Underdog NBA Picks Tonight: Best Player Picks & Pick ‘Em Predictions for March 7
The NBA is always exciting, but building a pick’em card at Underdog can take the action to another level. You can choose higher or lower on key stats to test your predictions, with dozens of player projections available each night.
Tonight’s slate tips off at 7 p.m. ET, and we've highlighted our top Underdog NBA picks, including two five-star plays featuring superstar talents Anthony Edwards and Bam Adebayo. Let’s break down the best selections for tonight’s key matchups.
🤕 Key NBA players ruled out tonight
- Jaren Jackson Jr. (ankle), Grizzlies vs. Mavericks
- RJ Barrett (ankle), Raptors vs. Jazz
- Lauri Markkanen (back), Jazz vs. Raptors
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (rest), Thunder vs. Trail Blazers
- Damontas Sabonis (hamstring), Kings vs. Spurs
- Norman Powell (hamstring), Clippers vs. Knicks
💰 Best Underdog NBA Pick ‘Em predictions for Friday
🎯 Anthony Edwards Lower than 26.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Bam Adebayo Lower than 19.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Christian Braun Higher than 16.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Chirs Paul Higher than 15.5 points + assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Josh Hart Higher than 29.5 points + rebounds + assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🐶 Join Underdog today!
Get started with Underdog Fantasy today using Underdog promo code “SBR1000” for a 50% deposit match up to $1,000!
✅ Legal in 40 U.S. states, Washington D.C., and all Canadian provinces (except Ontario).
📲 Sign up now to start making NBA picks and competing for real-money payouts!
Terms and conditions apply.
🏆 Tonight's best Underdog NBA picks
🎯 Anthony Edwards ⬇️ 26.5 points
The Miami Heat sell out to stop opposing top scorers, especially when they are wings. The Heat's defense ranks as the second-best in points allowed per game to opposing shooting guards, and the Timberwolves have used Edwards at that position for 64% of his minutes. Miami leads the NBA against the position over the last 15 games.
While Miami’s defense deserves praise, the Heat's pace makes taking the lower on this player projection at Underdog so attractive. The Heat have been the NBA’s slowest team since the All-Star break.
Miami is a tough team to score against, as it boasts the 12th-best defensive rating. That may explain why other pick’em sites like PrizePicks are setting Edwards’ projection at 25.5.
🎯 Bam Adebayo ⬇️ 19.5 points
The Miami Heat are on the front end of a back-to-back set this evening. They’ll host the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight before doing the same with the Chicago Bulls tomorrow. The Timberwolves haven’t been especially efficient this year, but they've been handling opposing bigs well despite losing Rudy Gobert.
On the year, the Timberwolves are allowing the third-fewest points per game to opposing centers (20). They rank fourth while giving up even fewer points to the position over the last 15 games (18). And across the last seven—all of which Gobert has missed—they rank second (15.4).
As a result, it’s a great spot to fade Adebayo.
🎯 Christian Braun ⬆️ 16.5 points
The Phoenix Suns have been one of the NBA’s worst teams in the fast break since the All-Star Break. They rank fourth-worst in fast-break points allowed per game (19.4) and second-worst in points surrendered off turnovers (22.1). That sets up well for a Denver offense that can distribute the ball downcourt quite effectively, and often to Christian Braun.
He leads the NBA in fast-break points per game with 5.1. Braun's average has dipped slightly to 3.7 since the All-Star break, but this is a great bounce-back matchup for him. With Braun averaging 15.1 points per game and Aaron Gordon on the injury report, I hold faith that the young wing will beat projections this evening.
🎯 Chris Paul ⬆️ 15.5 points + assists
Most people were writing Paul off when the San Antonio Spurs traded for De’Aaron Fox. But his production alongside Fox was solid, and there's still a major role for him to play in this offense now that Victor Wembanyama is out for the year. Paul has been averaging 7.6 points and 6.8 assists per game since Wemby's injury in mid-February, good for 14.4 total here.
Although Paul’s average isn’t quite as high as we’d like relative to his projection of 15.5, the matchup makes up for the difference. He’ll play the Sacramento Kings tonight. The Kings rank as a below-average team in assists allowed per game (26.9), and they've become even worse since the All-Star Break (28.3).
Look for Paul to be an effective distributor tonight, and to cash in on his few shot attempts.
🎯 Josh Hart ⬆️ 29.5 points + rebounds + assists
Jalen Brunson went down during the New York Knicks' overtime loss last night, and he’ll surely miss tonight’s game against the Los Angeles Clippers. His absence will thrust Josh Hart into a higher-volume role, making now the ideal time to pounce.
Hart is projected for 29.5 points, rebounds, and assists tonight. In his lone game without Brunson this year, Hart racked up 15 points, 14 rebounds, and 12 assists for 41 in total.
A one-game sample isn’t that meaningful, so let’s look at what Hart did without Brunson last year.
Hart averaged 12.8 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 5.4 assists over a five-game stretch, falling short of tonight’s projection with only 26.4. However, he played fewer than 30 minutes in two of those games, a threshold he’ll certainly clear tonight.
Without those two contests, Hart averaged 17.3 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 7.7 assists for an average total of 34.
❓ How to play Underdog NBA Pick 'Em
Underdog Fantasy’s NBA Pick ‘Em allows players to compete by selecting Higher or Lower for various stat categories, such as points, rebounds, assists, and three-pointers made.
Choose 2-5 player picks and predict whether they’ll finish higher or lower than the projected total. If you hit on all of your picks in "Standard" (or less with "Flex"), you'll win.
🔢 Underdog NBA scoring
🏀 Higher/Lower Picks: Pick whether a player will finish with a total higher or lower than the stat projection set by Underdog.
🏀 Multiplier-based payouts: The more picks you hit, the bigger your payout will be - up to 20x your initial entry fee.
🏀 Insured options: Choose to reduce risk with a "Flex" entry for a lower multiplier while still cashing in on correct picks.
⛹️♂️ Underdog NBA lineups
Unlike traditional DFS contests, Underdog NBA Pick ‘Em focuses solely on stat-based predictions and whether the player finishes with a higher or lower total.
No salary cap, no drafting a full lineup - just select your picks for today's games and decide whether to insure your picks for a lower payout or try to maximize your profits.
💰 How Underdog payouts work
Underdog’s Pick ‘Em standard payouts are based on multipliers for the number of picks in the entry:
🏀 2 correct picks = 3x your entry fee
🏀 3 correct picks = 6x your entry fee
🏀 4 correct picks = 10x your entry fee
🏀 5 correct picks = 20x your entry fee
With a "Flex" entry, even if one pick is wrong, you can still win a reduced payout:
🏀 2 correct picks = 1x your entry fee
🏀 3 correct picks = 1.5x your entry fee
🏀 4 correct picks = 2.5x your entry fee
🏀 5 correct picks = 2.6x your entry fee
🏀 6 correct picks = 2.75x your entry fee
🏀 7 correct picks = 3x your entry fee
You can even get some (or all) of your entry fee back with two losing picks on a "Flex" entry with six or more picks:
🏀 4 correct picks = 0.25x your entry fee
🏀 5 correct picks = 0.5x your entry fee
🏀 6 correct picks = 1x your entry fee
🌎 Where to play Underdog NBA
Underdog Fantasy is available in 40 U.S. states, D.C., and Canada (excluding Ontario). You can download the app or play on Underdog’s official website.
🚨 Not available in: Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ontario, Washington.
Related Articles
