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Timberwolves vs. Suns Picks, Predictions: Expect a Defensive Battle

Shane Jackson

Last Updated: November 1, 2022 10:46 AM EDT • 3 min 1 sec read.

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns will square off on Tuesday in a compelling matchup between two Western Conference contenders. Read on for our Timberwolves-Suns picks.

Both the Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns are off to strong starts to begin the 2022-23 NBA regular season.

The Suns, who were the top seed in the Western Conference last year, have picked up right where they left off with a 5-1 clip to begin the season.

For their part, the Timberwolves are 4-3 after winning a play-in game last year and bolstering their squad this past offseason to make a deeper run this postseason. Tuesday’s tilt in Phoenix figures to be a good litmus test for both squads.

Here are my NBA picks and predictions for Tuesday's game between the Timberwolves and Suns (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Timberwolves vs. Suns Game Info

Date: Tuesday, Nov. 1, 10 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
Location: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ

Timberwolves vs. Suns Odds

Timberwolves vs. Suns Odds Analysis

The Suns opened as 4.5-point favorites at home, but the line has since dropped to 3.5 points across the board as of Tuesday morning. DraftKings is offering -105 juice on the 3.5-point spread, so you can save a few cents by taking advantage of its pricing if you wish to back the home team.

Phoenix, which is 4-2 against the spread, is getting 65% spread wagers via the sportsbook consensus at Pregame.com. The Wolves, who are 3-4 ATS, are receiving 76% of the handle on the Moneyline as +140 underdogs at DraftKings.

As for the total, the opening number of 229.5 has dropped down to 227.5 at most shops. Around 68% of tickets are on the Over and 54% of the money is on the Under. The Under has hit in eight combined games between these two teams so far this season.

Timberwolves vs. Suns Picks

  • Spread: Suns -3.5 (-105 via DraftKings)
  • Over/Under: Under 227.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
  • Prop bet: Timberwolves Under 112.5 (-110 via FanDuel) 

Timberwolves vs. Suns ATS Pick

Suns -3.5 (-105) ★★★

There was a lot of outside noise about the Suns entering the season, but they appear to be just as potent on the court as they were last year. After a 1-1 start to the season, the Suns have won four in a row over the Los Angeles Clippers, Golden State Warriors, New Orleans Pelicans, and Houston Rockets.

During this win streak, the Suns have won each game by double digits and have outscored their opponents by a combined 74 points. They don’t seem to be on the verge of slowing down with back-to-back home meetings against the Portland Trail Blazers on deck later in the week.

If this all sounds familiar, it is because the Suns kind of did this last year. They opened the 2021-22 campaign with a 1-4 ATS clip before rattling off seven straight covers and eventually becoming the team to beat in the regular season.

I’m betting on the Suns to eventually pull away from a Timberwolves team still trying to figure out what works and what doesn’t.

Timberwolves vs. Suns O/U Pick 

Under 227.5 (-105) ★★★★

The early action on the Under should come as no surprise, as both of these teams rank inside the top five in points allowed per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning The Glass. They both also rank in the top seven of defensive rating, with the Suns in fourth (107.9) and the T-Wolves in seventh (108.7) entering Tuesday.

The Suns have been especially good in the interior, as they are eighth in opponent points in the paint per game, per TeamRankings. That doesn’t bode well for a Minnesota team that has a strong post presence with the addition of Rudy Gobert in the offseason. 

However, the T-Wolves should be able to hold their own on the defensive end, especially since they are allowing teams to shoot just 43% from the floor. Given the style of play for both teams, I like this game to finish well Under the total.

Timberwolves vs. Suns Prop Pick

Timberwolves Under 112.5 (-110) ★★★★

Since I already suggested taking the Under, it makes sense to double down with a team total on the visitors. Phoenix has yet to give up more than 113 points in a game, and even that performance took overtime to get there in a 113-111 loss to the Dallas Mavericks.

Through the early part of the season, the Suns rank third in scoring defense by giving up 106.3 points per game. That number is even better during this win streak, as they are allowing 105 points per contest since Oct. 23.

With the Under on Minnesota’s team total of 112.5 priced at -120 on DraftKings, I see value in taking this line at FanDuel.

Where to Bet on Timberwolves-Suns Picks

Timberwolves-Suns picks made 11/01/2022 at 12:10 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Shane Jackson
Shane Jackson has been writing for Sportsbook Review since 2022, though his passion for sports, writing, and betting runs much longer than that. He graduated from the University of Kansas with a journalism degree in 2017 and has been covering sports ever since, working for MLB.com, Manhattan Mercury, Lawrence Journal-World, WynnBET, Bet Chicago Sports, BetNOLA, and BetMGM. Jackson cares about creating quality sports betting content above all else. He uses a mixture of models, information, film, analysis, and a top-down approach to locate every best bet shared for SBR. He never gives out a pick that he wouldn’t be willing to spend his own money on. Jackson is focused on finding +EV bets on a daily basis for a variety of sports such as NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, and MLB. He usually bets on props but is willing to wager on a spread or total when there is an edge. Don’t ask him how many bets he has placed on a typical college football Saturday. Jackson doesn’t care if you follow him on social media, but his Twitter account has info on how you can follow his bets through multiple third-party platforms. He just wants you to read all the great work from the SBR team.