Auburn vs. Alabama State Prediction, Odds & Preview Today: NCAA Tournament First Round Best Bets
In the most lopsided matchup of today's first-round March Madness action, the No. 1 seed Auburn Tigers (28-5) play the No. 16 seed Alabama State Hornets (20-15) with tipoff from Rupp Arena in Lexington, Ky., at 2:50 p.m. ET on CBS.
Auburn, the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament, is a 31.5-point betting favorite to advance in the South Region of the March Madness bracket. Alabama State earned its spot in this matchup with a First Four win.
Here's my best Auburn vs. Alabama State prediction, odds, and preview as part of our March Madness predictions.
🏀 Auburn vs. Alabama State prediction & picks today
Here are my best Auburn vs. Alabama State predictions for the first round of the NCAA Tournament; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any same-game parlay:
✅ Against the spread pick: Auburn -31.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Alabama State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🔥 Best player prop bet: Johni Broome Over 9.5 rebounds (+102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Exact score prediction: Auburn 99, Alabama State 63 (+17000 via DraftKings)
👉 Want more picks? Check out our latest college basketball picks and the rest of our March Madness first-round predictions.
🤖 See our March Madness AI bracket predictions for every game through Monday, April 7
🔢 Auburn vs. Alabama State updated betting action
- 63% of bets are on Alabama State to cover (+32.5)
- 53% of bets are on the Over (149.5)
- The total opened at 150.5; it sits at 149.5 as of Thursday at 8:59 a.m. ET
- Auburn opened as 32.5-point betting favorites. They are now at -32.5 (BetMGM)
🏆 Best Auburn vs. Alabama State pick, player prop bet & score prediction
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✅ Auburn to cover the spread: -31.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The only thing preventing this from being a five-star play is that 31.5 points is a lot, and the Tigers could bench key players late. That could allow the Hornets to log a backdoor cover. That said, this is the most confident I am in any of the No. 1 seeds to cover the spread.
The Hornets' defense was problematic in their First Four game against the St. Francis Red Flash. They allowed the Red Flash to shoot 50% from the floor and 45.5% from 3-point range. The Hornets only shot 42.9% from the floor and 31% from deep, but they stayed in the game by winning the turnover battle 15-9 and securing 12 offensive rebounds while giving up just three.
Unfortunately for the Hornets, on Thursday, they won’t excel in any of the areas they had success on Tuesday. The Tigers average just 9.2 turnovers per game, sixth-best in the nation, and they’re a very good rebounding team. The Tigers average 83.8 points per game. Look for them to score well over that number as they dominate.
📊 Best odds: -110 via BetMGM ($10 to win $9.09)
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🔥 Johni Broome Over 9.5 rebounds ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
The only possible explanation for Broome’s rebounding total being set below his season average is that oddsmakers are assuming he will play limited minutes in a blowout victory. However, even if he barely sees the floor, he should have no problem topping this number against a much smaller opponent.
For example, Broome played just 22 minutes against the Monmouth Hawks earlier this season, but he grabbed 11 rebounds anyway. Against the North Alabama Lions, he grabbed 17 rebounds in 26 minutes, and against the Kent State Golden Flash, he had 12 boards in 28 minutes.
Broome is averaging 10.6 rebounds per game, and while he has recorded single-digit rebounding numbers in blowout wins this season, he’s proven time and time again that he doesn’t need to play a lot to put up great numbers. To get this at better than +100 makes it a five-star play.
📊 Best odds: +102 via FanDuel ($10 to win $10.20)
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🎯 Score prediction: Auburn 99, Alabama State 63
The Hornets may have won a thriller on Tuesday night, but their performance was far from convincing. They struggled to defend the 3-point line and allowed a team that shot just 44.7% from the field this year to shoot 50%.
The Tigers enter this game with the 20th-best field goal percentage in the nation. They’re going to light up the scoreboard, shooting over 50%. They’ll dominate on the boards, leading to increased possessions, and the defense will prevent the Hornets from getting anywhere near their average of 72.1.
📊 Best odds: +17000 via DraftKings ($10 to win $1,700)
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🤖 Auburn vs. Alabama State AI prediction
For entertainment purposes, we asked ChatGPT to analyze historical trends and live NCAA Tournament stats before predicting the winner and exact score for Auburn vs. Alabama State. Our AI prediction projects a final score of Auburn 90, Alabama State 65.
🖥️ AI score prediction: Auburn 90, Alabama State 65
- While Alabama State's return to the tournament is a significant achievement, Auburn's overall strength and tournament pedigree make them the clear favorites
- Historically, No. 1 seeds have dominated No. 16 seeds: only in 2018, when UMBC defeated Virginia, and in 2023, when Fairleigh Dickinson beat Purdue, has the underdog won
- The Hornets secured their tournament berth by winning the SWAC tournament, ending a 14-year absence from the NCAA Tournament
🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean Alabama State covering the spread (+31.5) and a total of Over 150.5 points. ChatGPT is not a dedicated sports betting model, but it can identify data that March Madness bettors might overlook.
📊 Live Auburn vs. Alabama State odds
Follow the latest live March Madness college basketball odds and real-time NCAA Tournament scores for the first round.
Latest Auburn vs. Alabama State odds
We're looking at the latest Auburn vs. Alabama State odds via BetMGM ahead of tipoff.
Spread
Auburn, the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, is a mammoth 32.5-point betting favorite against Alabama State, who earned its spot in this matchup with a First Four victory on Tuesday.
Total
The Over/Under for Auburn vs. Alabama State is set at 147.5 points, with equal odds on the Over and Under.
Moneyline
Auburn is a gargantuan -10000 moneyline favorite for the straight up win. Those odds represent an implied win probability of 99%, so those hoping to back Alabama State may want to reconsider.
🔢 Auburn vs. Alabama State opening odds
- Spread: Auburn -31.5 (-110) | Alabama State +31.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Auburn -10000 | Alabama State +7500
- Over/Under: Over 150.5 (-110) | Under 150.5 (-110)
📅 Check out the full March Madness first-round schedule and opening odds.
📺 How to watch Auburn vs. Alabama State: NCAA Tournament first round
📅 Date: Thursday, March 20
🕗 Time: 2:50 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Rupp Arena (Lexington, Ky.)
📺 TV: CBS
💻 Streaming: March Madness Live
🔮 South Region expert picks
Here are our experts' best predictions for every game in the South Region
- South Region betting preview
- Auburn vs. Alabama State prediction
- Louisville vs. Creighton prediction
- UC San Diego vs. Michigan prediction
- Texas A&M vs. Yale prediction
- Ole Miss vs. North Carolina prediction
- Iowa State vs. Lipscomb prediction
- New Mexico vs. Marquette prediction
- Michigan State vs. Bryant
💰 March Madness betting odds pages
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