Alabama vs. Florida Prediction Today: SEC Semifinal Best Bets, Odds & Score Picks
Alabama and Florida will square off in today's SEC tournament semifinal after explosive offensive outings on Friday earned them a place in the conference's final four. Tipoff between the Crimson Tide and Gators is set for 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Bridgestone Arena in Nashville.
Our Alabama vs. Florida prediction, odds, and expert picks for expect a high-scoring affair this afternoon. Our best sports betting sites list the Gators as 2.5-point favorites with a total of 178.5.
Alabama and Florida's potent offenses rank third and fifth respectively in adjusted offensive efficiency this season. As such, it shouldn't surprise bettors that sportsbooks expect plenty of scoring in this showdown.
💰 Alabama vs. Florida predictions, expert picks & best bets: SEC Semifinal
Here are my best Alabama vs. Florida predictions, expert picks, and best bets today for the SEC semifinal with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. Be sure to check out the rest of our college basketball picks along with our guide on how to bet on college basketball.
- Against the spread pick: Alabama +3.5 (-110 via FanDuel) vs. Florida ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best player prop bet: Mark Sears over 19.5 points (-115 via Fanatics) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Exact score prediction: Alabama 90, Florida 86 (+18000 via DraftKings)
👉 Check out our latest March Madness projections with our SBR Bracketology ahead of the NCAA Tournament!
🏀 Alabama vs. Florida ATS prediction & best player prop bet pick
Here's why I'm betting on Alabama to cover the spread (+3.5) while targeting Mark Sears Over 19.5 points as my best player prop bet pick for today:
✅ Alabama to cover the spread (+3.5) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I see this game as a pick’em and so do the BartTorvik projections. That system makes the spread Florida -0.9, so I love the prospect of pocketing a few points - although I’ll end up with most of my exposure on the moneyline. Why do I disagree with where the market has landed on this game?
The Recent form favors Alabama. Since Feb. 1, the Crimson Tide rank second overall with the third-best adjusted offensive efficiency, while the Gators rank fifth and seventh in those metrics. Alabama only went 6-4 through that stretch while Florida went 9-2, so Alabama’s better form may be flying under the radar.
Those eager to back Florida may be skeptical of Alabama’s defense, but the Crimson Tide's adjusted defensive rating trails the Gators' by less than one point per 100 possessions during that span. The Tide are 6-1 against the spread as an underdog this year, winning by an average margin of +2.3 while covering by +5.4. Look for them to keep that streak alive today.
📊 Best odds: -110 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $9.09)
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🔥 Mark Sears over 19.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
If Alabama can top Florida, it’ll likely be due to a super-human effort from Sears. The star scored 30 against Florida at the tail end of the regular season, but the Tide dropped that one by five points. He’s coming off a disappointing 13-point performance versus Kentucky in which he shot sub-30% from the field, so we’re betting on a more positive offensive outing here.
Sears averaged 19 points per game this season but stepped up down the stretch in conference playing, scoring 20-plus points through a five-game stretch that lasted from mid-February until his final regular season game at Auburn. Because Sears has cooled off, his points total is a bit lower than I’d make it, so lock in this player prop bet at our best sportsbooks.
📊 Best odds: -115 via Fanatics (bet $10 to win $8.70)
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🎯 Expert Alabama vs. Florida score prediction & AI projections
🔮 Expert score prediction: Alabama 90, Florida 86
🤖 AI score prediction: Florida 88, Alabama 82
🔮 Expert score prediction: Alabama 90, Florida 86
Don’t expect today’s Alabama vs. Florida game to be anything less than a barnburner. Both offenses are in a groove and have the personnel necessary to keep rolling. The total of 175.5 at BetMGM feels a bit low after these teams combined to score 193 in their last meeting, especially after both sides opened the conference tournament without missing a beat.
I’ve got an exact score prediction of Alabama 90, Florida 86, which gets us just over the current total. If you’re looking to get some extra action on this one, consider adding the Over to your card.
📊 Best odds: +18000 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $1,800)
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🤖 AI score prediction: Florida 88, Alabama 82
(Score prediction and analysis via ChatGPT - a large language model from OpenAI. While ChatGPT is not specifically designed for predicting sporting events, it can spot trends or insights that bettors might overlook.)
🖥️ AI predictions for Alabama vs. Florida
Based on current data and trends, the projected final score is Florida 88, Alabama 82.
- Win probability: Alabama 38% | Florida 62%
- Projected total points: 170
- Key takeaways:
- Offensive Efficiency: Both teams boast high-powered offenses. Alabama leads the nation with an average of 91.2 points per game, while Florida averages 84.8 points per game.
- Recent Matchup: In their last meeting on March 5, Florida edged out Alabama with a 99-94 victory on the road, showcasing their ability to compete in high-scoring games.
- Betting Trends: Florida has been strong against the spread, covering in 22 of their 31 games this season. Alabama has also performed well, covering in 18 of their 31 games.
🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI score prediction leans toward Florida covering the spread (-3.5) and a total of under 175.5 points.
📊 Live Alabama vs. Florida odds & latest betting splits
Here are the latest odds for Alabama vs. Florida, which update live in real time. You can also check out our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool for the latest college basketball odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your region.
A majority of spread bets in the hours leading up to today's tipoff between Alabama and Florida are on the Crimson Tide. As such, some of our best live betting sites have adjusted accordingly, dropping the Gators to 2.5-point favorites. The total has also climbed from O/U 174.5 to 178.5.
🔢 Alabama vs. Florida opening odds
Here's a look at the opening odds for Alabama vs. Florida according to BetMGM.
- Spread: Alabama +3.5 (-110) | Florida -3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Alabama +135 | Florida -160
- Over/Under: Over 174.5 (-110) | Under 174.5 (-110)
🏆 Who will win Alabama vs. Florida?
As of Saturday afternoon, Florida is favored by 3.5 points (-105) to beat Alabama with moneyline odds of -160 at BetMGM, which suggest a 61.54% win probability for the Gators. We're predicting a 90-86 win for Alabama as our final score projection.
So far, 56% of bettors have wagered against the spread on Alabama +3.5, while 64% of bettors expect the game to finish over the projected total of 177.5 points.
📺 How to watch Alabama vs. Florida today
📅 Date: Saturday, March 15
🕗 Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Bridgestone Arena (Nashville)
📺 TV: ESPN
💻 Streaming: ESPN+
❓ Alabama vs. Florida FAQs
Who's favored to win the SEC tournament?
The most recent SEC tournament odds reveal that Auburn is favored to win it all.
Who is favored to win Alabama vs. Florida?
Florida is favored to win today’s Alabama vs. Florida game with odds of -160, which carry an implied probability of 61.54%.
What are the betting odds for Alabama vs. Florida?
The Gators are slight favorites over Alabama at BetMGM, with a spread of Alabama +3.5 (-115) | Florida -3.5 (-105), and a total set at 177.5 (-110).
What will be the final score of Alabama vs. Florida?
We're predicting a final score of Alabama 90, Florida 86 entering today's matchup at Bridgestone Arena.
What time is Alabama vs. Florida tonight?
The SEC tournament matchup between Alabama and Florida will tip-off today at 3:30 p.m. ET.
⛹️ Best college basketball betting sites
Looking to bet on college basketball tonight? Here are our best March Madness betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best March Madness betting promos ahead of the NCAA Tournament.
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