an NBA Finals contender. That's why a $10 winning bet on them pays just an $18.50 profit.
📊 Best Thunder championship odds: +185 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 35.09%
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🍀 Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics are looking to be the first back-to-back NBA champion since the Golden State Warriors did it in 2017 and 2018, and Joe Mazzulla's squad certainly has the ability to pull it off, even if it's not the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.
Roster continuity has been key to teams winning championships, and Boston's top 10 players this season in minutes per game were all on last season's NBA Finals-winning team. The Celtics also have a multi-time All-NBA star in Jayson Tatum and last year's NBA Finals MVP odds winner in Jaylen Brown.
Boston (9.4) sits behind just OKC in net rating this season, too, and ranks fifth in defensive rating (111.1). It's hard to argue against picking the Celtics to reach the NBA Finals again, even with the Cleveland Cavaliers being the No. 1 seed in the East.
📊 Best Celtics championship odds: +200 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 33.33%
⚔️ Cleveland Cavaliers
Although I ultimately think the NBA Finals will be Oklahoma City vs. Boston, Cleveland is the only other team in the league that checks every box of a future NBA Finals champion. Head coach Kenny Atkinson has the Cavs third in net rating (9.2), No. 8 in defensive rating (112.2), and it owns the top seed in the Eastern Conference.
The Cavs also have an All-NBA player in Donovan Mitchell, and a lineup with plenty of chemistry thanks to Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen all being mainstays in the Forest City. One thing to note, though, is the fact that this is Atkinson's first year as the team's bench boss.
That doesn't negate Cleveland's chance of winning it all. But just four NBA teams have won the championship since 1996 with a head coach in their first season leading the team - Golden State in 2015 (Steve Kerr), Cleveland in 2016 (Ty Lue), the Toronto Raptors in 2019 (Nick Nurse), and the Los Angeles Lakers in 2020 (Frank Vogel).
That's a major factor to consider when comparing the Cavs to both the Celtics and Thunder.
📊 Best Cavaliers championship odds: +700 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 12.50%
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🚫 Why these three teams can't win the NBA Finals
👑 Los Angeles Lakers
Right off the bat, there are a few flaws with the Lakers' championship resume. The team's best player, Luka Doncic, was acquired during the season and hasn't been through the postseason with this group before. Are Doncic and LeBron James talented enough to make up for this team's lack of continuity?
Even harder to overcome is the Lakers' inconsistent defensive play. The team is just 15th in defensive rating (114.7), which is a major factor in L.A. sitting just 14th in net rating (1.2). Additionally, the first-year head coach factor applies to this team as well, with JJ Redick entering his first NBA postseason.
The Lakers might be a hot pick because of Doncic and James, but these odds are far too short considering how few of the championship boxes this team checks.
📊 Best Lakers championship odds: +1500 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 6.25%
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🗽 New York Knicks
Like the Lakers, the Knicks look strong on paper as a top three seed in the playoffs. But just like L.A., continuity is a problem with this team. While Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges were great additions this past offseason, this is only their first year with Tom Thibodeau's team.
And even with both Jalen Brunson and KAT being All-NBA-level talents, New York's defense is far from good enough to win a championship. The Knicks are 14th in defensive rating (114.3), and that has them down at No. 8 in net rating (4.0).
These odds are far more palatable than the Lakers', but I'd still avoid the Knicks with playoff chemistry and lack of hard-nosed defense potentially being issues when they inevitably have to get through the Celtics and Cavaliers to reach the NBA Finals.
📊 Best Knicks championship odds: +3500 via Caesars | Implied probability: 2.78%
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🚀 Houston Rockets
It's as if our best sports betting sites know that the Rockets just don't have an NBA championship-caliber resume, despite being the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. However, Houston has at least reasonable odds, given the less-than-ideal circumstances surrounding their attempt to win a title.
The biggest problem with the Rockets is the lack of an All-NBA/MVP type talent. While Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, and Amen Thompson are all ascending players who could reach an All-NBA-level at some point, none of them are top 15 in the NBA in win shares. (OKC, Cleveland, and Boston all have at least one player in the top 15 in win shares.)
Further hurting their case is that they rank outside of the top five in net rating - Houston is No. 7 (4.6). With that said, between these odds, some real roster continuity, and a defense that's No. 4 in rating (110.8), Houston is the best value bet among teams with odds of +4000 or longer.
📊 Best Rockets championship odds: +8000 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 1.23%
💰 Best bet to win the NBA Finals: Oklahoma City Thunder
There's a reason Oklahoma City is the favorite to take home the title. This team is having an all-time year led by an MVP candidate and a roster full of versatile defenders that make this the most dangerous team in the NBA.
The Thunder led the league in net rating in the regular season by a substantial margin - OKC was first (12.7) by a mile with Boston second (9.4) - and Daigneault has the best defense in the NBA, accompanied by an offense that's No. 3 in rating (120.3).
It's nearly impossible to find a flaw with a team that has the league's top scorer in SGA (32.7 PPG), another 20-plus point scorer in Williams, a lockdown defender in Dort, and a lineup that can go 10-deep in the playoffs. Even with the Thunder's best odds being just +185, everything points to them being the squad to bet on to win the NBA Finals this postseason.
📊 NBA championship odds
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