Alabama vs. Saint Mary's Prediction, Odds & Preview Today: NCAA Tournament Best Bets
The No. 2 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (26-8) meet the No. 7 seed Saint Mary’s Gaels (29-5) in today's NCAA Tournament second round at 6:10 p.m. ET (TNT) from Rocket Arena in Cleveland.
The Crimson Tide are 5.5-point favorites to advance in the East Region of the March Madness bracket. Their success will depend on how well they can handle the opposing style of the Gaels. We dive into that in our Alabama vs. Saint Mary's prediction, odds, and preview as part of our March Madness predictions.
🏀 Alabama vs. Saint Mary's prediction & picks today
Here are my best Alabama vs. Saint Mary's predictions for the second round of the NCAA Tournament; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any same-game parlay:
✅ Against the spread pick: Alabama -5.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. St. Mary’s ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🔥 Best team prop bet: Alabama Over 76.5 points (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Exact score prediction: Alabama 82, Saint Mary’s 73 (+19000 via DraftKings)
👉 Want more picks? Check out our latest college basketball picks and the rest of our March Madness second-round predictions.
🔢 Alabama vs. Saint Mary's updated betting action
The below updated betting action is via BetMGM.
- Bettors at BetMGM are heavily favoring the Crimson Tide, who are garnering 67% of the action against a spread of -5.5
- Similarly, the Over on 149.5 is generating 61% of the action
- The spread has remained relatively steady, though it did briefly fall to -6.5 in favor of Alabama earlier this morning
🏆 Best Alabama vs. Saint Mary's pick, player prop bet & score prediction
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✅ Alabama to cover the spread: -5.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Gaels trailed 39-27 during the second half of their first-round game against the Vanderbilt Commodores. They outscored the Commodores 32-17 for the remainder of the game while securing the victory.
Though the Commodores led early, the Gaels never let them control the pace, keeping the game low-scoring and limiting possessions. If the Gaels are going to hold any shot at pulling off this upset, they’ll need to do the same on Sunday.
Unfortunately for the Gaels, they won't be able to keep the Crimson Tide under control. The Crimson Tide struggled in the first round against the Robert Morris Colonials, trailing 65-64 with just 7:10 remaining. Then the offense came to life and the Crimson Tide put the game away.
This spread feels like a massive overreaction to how the Crimson Tide played in the first round. They beat the Auburn Tigers and Kentucky Wildcats right before the tournament, so writing Alabama off after sleepwalking against an inferior opponent seems unwise.
And when you consider the Gaels didn’t look great in their first-round win, this spread seems way too favorable to them. The Crimson Tide will speed this game up and knock down enough shots to win easily.
📊 Best odds: -110 via BetMGM ($10 to win $9.09)
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🔥 Alabama Over 76.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Gaels are allowing just 61.2 points per game, which is the fewest in the country. They’re allowing 57.7 points per contest over their last three, and they held the Gonzaga Bulldogs to just 58 points during that stretch. In fact, the Gaels haven’t given up more than 70 points in a game since Jan. 25 when they defeated the Washington State Cougars 80-75. Yet, I still like the Crimson Tide to hit their Over.
The Crimson Tide lead the country while averaging 91.1 points per game. They've scored fewer than 80 points just four times all season. Two of those sub-80-point performances still featured them notching at least 76 points.
This matchup features the ultimate contrast of styles, and the Gaels’ defense has been incredible this season. However, the Crimson Tide are the better team, and the Gaels will need to speed up their play as soon as Alabama takes a slight lead.
📊 Best odds: -120 via DraftKings ($10 to win $8.33)
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🎯 Score prediction: Alabama 82, Saint Mary’s 73
The Gaels are allowing the fourth-fewest points per game in the country. They could frustrate the Crimson Tide, but Alabama has scored fewer than 70 points just once all season. For better or for worse, the Crimson Tide speed up every game, and they’ve proven they can inflict their will on anyone.
Though the Gaels rank 159th in points per game, they’re 36th in offensive efficiency. They'll knock down enough shots against a mediocre Crimson Tide defense to keep this matchup close.
📊 Best odds: +19000 via DraftKings ($10 to win $1,900)
🤖 Alabama vs. Saint Mary's AI prediction
For entertainment purposes, we asked ChatGPT to analyze historical trends and live NCAA Tournament stats before predicting the winner and exact score for Alabama vs. Saint Mary’s. Our AI prediction projects a final score of Alabama 82, Saint Mary’s 71.
🖥️ AI score prediction: Alabama 82, Saint Mary’s 71
- The Crimson Tide tend to boast strong offensive capabilities with dynamic scoring from both the inside and with perimeter shooting. In particular, their guard play and fast pace are important assets.
- Saint Mary’s is a team that often excels defensively. It's known for a disciplined, methodical style of play, which contrasts with Alabama’s fast-paced offense.
- If Alabama can push the pace, the Crimson Tide could overwhelm the Gaels. However, if Saint Mary’s can slow down the game and limit Alabama’s scoring opportunities, the Gaels hold a chance to control the tempo.
🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean Alabama covering the spread (-5.5) and a total of Over 148.5 points. ChatGPT is not a dedicated sports betting model, but it can identify data that March Madness bettors might overlook.
📊 Live Alabama vs. Saint Mary's odds
Follow the latest live March Madness college basketball odds and real-time NCAA Tournament scores for the second round.
Latest Alabama vs. Saint Mary's odds
Here are the latest odds for Alabama vs. Saint Mary's from BetMGM ahead of tipoff:
Spread
Alabama is the 5.5-point favorite against the spread in the hours before game time. That line has been mostly steady, though it did shift to -6.5 for a little earlier this morning.
Total
The total started at 148.5, and around noon ET today it went up to 149.5 at BetMGM, no doubt as a result of heavy action on the Over.
Moneyline
The moneyline has also been nearly stagnant while listing Alabama as the -235 favorite, though it did shift to -250 briefly Friday morning.
🔢 Alabama vs. Saint Mary's opening odds
- Spread: Alabama -5.5 (-110) | Saint Mary’s +5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Alabama -230 | Saint Mary’s +195
- Over/Under: Over 148.5 (-110) | Under 148.5 (-110)
📺 How to watch Alabama vs. Saint Mary's: NCAA Tournament second round
📅 Date: Sunday, March 23
🕗 Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Rocket Arena (Cleveland)
📺 TV: TNT
💻 Streaming: March Madness Live
Today's March Madness game picks
Here are today's best game previews and predictions:
- Florida vs. UConn prediction
- Duke vs. Baylor prediction
- Kentucky vs. Illinois prediction
- Alabama vs. St. Mary's prediction
- Maryland vs. Colorado State prediction
- Iowa State vs. Ole Miss prediction
- Michigan State vs. New Mexico prediction
- Arizona vs. Oregon prediction
💰 March Madness betting odds pages
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