NBA Most Improved Player Futures Market: Value Outside of Morant

With the Memphis Grizzlies currently leading the Southwest Division, Ja Morant is considered the favorite to win the NBA's Most Improved Player Award. By examining the market, we determine where the value is.

Morant has had highlight-reel play after highlight-reel play this season. The Grizzlies currently occupy the third seed in the Western Conference.

Every time you check in on the NBA Most Improved Player market, you see Morant as the heavy favorite and move on to browse other futures. Have we conceded MIP to Morant too early?

Morant is the rightful favorite to win the award, and I am not buying the narrative that he has not improved since he is already a star. The award has traditionally been given to players who made the leap to superstardom, such as Morant.

https://twitter.com/NBA/status/1494155906254262272

I agree that he should be a favorite, but he shouldn't be a -350 favorite. This price point is excessively low for an award that has no true voting guidelines.

Morant is playing so well that he may have played himself out of the MIP conversation and into the MVP conversation. Would voters forget to vote for Morant for MIP if they start considering him seriously for the NBA MVP?

The -350 price point on Morant is no longer actionable, especially in a market where the definition of who should win is so vague. Even though he is a -350 favorite at sportsbooks, I do not believe that voters view him as such a heavy favorite.

As the NBA Most Improved futures market is heavily juiced towards Morant, I examine other candidates for value.

NBA Most Improved Player Odds

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SEE ALSO: NBA Awards Betting Trends

NBA Most Improved Player Contenders

Dejounte Murray, G, San Antonio Spurs

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Dejounte Murray, a six-year NBA veteran with the San Antonio Spurs, is putting together his most impressive season to date. Having been selected as an injury replacement, he will become an All-Star for the first time this weekend.

Although Murray's statistics are impressive and he has improved in every single statistical category, there is a concern with supporting him as a candidate for the MIP award. I would classify Murray as one of the players who took the leap from solid player to superstar. If the voters are compelled to choose a player under this umbrella, Murray will lose to Morant. In a head-to-head comparison of resumes, Murray will not be able to compete with Morant.

In spite of the fact that I believe +1800 is too long for Murray with what he has accomplished this season, I cannot see how he can overcome Morant for this award. Therefore, I believe it would not be wise to make a financial investment in Murray.

Despite my reluctance to say it, I have added Murray to my watchlist since he's a player that I would readily purchase if Morant becomes injured. I hope this doesn't happen, however, if it does, I believe Murray would leapfrog everyone else on the odds board and become the favorite.

https://twitter.com/statmuse/status/1494150960737775621

Recommendation: WatchlistBest Price: +1800 via Caesars

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Anfernee Simons, G, Portland Trail Blazers

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Anfernee Simons has attracted my attention in this market due to his new role with the Portland Trail Blazers and his current price of +3500.

Simons has emerged as the centerpiece of the Trail Blazers offense since Damian Lillard has been sidelined with an injury and CJ McCollum is in New Orleans. Simons has been averaging 28 points per game since McCollum's trade to the Pelicans. How significant is this increase in volume for Simons? He is averaging more field-goal attempts per game than Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid over the last five games.

If Simons continues to play the offensive role he has displayed in the last couple of games, his point per game average could exceed 20 by the end of the season. Increasing from 7.8 ppg to 20+ would be quite an achievement and would surely capture voters' attention.

Currently, Murray's resume of improvement is stronger than Simons', but Simons' improvement carries a different narrative than Murray's. As he is not making the transition from a solid player to a superstar, he cannot be compared to Morant. In the event that voters elect to reward a player who has made the leap from seven ppg to 20 ppg, Simons can earn votes. Murray does not have this advantage in this market.

The other appealing aspect of backing Simons is the price tag of +3500. If you purchase the +3500 right now, I believe you are going to be extremely happy within a month and will have something to work with in this market. In light of his expanded role with the Trail Blazers and excellent production, his odds will not get any longer. My personal opinion is that his odds will continue to get shorter over time and we should begin to see them continually decrease.

https://twitter.com/trailblazers/status/1494373534964928512

Recommendation: BuyBest Price: +3500 via Caesars

Darius Garland, G, Cleveland Cavaliers

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For the Cleveland Cavaliers, Darius Garland is having an impressive season. However, I am not sure if his statistics have risen enough to compete with some of the other players in this market. Even though he is an All-Star this season, he was also an excellent player last year.

Garland has improved steadily every year, unlike Simons, who has seen a sudden jump in performance needed to win this award. I also believe Garland should slot in behind Murray in the odds.

I am not interested in backing Garland for this award at a price of +1200. Given the odds currently available on Garland, I am looking elsewhere in this market. Garland has not shown a significant enough improvement in performance to warrant a purchase at +1200. I believe this is too low a price for him.

Recommendation: FadeBest Price: +1200 DraftKings

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NBA Most Improved Player Odds made 2/18/2022 at 11:54 a.m. ET