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Lakers vs. Warriors Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's Christmas Day Showdown

Shane Jackson

Last Updated: December 25, 2024 4:52 PM EST • 2 min 61 sec read.

Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James shoots against Detroit Pistons forward Ronald Holland as we offer our Lakers vs. Warriors prediction.
Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James shoots against Detroit Pistons forward Ronald Holland. Photo by Gary A. Vasquez via Imagn Images

It doesn't get much better than LeBron James vs. Steph Curry on Christmas Day. The two veteran megastars face each other for the fourth time on Christmas Day, with the former winning two of three thus far. 

The Golden State Warriors (15-13) welcome the Los Angeles Lakers (16-13) to Chase Center (8 p.m. ET, ESPN), with Golden State as the consensus 4.5-point favorites, according to the NBA Christmas Day odds.

The Warriors have a 7-6 home record but have won just one of the last six at Chase Center. Los Angeles, who we back in our Lakers vs. Warriors prediction, have won two in a row on the road but are 7-9 in enemy buildings. 

Lakers vs. Warriors updated betting information

The Warriors, who opened as 3.5-point favorites our best sportsbooks, are the 4.5-point favorites hours before tipoff. The Over/Under either set at 220 or 220.5. 

James is one of the most popular prop bets for the festive day's encounters, but we turn our attention to three others, including Curry in our  Lakers vs. Warriors NBA player prop picks. 

Lakers vs. Warriors prediction: NBA Christmas Day

Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best NBA betting sites and subject to change.

Lakers vs. Warriors: Who will win?

Lakers ⭐⭐⭐

The Warriors deserve to be favorites based on full-season metrics, but this game is closer to a toss-up if we look at recent form. That’s likely why the spread has moved from 4.5 to 3.5 at our best sports betting sites.

Golden State is 3-10 since Nov. 23, sliding down to the play-in tournament. Los Angeles is also in the play-in tournament but has won four of its past six games.

More importantly, the Lakers have increased their defensive effort. Since Dec. 8, they have been third in the league in defensive rating after being among the worst defensive teams for much of October and November.

This spread is still more than one point too high, so I don’t mind betting on the Lakers to cover the number. You could also parlay their moneyline price with the Boston Celtics to create a +200 Christmas Day parlay.

Either way, I think Los Angeles wins on Wednesday.

Best odds: +144 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 40.98%

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NBA Christmas Day expert picks

My best pick: LeBron James Over 0.5 blocks ⭐⭐⭐⭐

A big reason why the Lakers have played better defensively in recent weeks is because James has decided to try on that end of the floor. After using the NBA Cup schedule to take a week off, the 39-year-old has been re-energized on both ends of the floor.

James has blocked six shots over his past five games, averaging one block per game in December. I like getting a plus-money price on James to swat one shot on Christmas Day, especially bet365’s +110 value that provides a $11 payout for a $10 bet.

Best odds: +110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 47.62%

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Lakers vs. Warriors live odds & info

  • When: Wednesday, Dec. 25
  • Tip-off: 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: Chase Center (San Francisco)
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Favorite: Warriors -3.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
SbrChristmas Day Staking Challenge Lobby 1 K

Lakers vs. Warriors injuries

Here are our best NBA betting sites:

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Written By:
Shane Jackson
Shane Jackson has been writing for Sportsbook Review since 2022, though his passion for sports, writing, and betting runs much longer than that. He graduated from the University of Kansas with a journalism degree in 2017 and has been covering sports ever since, working for MLB.com, Manhattan Mercury, Lawrence Journal-World, WynnBET, Bet Chicago Sports, BetNOLA, and BetMGM. Jackson cares about creating quality sports betting content above all else. He uses a mixture of models, information, film, analysis, and a top-down approach to locate every best bet shared for SBR. He never gives out a pick that he wouldn’t be willing to spend his own money on. Jackson is focused on finding +EV bets on a daily basis for a variety of sports such as NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, and MLB. He usually bets on props but is willing to wager on a spread or total when there is an edge. Don’t ask him how many bets he has placed on a typical college football Saturday. Jackson doesn’t care if you follow him on social media, but his Twitter account has info on how you can follow his bets through multiple third-party platforms. He just wants you to read all the great work from the SBR team.