Arizona vs. Baylor Prediction, Odds & Preview: Best Picks for Tonight
Caleb Love right after Valentine's Day. How can you go wrong? We expect Love to have a productive outing in our Arizona vs. Baylor prediction and odds, leading the Wildcats to their first win in three games.
There's no question that Arizona hasn't lived up to its preseason March Madness odds hype, but there's still time to change the narrative.
Tonight's contest occurs at Foster Pavilion in Waco, Texas (10 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Arizona vs. Baylor predictions tonight
College basketball picks based on the odds from our best March Madness betting sites.
- Against the spread pick: Arizona +1.5 (-105 via Caesars) vs. Baylor ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best pick: Caleb Love Over 16.5 points (-125 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Arizona vs. Baylor ATS prediction
Arizona to cover the spread: +1.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Despite the Wildcats' inconsistent play, they nearly took down a Houston program expected to earn a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, per Bracket Matrix. The loss speaks to how tough the Big 12 is this season, with Arizona being one of five teams in the conference projected to earn a top-four seed.
Led by last year's Wooden Award odds contender Caleb Love, the Wildcats are second in conference play in PPG (78.0) and third in field goal percentage (46%). With Love leading the offensive charge, Tommy Lloyd's squad should be able to challenge a Baylor defense that's outside the top six in field goal percentage allowed (43.7%), 3-point percentage allowed (34.3%), and made free throws allowed (12.1) in the Big 12.
Scott Drew's defense has been an issue this season. According to KenPom, it ranks just 65th in adjusted efficiency, which will make it challenging to keep up with the Wildcats. That's especially true because of how well Arizona has played on defense this year—it ranks 12th in adjusted efficiency and allows the second-lowest field goal percentage (41.2%) in Big 12 play.
Zona is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 outings, while Baylor is just 3-7. If Arizona can continue its recent momentum and cover for the second time this season against the Bears, a $10 bet pays a $9.52 profit.
Best odds: -105 via Caesars | Implied probability: 51.22%
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Best Arizona vs. Baylor pick
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Caleb Love Over 16.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
While Love hasn't taken the leap expected of him as a fifth-year senior, last year's Pac-12 Player of the Year is still one of the most dangerous scorers in the country. He's putting up 16.4 PPG against Big 12 teams and is coming off a 17-point performance against a Cougars defense that's No. 3 in adjusted efficiency.
Between his high volume (14.5 shots per game) and consistency as a free throw shooter (86.5%), Love should have every opportunity to put up points against this lackadaisical Baylor defense. Love has gone for Over 16.5 points five times in his last eight games, including 22-plus three times.
On the season, he's put up 17-plus in 12 of 25 games, and if he does it again, a $10 bet pays an $8 profit.
Best odds: -125 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 55.56%
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Arizona vs. Baylor AI prediction
AI score prediction: Arizona 78 Baylor 73
(Score prediction and analysis via ChatGPT)
Considering both teams' recent performances and the betting lines, the projected final score is Arizona 78, Baylor 73.
- Arizona is favored by 5.5 points and given their previous victory over Baylor and their current form, they are likely to cover the spread
- With the total set at 149.5 points, both teams have demonstrated offensive capabilities, suggesting the Over might be a favorable bet
- The Wildcats have been performing well in their inaugural Big 12 season, currently holding second place in the conference and they secured an 81-70 victory over Baylor earlier this season as 5.5-point home favorites
This game promises to be a competitive matchup, with both teams eager to improve their standings in the Big 12 Conference.
Live Arizona vs. Baylor odds
See all of this week's college basketball odds and NCAAB scores.
Arizona vs. Baylor opening odds
- Spread: Arizona +1.5 (-115) | Baylor -1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: Over 151.5 (-110) | Under 151.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Arizona +105 | Baylor -125
Arizona vs. Baylor game info
- When: Monday, Feb. 17
- Tipoff: 10 p.m. ET
- Where: Foster Pavilion (Waco, Texas)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Favorite: Baylor -1.5 (-108 via DraftKings)
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