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Suns vs. Warriors Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Golden State Get Back on Track at Home?

Zachary Hanshew

Last Updated: January 10, 2023 10:35 AM EST • 2 min 54 sec read.

Pacific Division rivals clash Tuesday as the Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors search for a win. Read on for our Suns-Warriors NBA picks based on the top odds.

The Phoenix Suns have been a mess since guard Devin Booker got injured, and the team is in even worse shape now that point guard Chris Paul has hit the injury report. Paul is out Tuesday, and the Suns are in desperate need for a victory after tumbling down the Western Conference standings.

After five straight wins at home, the Golden State Warriors have lost two in a row at Chase Center and will look to get back on track against the struggling Suns. Warruirs guard Steph Curry will return to the lineup on Tuesday after being sidelined since Dec. 14 due to injury.

Here is our best Suns vs. Warriors NBA pick (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NBA best bets, as well as our NBA Finals odds, and NBA MVP odds.

Suns vs. Warriors Game Info

  • Date: Tuesday, Jan. 10, 10 p.m. ET
  • TV: TNT
  • Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

Suns vs. Warriors Odds

Suns vs. Warriors Odds Analysis

The line on this one opened at Warriors -12, and that line has moved just half a point in favor of the visiting team. Phoenix is a perfect 7-0 against the spread when facing divisional opponents this season, and Phoenix is 5-4 as the road dog and 9-11 on the road overall.

Those are favorable trends, but the Suns have no more of that early-season equity they built up when the roster was healthy. Golden State has lost two straight at home, but the team is 14-6-1 ATS at Chase Center, 10-6-1 as the home favorite and 10-9 following a loss.

There’s been no movement on the 229.5 point total since opening. Phoenix is 6-3 as the road underdog, 7-6 as the underdog and 4-3 against the Pacific Division. The Suns have hit the Over in each of the last five games, and Phoenix is the only team to have not scored at least 100 points in a game in 2023. Golden State is 5-1-1 against divisional opponents, 8-13 at home and 8-9 as the home favorite, including 2-5 across the last seven. 

Suns vs. Warriors Pick

Warriors 1st Quarter -4.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

I considered selling a three-point basket and moving this line to -14.5, but then I realized there’s a better wager to be had. Golden State has come out of the gates hot early in games this season, and the team ranks first in the Association with 31.3 points per first quarter overall and 32.3 points per first quarter at home.

Phoenix, on the other hand, hasn’t been so great early in games. The team ranks 29th in points per first quarter at 27 and last in points per first quarter on the road at 26. Over the last three games, Phoenix has only scored 21 points per first quarter, which is tied for last in the NBA.

The Suns allow the 10th fewest first-quarter points to opponents at 27.8 per game this season, but in the team’s first contest without Booker and Paul, they surrendered 35. Curry’s return gives this wager a confidence boost, but regardless of his availability, we’re taking the Warriors to cover this first-quarter spread against a sputtering Suns team missing its top scorer and floor general.

Suns vs. Warriors Best Odds

BetMGM (+100)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
-4-3.5-4.5-4-4.5
-110-118+100-115-105

If we want to play it safe, we can take 3.5 points at FanDuel, but the odds are a bit shorter than those at -4 or -4.5, which make them unattractive given the small disparity. We’re better off taking the odds for the 4.5-point spread, and BetMGM is the only site that offers those odds at plus-money. Golden State should have no problem winning the first quarter by at least five points, so we’re not taking the safer -3.5 or -4 line at other books.

Suns-Warriors pick made 01/10/2023 at 12:15 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Zachary Hanshew
Zak Hanshew has been covering the NFL and NBA since 2018, writing about fantasy sports, daily fantasy sports, and sports betting. He joined Sportsbook Review for the 2022-23 NBA season and looks forward to his third NBA campaign. Zak has had bylines for over half a dozen publications, most notably Yahoo and NBA.com. As a sports writer, Zak has been recognized for his attention to detail and insight into NBA betting trends. Zak is an avid NBA bettor who loves a prop bet, particularly a favorable combo prop. Of particular interest in the betting space are long shots such as first-basket scorer, but nothing beats a triple-double prop. He loves to target plus-money props with educated and well-researched analysis to back up his picks. Zak holds a Bachelor’s and a Master’s degree from West Virginia University and roots avidly for his Mountaineers.