Thunder vs. Bucks Predictions, Best NBA Odds & Player Props for Tonight: March 16
We're expecting fireworks tonight at the Fiserv Forum when the NBA championship odds contenders Milwaukee Bucks host the Oklahoma City Thunder (9 p.m. ET, ESPN), with two of the top scorers, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Giannis Antetokounmpo, going head to head.
Our Thunder vs. Bucks predictions and player props Giannis Antetokounmpo to be Milwaukee's key set-up man while also featuring Taurean Prince and Damian Lillard.
Thunder vs. Bucks updated betting action
The Thunder opened as 4.5-point favorites, which is where they remain in the lead-up to tipoff. At BetMGM, a staggering 85% of the best and 92% of the handle is on the Thunder.
The total opened at 232.5 and has decreased to 231.5. Of the Over/Under bets, 64% and 81% of the handle is on the Over. The Thunder's moneyline odds shortened from -175 to -200.
💰 Best Thunder vs. Bucks predictions & NBA player props tonight: March 16
Here are my best Thunder vs. Bucks predictions and player props for tonight's NBA matchup with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. Be sure to check out the rest of our NBA picks along with our guide on how to bet on the NBA.
✅ Game pick: Bucks +4.5 (-102 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Damian Lillard player prop pick: Over 22.5 points (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Taurean Prince player prop pick: Over 1.5 three-pointers (-154 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Giannis Antetokounmpo player prop pick: Over 6.5 assists (+102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
⛹️ Thunder vs. Bucks player prop picks
Here are my best Thunder vs. Bucks player prop bet odds and expert picks for tonight's NBA matchup. You can also check out our NBA player prop odds tool for the latest NBA odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.
🏀 Damian Lillard Over 22.5 points (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -105 via BetMGM ($10 to win $9.52)
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Lillard has scored 23 or more points in 37 of 56 games this season, yet we’re getting this line at -105 odds. This is tremendous value, and I’m ecstatic to bet the Over.
Over his last 11, Lillard has averaged 24 points and hit the Over on this line six times. He scored exactly 22 points in three more games. Dame is scoring 25.8 points at home compared to 24.5 on the road, and he’s hit the Over in 22 of 31 at Fiserv Forum.
On the season, the Thunder have allowed the fewest points to PGs at 22.4, but over the last seven, they’ve allowed the 12th-most at 27.6. I’m hammering the Over on this low scoring line, especially as I expect this matchup to easily clear the 231.5 point total.
📊 Best Damian Lillard prop bet odds
🏀 Taurean Prince Over 1.5 three-pointers (-154) ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -154 via DraftKings ($10 to win $6.49)
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Prince is knocking down 1.9 triples per game with the Bucks, his most since the 2019-20 campaign. He’s hitting them at a 44.7% clip, easily the most efficient mark of his career. Prince has hit multiple threes in 38 of 65 games this season, including 22 of 35 at home, where he’s averaging two per game.
On the season, the Thunder have allowed the eighth-fewest three-pointers (13.1) and lowest three-point percentage (33.7). Over the last 10, however, the Thunder have surrendered 15.3 three-pointers (fourth-most) and 36.4% from beyond the arc (16th).
📊 Best Taurean Prince prop bet odds
🏀 Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 6.5 assists (+102) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +102 via FanDuel ($10 to win $10.20)
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Antetokounmpo has posted some monster numbers this season, but he’s slowed down as a scorer as of late. Pre All-Star break, he averaged 31.8 points, but he’s averaged just 26.9 since returning from the break. While his individual production has dipped on offense, he’s stepped it up as a playmaker, and I’ll happily target his assists line at plus money tonight.
Over his last 11, the Greek Freak has averaged 6.6 dimes and hit the Over on this line in seven games. He’s averaging 5.9 assists per game on the season, including 6.1 at home compared to just 5.9 on the road. Antetokounmpo has dished seven or more dimes in three straight, and I expect him to extend that streak tonight
📊 Best Giannis Antetokounmpo prop bet odds
🎯 Expert Thunder vs. Bucks score prediction & AI projections
🔮 Expert score prediction: Thunder 127, Bucks 123
🤖 AI score prediction: Thunder 118, Bucks 112
🔮 Expert score prediction: Thunder 127, Bucks 123
The Bucks and Thunder have been solid since returning from the All-Star break, but I lean toward the MVP favorite who is playing some of the best basketball of his career. SGA is leading the NBA’s most potent offense, and he’s keenly aware that strong performances down the stretch can clinch the top seed in the West and the individual accolade.
Over the last 10 games, the Thunder and Bucks have combined to average 244.8 points, so I expect a high-scoring game. Oklahoma City is 5-0 ATS across its last five on the road, and the Thunder are 18-13 ATS when facing teams with a .500 or better record this season.
📊 Best odds: +19000 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $1,900)
🤖 AI score prediction: Thunder 118, Bucks 112
(Score prediction and analysis via ChatGPT - a large language model from OpenAI. While ChatGPT is not specifically designed for predicting sporting events, it can spot trends or insights that bettors might overlook.)
🖥️ AI predictions for Thunder vs. Bucks
The projected final score is Thunder 118, Bucks 112.
- Win probability: Thunder 62% | Bucks 38%
- Projected total points: 230
- Key takeaways:
- Thunder’s Edge: OKC leads the Western Conference and is on a two-game win streak, with Gilgeous-Alexander (33 PPG) continuing his MVP-caliber season
- Injury Factor: The Bucks are fully healthy, while the Thunder have multiple key players (Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort) listed as questionable. Their availability could swing the spread
- Betting Value: The Thunder are favored by 4 points, and the total is set at 231.5. With two elite offenses, the over looks appealing if OKC’s stars suit up
🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI score prediction leans toward Oklahoma City covering the spread (-4.5) and a total of Under 231.5 points.
📊 Live Thunder vs. Bucks odds & NBA betting splits tonight
Here are the latest Thunder vs. Bucks odds and betting splits from our best live betting sites.
🔢 Thunder vs. Bucks latest odds & betting lines
🏆 Who will win Thunder vs. Bucks?
As of Sunday morning, Oklahoma City is favored by 4.5 points to beat Milwaukee with moneyline odds of -164 at FanDuel, which suggest a 62.12% win probability for the Thunder. We're predicting a 127-123 win for Oklahoma City as our final score projection.
So far, 54% of bettors have wagered against the spread on Milwaukee +4.5, while 70% of bettors expect the game to finish Over the projected total of 231.5 points.
🚑 Thunder vs. Bucks injuries
Here are the latest injuries for tonight's Thunder vs. Bucks matchup, which will update in real time.
📺 How to watch Thunder vs. Bucks tonight
📅 Date: March 16
🕗 Time: 9 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Fiserv Forum (Milwaukee)
📺 TV: ESPN
❓ Thunder vs. Bucks FAQs
Who is favored to win Thunder vs. Bucks?
The Thunder are favored to beat the Bucks (-164 at FanDuel) with an implied probability of 62.12%.
What are the odds for Thunder vs. Bucks
The Thunder are favored by as many as 4.5 points, and the point total is set as high as 231.5.
What time is Thunder vs. Bucks tonight?
The Thunder and Bucks tip off at 9 p.m. ET from Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee.
How to watch Thunder vs. Bucks
The Thunder and Bucks game will air live on ESPN.
🏀 Best NBA betting sites
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