Thunder NBA Finals Betting Preview: Odds, Key Players & Expert Breakdown vs. Pacers

The Thunder are heavy favorites to win the NBA Finals, and we're breaking down their keys to winning it all.

Gabe Henderson

Last updated: June 5, 2025 11:59 AM EDT • 5 min read

Thunder NBA Finals Odds & Preview: Key Players, Team Stats & Expert Analysis — Pictured: Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren (7) and guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) celebrate against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Photo by Alonzo Adams via Imagn Images.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are back in the NBA Finals for the first time since 2012, despite being the NBA's youngest team. Our Oklahoma City Thunder team preview focuses on getting to know this young group before they take on the Indiana Pacers with the Larry O'Brien Trophy on the line.

We will analyze the team before the NBA Finals tip off tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. Read to the end for our best Thunder bet ahead of Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

📊 Thunder odds to win the NBA Finals

Our 2025 NBA finals odds update in real time based on the odds from our best sports betting sites.

🏀 Thunder NBA Finals preview

Our Oklahoma City preview features key stats - both from the regular and postseason - along with a breakdown of strengths and weaknesses and a spotlight on the team's key players. We're also breaking down how the Thunder got to the NBA Finals before providing a best bet for the season's final series.

🔢 Thunder key stats

All advanced and traditional statistics from NBA.com.

Statistic	Regular season	Postseason
Offensive rating	119.2 (3rd)	115.9 (3rd)
Defensive rating	106.6 (1st)	104.7 (1st)
Net rating	12.7 (1st)	11.2 (2nd)
Points per game	120.5 (4th)	117.1 (3rd)
Assists per game	26.9 (12th)	25.3 (3rd)
Rebounds per game	44.8 (11th)	44.3 (4th)
Field-goal percentage	48.2% (7th)	46.4% (4th)
3-point percentage	37.4% (6th)	33.6% (14th)
Turnovers per game	11.7 (1st)	11.8 (2nd)
Opponent points per game	107.6 (3rd)	106.3 (4th)
Blocks per game	5.7 (2nd)	5.6 (T-4th)
Steals per game	10.3 (1st)	10.8 (1st)

💪 Thunder strengths & weaknesses

✅ Defense: Oklahoma City features one of the best defenses in NBA history, full stop. The Thunder led the league in many defensive metrics - defensive rating, steals, etc. - and these numbers have translated to the postseason. Each starter can defend one through five, and they've got defensive stars like Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace coming off the bench.

✅ Depth: Oklahoma City is among the deepest teams in the league. The Thunder have nine players averaging 10-plus minutes per game, with Kenrich Williams (9.1) and Jaylin Williams (9.0) knocking on the door. Mark Daigneault's depth allows OKC to go on unprecedented runs at any point throughout the game.

✅ Efficiency: The Thunder rank inside the top three in offensive, defensive, and net ratings, as well as turnovers and steals per game. Simply put, Oklahoma City takes care of the basketball at an elite clip. It is not afraid to settle for high-percentage shots anywhere on the floor. The Thunder take what teams give them, and that's a major key to their success.

❌ 3-point shooting: It's hard to find many flaws in Oklahoma City's game, but the most glaring hole is in the 3-point department. The Thunder don't shoot terribly well from beyond the arc, although Lu Dort and Chet Holmgren can heat up from deep. If opponents are knocking down 3-pointers, games can occasionally get away from OKC.

❌ Youth: It's easy to forget how young the Thunder are when watching them play. The NBA's youngest team didn't get here by coincidence, and many concerns about inexperience were squashed in a blowout Game 7 win over Denver, but some inconsistencies do exist. Youth hasn't gotten Oklahoma City in trouble yet, but it could at any moment.

⛹️‍♂️ Thunder key players

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG): SGA looks to become the fourth player in league history to win the NBA Finals, Finals MVP, regular season MVP, and a scoring title in the same season. He'd join elite company that includes Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Michael Jordan (3x), and Shaquille O'Neal. He is the runaway NBA Finals MVP favorite at -550 at our best sports betting apps.
Jalen Williams (SF): J-Dub - as he's been nicknamed by Thunder faithful to avoid confusion with teammate Jaylin Williams (J-Will) - is having a career year. He's averaging career highs in points, assists, rebounds, and steals, earning him All-NBA and All-Defense honors. Williams is +3500 at DraftKings to win Finals MVP.
Chet Holmgren (PF): Holmgren is the definition of a game-changer at both ends of the floor. He's a 7-footer equipped with a 3-point stroke and elite rim protection. Do we need to say any more about the 23-year-old? The Gonzaga product is trading at +8000 to win Finals MVP at our best sportsbooks.

👉 Check out our NBA Finals MVP odds for a full list of betting lines for each player

📈 Thunder path to the NBA Finals

Regular season: 68-14 (No. 1 seed in the West)
First round: 4-0 series win vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Western Conference semifinals: 4-3 series win vs. Denver Nuggets
Western Conference finals: 4-1 series win vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

🏆 Best Thunder bet for the NBA Finals

There is no value in picking Oklahoma City to win the NBA Finals straight up - none, zero, zilch. The best odds on the market for the Thunder to lift the Larry O'Brien Trophy are -700 at BetMGM, meaning bettors would have to wager $700 for $100 in profits. Therefore, we've turned to the exact series predictions market to find value.

We've settled on Oklahoma City to win the series in five games. The Thunder have dispatched the Grizzlies and Timberwolves with relative ease this postseason. Only the Nuggets - who have the best player on the planet - managed to put up a fight across an entire series. While Indiana deserves respect, we believe OKC will be too much for the Pacers to handle in the end.

DraftKings offers the best NBA odds on the market for this future play, with a $10 winning wager returning $25 in profits.

✅ Best bet: Thunder to win NBA Finals 4-1 (+250 via DraftKings)

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🗓️ 2025 NBA Finals schedule: Pacers vs. Thunder

Game 1: Thursday, June 5 at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Game 2: Sunday, June 8 at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City (8 p.m. ET, ABC)
Game 3: Wednesday, June 11 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Game 4: Friday, June 13 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Game 5: Monday, June 16 at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC)*
Game 6: Thursday, June 19 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC)*
Game 7: Sunday, June 22 at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City (8 p.m. ET, ABC)*

* if necessary

💡 More NBA Finals expert picks & analysis

💵 Best NBA Finals betting sites

Want to bet on the NBA Finals? Check out the best NBA betting sites and best sportsbook promos for Pacers vs. Thunder:

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Written By:
Gabe Henderson

Gabe Henderson is a sports betting writer from Houston, Texas. He graduated from Louisiana State University in 2022 with a bachelor's degree in Mass Communication. Gabe developed an interest in sports betting while in college due to its legalization in Louisiana. He turned his passion into a career shortly after, joining The Advocate/NOLA.com as a Sports Betting Content Coordinator, where he spent two years. Gabe wore many hats before graduating as he led FanSided's coverage of Chelsea FC as a Site Expert with "The Pride of London." He was also the Editor-in-Chief of the LSU Gumbo Yearbook for two years. Gabe became a part of the SportsbookReview.com team in late 2024. He brings with him an extensive knowledge of many sports, including — but not limited to — NFL, NCAA, MLB, NBA, soccer, and UFC.