NBA Picks Today: Thursday’s Best Player Picks & Underdog Pick ‘Em Predictions for March 13
As the NBA advances toward the playoffs, clear contenders have emerged - as well as clear pretenders. Using that information, we can spot value all over the board, including Underdog NBA picks today, like Zion Williamson.
Williamson squares off against the Orlando Magic on an otherwise underwhelming NBA slate. The two nationally televised games, Lakers at Bucks and Kings at Warriors, feature several big names on the injury report. What better way to spice things up than a pick’em slip?
💰 Best NBA picks & Underdog Pick ‘Em predictions
🎯 Zion Williamson Lower than 28.5 points + assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Domantas Sabonis Lower than 21.5 points + assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Gabe Vincent Higher than 10.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Coby White Higher than 21.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Corey Kispert Higher than 11.5 points ⭐⭐⭐
🏆 Today’s best NBA player picks
🎯 Zion Williamson ⬇️ 28.5 points + assists
The Magic excel at two things: limiting assists and points in the paint. The Magic lead the NBA in assists allowed per game (23) and rank second in points in the paint allowed (45.6). Since the All-Star Break, they rank second (22.7) and third (46), respectively. As a result, we’re fading Zion Williamson.
Williamson just posted an incredible 22-point triple-double on Tuesday, so this projection skews a bit higher than it should. That’s why DraftKings Pick6 has this projection at 27.5. Williamson failed to clear even 22 points and assists against the Magic last spring, so lock in the lower for today’s slate.
🎯 Domantas Sabonis ⬇️ 21.5 points + assists
The Sacramento Kings have been without star forward Domantas Sabonis for the last five games, and he remains questionable for tonight’s contest vs. the Golden State Warriors. With Sacramento on the first leg of a back-to-back set, minutes could get weird, which makes projecting him for lower than 21.5 points and assists quite attractive.
Assuming Sabonis suits up, he’ll take on a Golden State defense that ranks sixth-best in assists allowed per game following the All-Star Break (24.2) and 11th in points allowed in the paint (47.8). Golden State also ranks fifth in defensive rating through that stretch at 109.8. Sabonis usually clears this number, but tonight’s situation doesn’t bode well for him.
🎯 Gabe Vincent ⬆️ 10.5 points
The Los Angeles Lakers are in a tricky spot tonight. They’ll play the Milwaukee Bucks tonight without LeBron James, Jaxson Hayes, and Rui Hachimura. With Luka Doncic questionable and another game scheduled for tomorrow - that one coming against their Western Conference rivals, the Denver Nuggets - usage could get creative here.
One player that the funky workload could help the most is Gabe Vincent. Vincent made a spot start without James on Monday and proceeded to score a whopping 24 points. He should get plenty of looks regardless of whether Doncic suits up, and that makes projecting him higher than 10.5 points an attractive choice.
🎯 Coby White ⬆️ 21.5 points
The Chicago Bulls will take on the Brooklyn Nets this evening, and with Zach LaVine in Sacramento, Ayo Dosunmu out, and both Josh Giddey and Lonzo Ball doubtful, it’s likely going to be Coby White and not much else in the backcourt; Tre Jones and wing Kevin Huerter are the next men up. White will have to carry some serious water as a scorer.
In his only game without Giddey and LaVine, White racked up 25 points in 39 minutes vs. Cleveland. He now gets a slower-paced Brooklyn team that struggles on the defensive end. PrizePicks and DraftKings Pick6 project him at 22.5, so we’re getting a better deal at Underdog than the other pick’em sites.
🎯 Corey Kispert ⬆️ 11.5 points
The Washington Wizards square off with the Detroit Pistons tonight in a battle pitting two fast-paced teams. Washington is 10th in pace since the All-Star Break while Detroit is first. The Pistons pair their fast pace with the third-best defensive rating, but the extra possessions should offset that fact for Corey Kispert.
Kispert is averaging 11.6 points per game this year and 12.1 since the trade deadline on Feb. 6. The Pistons just held him to 10 on splits of 33/17/100 on Tuesday, but he had to play that game without rest, and I expect some positive shooting regression out of him in this spot, largely thanks to the extra volume.
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