NBA Picks Today: Friday’s Best Player Picks & Underdog Pick ‘Em Predictions for March 14
It’s March, so while the rest of the world turns its eyes to college basketball, I turn to the NBA to find value.
Yesterday, we went 3-1-1 on NBA Underdog picks, and today, we can do even better. We had just five games to choose from yesterday, so today’s 10-game card looks like an upgrade. My favorite play on the Friday slate is targeting a lower than for one of the game's biggest stars.
💰 Best NBA picks & Underdog Pick ‘Em predictions
🎯 Jayson Tatum Lower than 28.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Jaren Jackson Jr. Lower than 25.5 points + rebounds ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Zach LaVine Higher than 24.5 points + assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 RJ Barrett Higher/Lower than 24.5 points + assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Myles Turner Higher than 15.5 points ⭐⭐⭐
🏆 Today’s best NBA player picks
🎯 Jayson Tatum ⬇️ 28.5 points
The Boston Celtics are in South Beach to face the Miami Heat tonight, and it’s also their first leg of a back-to-back set. They’ll trek north to play the Brooklyn Nets tomorrow, and while that game shouldn’t test them, it’s still something they’ll have to plan around. The Heat are also on the front end of a back-to-back, so the minutes in this game could get a bit weird.
With a need to manage players’ minutes and Miami’s defense locking down top scorers, we’re projecting Tatum for lower than 28.5 points. Since the 2023-24 season, Tatum is averaging only 25 points per regular season game against the Heat, going higher than 28.5 in only one of those contests as the Heat have held him to sub-33% from beyond the arc.
🎯 Jaren Jackson Jr. ⬇️ 25.5 points + rebounds
Like the Celtics, the Memphis Grizzlies are on the front leg of a back-to-back set. They’ll play the tricky Cleveland Cavaliers defense this evening before facing the Miami Heat tomorrow. The Grizz are a slight home dog to the Cavs in this spot, and we’re fading one of their key assets as a scorer and on the glass.
Jackson Jr. has lined up against Evan Mobley four times, and in each contest, he failed to record higher than 25.5 points and rebounds. He notched just 19 in their first meeting and posted 25 twice, once in 2022 and again this February. Foul trouble and potentially weird minutes are our friends for this Underdog pick today.
🎯 Zach LaVine ⬆️ 25.5 points + assists
The Sacramento Kings just got bodied by the Golden State Warriors last night, but LaVine only played 32 minutes, so he should be reasonably fresh for tonight’s matchup with the Phoenix Suns. We’re getting into desperate territory with the Kings’ play-in tournament hopes, as they’ve fallen to the No. 9 seed, just 3.5 games up on the No. 11 Suns.
Phoenix’s defense has been nonexistent since the All-Star Break. The Suns have allowed the third-most assists per game (30) and the second-most points (123), which unsurprisingly correspond to the 28th-ranked defensive rating (121.9).
Their struggles have been especially obvious in transition, as they are 29th in points allowed from turnovers and 28th against the fast break. Look for LaVine to capitalize with some open shots and easy passes.
🎯 RJ Barrett ⬆️ 24.5 points + assists
With the anchor of the Toronto Raptors offense, Scottie Barnes, listed as questionable, we could be getting a steal with this Barrett player projection. Barnes missed Toronto’s last game, and with him on the bench, and when Barnes sits, Barrett is averaging 22.8 points and 7.1 assists. Tonight’s matchup against the Utah Jazz is the perfect spot to back him.
Like the Suns, the Jazz struggle on the defensive end. Since the All-Star Break, they rank 23rd in defensive rating but 30th in both points allowed from turnovers (22.7) and fast break points (21.3). They’re also 30th in assists allowed per contest (30.9). Utah’s pace, which ranks second in the NBA, isn’t doing them any favors in those departments—but it might do Barrett a big one on Friday night.
🎯 Myles Turner ⬆️ 15.5 points
When the Philadelphia 76ers host the Indiana Pacers tonight, they’ll do so without either Joel Embiid or Tyrese Maxey. Backup big man Andre Drummond is also questionable. While I suspect Drummond will play, his availability won’t improve Philadelphia’s terrible defense against centers by a meaningful margin.
Over the last 15 games, the 76ers rank 29th in points allowed per game to centers at 25. They are 30th in 3-pointers allowed to the position (2.4). Over just the last seven, Philadelphia has allowed the most points to the position (27.7) on even more 3-pointers (3.8). Turner should cook on Friday evening.
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