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Clippers vs. Suns Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Deandre Ayton Continue Heater for Phoenix?

Ahaan Rungta

Last Updated: February 16, 2023 12:12 PM EST • 3 min 23 sec read.

The Los Angeles Clippers will field a new-look bench following an active deadline and visit the Phoenix Suns, who are still without their blockbuster acquisition in Kevin Durant, on TNT Thursday. Here are our best Clippers vs. Suns NBA picks based on the best NBA odds.

The Clippers are nearly fully healthy, listing only Norman Powell out for the contest. It is notable that Clippers head coach Ty Lue has recently alluded to the minutes of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard being subdued until this weekend's All Star break. Both George and Leonard have played between 30 and 35 minutes in each of the last three games.

The Phoenix Suns traded a large chunk of their core to land future Hall-of-Famer Kevin Durant, but he is not ready to make his team debut. In addition, Cameron Payne and Landry Shamet remain out on Thursday. But the return of Devin Booker, even on a reported minutes restriction, should make for a good contest on Thursday.

Here is our best Clippers vs. Suns NBA pick (odds via PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Clippers vs. Suns pick

Deandre Ayton Under 21.5 points (-120 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The former No. 1 overall pick has gone Over this line in five straight games, including a 24.7 point per game average since the trade of Cameron Johnson and Mikal Bridges. However, none of those matchups were nearly as tough as his Thursday draw against the Clippers.

The Clippers being nearly fully healthy is good news for their defense, and particularly great news for their ability to defend near the basket, which is where Ayton racks up points from. This season, 77.8% of Ayton’s field goal attempts have come from either the restricted area or the paint area.

Since the New Year, the Clippers have allowed the 11th-fewest field goals made per game in the restricted area and the 15th-fewest field goals made per game in the paint. Acquiring Mason Plumlee’s hard work near the rim should only help with those efforts, especially against Ayton, who isn’t known for creating his own shot.

Ayton has stayed Under this line in:

  • Eight of his 16 games this season with Chris Paul and Devin Booker both playing
  • Each of his last four games against the Clippers
  • All three of his games since 2021 when facing Plumlee

To add more context, a meaningful 28.3% of Ayton’s field goals made this season have been assisted by either Mikal Bridges (traded), Cameron Payne (ruled out), or Landry Shamet (ruled out). Bridges and Payne rank second and third, respectively, on the Suns this season in assists to the starting center.

With Powell already ruled out, and Leonard and George reportedly still being load-managed, the Clippers' perimeter defense should give up the easy buckets. That would seem to aid guards like Paul and Booker, not Ayton.

Clippers vs. Suns best odds

PointsBet (-120)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
Under 20.5 pointsN/AUnder 20.5 pointsUnder 20.5 pointsUnder 21.5 points
-105N/A-105-111-120

Across the board, we are currently seeing a line of 20.5 points for Ayton on Thursday. I’ll gladly pay the small juice for the extra point, which is available on PointsBet.

This play is worth four stars at 21.5, which usually earns a one-unit wager for me. If you are unable to grab this line and must play 20.5, I would be fine with that for slightly less confidence (0.75 units). If this number dips to 19.5 later in the day, this becomes a three-star play (0.50 units).

Clippers vs. Suns odds

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Clippers vs. Suns odds analysis

Both teams are fighting for seeding in the Western Conference, with the Suns currently carrying the No. 4 seed and the Clippers just behind at the No. 5 seed. The spread for Thursday’s primetime battle currently sits at around 1 point in favor of the Suns, with over 60% of the public ATS action coming in on Phoenix so far.

The Clippers are coming off a homestand where they lost two out of three. This season, they are average against the spread, standing at 30-30 ATS overall, 17-15 ATS on the road, and 12-16 ATS following a loss.

The Suns are on a two-game winning streak since the return of Booker, blowing out the troubled Indiana Pacers and the skidding Sacramento Kings. This season, they are 32-27 ATS overall, 15-16 ATS following a win, and 17-12 ATS at home.

The total for this game has seen some line movement, likely due to sharp action. More than 70% of the public action is backing the Over after opening at 223.5, but the line has either frozen or dipped to 222.5 on sportsbooks.

Clippers vs. Suns game info

  • Date: Thursday, Feb. 16, 10 p.m. ET
  • TV: TNT
  • Location: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ

Clippers-Suns pick made 02/16/2023 at 11 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Ahaan Rungta
Ahaan is an analytics researcher who works in fantasy football and sports betting, focusing on MLB, NBA, and NFL. He's previously contributed fantasy baseball and football content for Fantrax and currently is a betting analyst for PlayerProfiler, where he has also been a director of analytics. When Ahaan is not capping sports props, he's often playing sports such as floor hockey and basketball and binge-watching The Voice.