Top NBA Parlay Picks for Monday: 3 Best Bets for Loaded 9-Game Slate

Our NBA parlay picks for Monday's nine-game slate look at a variety of NBA markets and combine three of the best bets for +402 odds.

Aside from the Boston Celtics, each of Sunday's nine favorites won. They didn’t all cover – that would’ve been a tough task with three of them favored by double digits – but it reminds us of a key lesson: big spreads are almost always big fades. Double-digit favorites went 3-0 straight up but 0-3 against the spread.

With that in mind, we’re staying away from Monday’s two big favorites: the Atlanta Hawks and Golden State Warriors. Instead, we’ll target one team favored by a smaller margin alongside a player prop and a total. 

Here are our top NBA parlay picks for Monday (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Monday's NBA Parlay Picks

Toronto Raptors vs. Los Angeles Lakers Over 225 (-110) ????Miles Bridges Over 1.5 made threes (-156) ????Minnesota Timberwolves (-166) vs. San Antonio Spurs ????

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NBA Parlay Predictions

Raptors-Lakers Over 225 (-110)

LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers have stopped playing defense. It’s tough to watch, but it’s true – the Lakers gave up 48 first-quarter points to the Phoenix Suns on Sunday and rank sixth-worst in defensive efficiency over the last three games. They have allowed 122.0 points per 100 possessions through that span in games against the Houston Rockets, Washington Wizards, and Suns. Aside from Phoenix, those aren’t exactly offensive juggernauts.

The betting trends also reflect Los Angeles’ new attitude. The Lakers' last three games, and five of their last six, cashed the Over. The Over is 37-29-1 in their games to date, the NBA’s fourth-highest such record.

They’ll face the Toronto Raptors on Monday, and a few signs indicate that the Raptors should help push this one Over the projected line. First, they are fifth in offensive rating over their last three games, and they’ve earned that ranking by scoring 121.8 points per 100 possessions. Next, their last two games hit the Over, and the Over is 35-32 in their games to date.

The Lakers are also on a back-to-back, and the Over is 5-3 when they play without rest and 8-5 when they play with a rest disadvantage. Look for sloppy, half-hearted defensive play to push the total to the Over.

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Bridges Over 1.5 made threes (-156)

I’m targeting a recent trend with this pick. The Oklahoma City Thunder were playing decent perimeter defense earlier in the season, as they rank 14th on the year in opponent 3-point percentage. Their opponents have shot 34.9% from deep on the season.

However, things have gotten worse since they lost half their roster to injuries. Through their last three games, the Thunder have allowed their opponents to make 43.8% of their long-range shots, the second-highest rate in the Association.

We’ll target Charlotte Hornets forward Miles Bridges here because the Thunder have especially struggled against sharpshooting bigs. Over their last seven contests, opposing power forwards made 4.5 3-pointers per game, an NBA-high by a 1.3-make margin. Sunday, Memphis Grizzlies forward Jaren Jackson Jr., even hit a pair of triples against them after just one quarter.

Bridges is a higher-volume shooter than Jackson. He has made at least two triples in 36 of his 66 appearances this season, and he made three in his only game against the Thunder this year. With Bridges averaging 1.8 makes on 5.9 attempts this year, look for him to exceed this total early for the second leg of our NBA parlay picks.

Timberwolves (-166)

We’ll wrap up Monday’s parlay by targeting the hottest team in professional basketball. The Minnesota Timberwolves find themselves on an 8-2 run over their last 10 games and could fight their way past the Western Conference play-in tournament. They sit 1.5 games behind the sixth-seeded Denver Nuggets for the last guaranteed playoff spot.

The T-Wolves face the San Antonio Spurs on Monday, a team they beat by a 25-point margin on Nov. 18. Although it's technically still contending for a play-in bid, San Antonio really doesn’t have anything left to play for. Unlike other struggling Western Conference franchises, the Spurs front office sold at the trade deadline, and the players have to understand their situation. The Spurs are on a 4-6 slump with losses to the Indiana Pacers, Raptors, Hornets, Sacramento Kings, Grizzlies, and Miami Heat.

Properly identifying team goals is a crucial component of late-season NBA betting. The Timberwolves have every reason to win this game. The Spurs have every reason not to try. As much as they may not want to harm head coach Gregg Popovich’s overall winning percentage, the Spurs rank fourth-worst in offensive efficiency through the last three games. We’ll fade them against the surging Wolves.

It’s worth noting that the TImberwolves may not have several key pieces on Monday. Forward Jarred Vanderbilt is out, guard Patrick Beverley is questionable, and guard Anthony Edwards is probable. However, this is too winnable of a game for Minnesota to punt, so we’ll take the moneyline value the books are giving us and hope for the best to complete our NBA parlay picks.

Combined NBA Parlay Odds: Raptors-Lakers Over 225 (-110) + Bridges Over 1.5 threes (-156) + Timberwolves (-166) = +402

Where to Bet on NBA Parlay Picks

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NBA parlay picks made 3/14/2022 at 9:58 a.m. ET.