What are the Biggest March Madness Upsets of All Time?
Nothing says March Madness like upsets, and we're virtually guaranteed to see some massive underdogs win in the NCAA Tournament every year. There's a reason no one has ever filled out a perfect bracket.
While the odds are insane - the NCAA reports them to be about 1 in 9.2 quintillion - that doesn't mean you shouldn't try. Just don't be shocked when an upset happens and ruins your March Madness bracket. Besides, it probably won't be as big as these.
The NCAA defines an upset as a difference of five seed lines, so we'll hold to that definition as well for the purpose of this article.
Our latest March Madness odds help identify potential early upsets.
🏀 Biggest upsets in March Madness history (first round)
Here's a look at the biggest upsets in NCAA Tournament history by point spread. As it happens, all these upsets happened in the first round, and all included a No. 16 beating a No. 1 or a No. 15 beating a No. 2.
| Year | Matchup | Spread | Final score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Fairleigh Dickinson (16) def. Purdue (1) | 23 points | 63-58 |
| 2012 | Norfolk State (15) def. Missouri (2) | 21.5 points | 86-84 |
| 2018 | UMBC (16) def. Virginia (1) | 20.5 points | 74-54 |
| 1993 | Santa Clara (15) def. Arizona (2) | 20 points | 64-61 |
| 2022 | Saint Peter's (15) def. Kentucky (2) | 18.5 points | 85-79 (OT) |
| 1997 | Coppin State (15) def. South Carolina (2) | 18.5 points | 78-65 |
Here's how to predict March Madness upsets.
🚀 Biggest NCAA Tournament upsets in second round
Things get trickier in the Round of 32, where point spread data isn't always readily available or reliable, but we can still spotlight some of the most shocking upsets based on seeding.
Four No. 15 seeds have emerged from the second round of the NCAA Tournament, all toppling No. 7 seeds in the process. We've also seen a pair of 14-seeds advance, knocking off two 6-seeds along the way. We're still waiting for a No. 16 seed to win a second-round game after both UMBC and FDU lost in the Round of 32.
A slew of No. 9 and No. 8 seeds have eliminated top-seeded teams in the second round. Across the last 10 tournaments, that defeat has happened seven times.
| Year | Matchup | Final score |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Princeton (15) def. Missouri (7) | 78-63 |
| 2022 | Saint Peter's (15) def. Murray State (7) | 70-60 |
| 2021 | Oral Roberts (15) def. Florida (7) | 81-78 |
| 2013 | Florida Gulf Coast (15) def. San Diego State (7) | 81-71 |
| 1997 | Chattanooga (14) def. Illinois (6) | 75-63 |
| 1986 | Cleveland State (14) def. Saint Joseph's (6) | 75-69 |
🍬 Biggest upsets in Sweet 16
The road for No. 15 seeds upsetting teams doesn't end at the second round, as one has even squeaked through its Sweet 16 matchup to find a path to the elite.
But the way things went for No. 16 seeds in the second round? Ya know, end-of-the-road-pack-your-bags stuff? That's how it goes here for No. 14 and No. 13 seeds.
Things get a little more narrow here, as suddenly the lower seed finds itself in "upset" territory less often. As mentioned earlier, the NCAA defines an upset as teams separated by at least five seed lines.
Two No. 12 seeds have advanced through the Sweet 16, but both wins came against No. 8 seeds, so those don't count as official upsets. Ten No. 11 seeds have advanced, but six were against No. 10 and No. 7 seeds - not upsets, per the NCAA.
| Year | Matchup | Final score |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Saint Peter's (15) def. Purdue (3) | 67-64 |
| 2024 | NC State (11) def. Marquette (2) | 67-58 |
| 2021 | UCLA (11) def. Alabama (2) | 88-78 |
| 2017 | Xavier (11) def. Arizona (2) | 73-71 |
| 1986 | LSU (11) def. Georgia Tech (2) | 70-64 |
🎱 Biggest upsets in Elite Eight
Goodbye to the No. 15 and No. 12 teams. The three that made it through the Sweet 16 found no further success. Shockingly, the No. 11 seeds have advanced beyond the Elite Eight at an impressive rate, with six of the 10 to reach the stage continuing their run.
Five were considered upsets - one knocked off a No. 9 seed, which isn't technically an upset. Those other 11-seeds have quite an impressive run knocking off No. 1 seeds. Here's a look at those five No. 11 seeds to pull off Sweet 16 upsets:
| Year | Matchup | Final score |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | NC State (11) def. Duke (4) | 76-64 |
| 2021 | UCLA (11) def. Michigan (1) | 51-49 |
| 2011 | VCU (11) def. Kansas (1) | 71-61 |
| 2006 | George Mason (11) def. Connecticut (1) | 86-84 |
| 1986 | LSU (11) def. Kentucky (1) | 59-57 |
There have been plenty more upsets from lower seeds vs. higher seeds at this point, too. Here's a look at some of the other most shocking exits by No. 1 and No. 2 seeds:
| Year | Matchup | Final score |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Syracuse (10) def. Virginia (1) | 68-62 |
| 2013 | Wichita State (9) def. Ohio State (2) | 70-66 |
| 2014 | Kentucky (8) def. Michigan (2) | 75-72 |
| 2011 | Butler (8) def. Florida (2) | 74-71 |
| 1985 | Villanova (8) def. North Carolina (2) | 56-44 |
| 1992 | Michigan (6) def. Ohio State (1) | 75-71 |
| 1987 | Providence (6) def. Georgetown (1) | 88-73 |
🔢 Biggest Final Four upsets of all time
This is the end of the road for the No. 11, No. 10, and No. 9 seeds, none of whom have ever won a Final Four game. They join their lower-seeded brethren as CInderella teams that failed to convert a historic run into a national championship.
Only four official "upsets" have gone down in the Final Four - and one of them came in the first semifinal matchup ever between long-time rivals:
| Year | Team (Seed) | Final score |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | North Carolina (8) def. Duke (2) | 81-77 |
| 2014 | Kentucky (8) def. Wisconsin (2) | 74-73 |
| 1985 | Villanova (8) def. Memphis State (2) | 52-45 |
| 2014 | Connecticut (7) def. Florida (1) | 63-53 |
Two No. 6 teams have made the national championship game, too, by beating higher-seeded teams, but neither is an "upset."
- 1992: Michigan (6) def. Cincinnati (4), 76-72
- 1988: Kansas (6) def. Duke (2), 66-59
🏆Biggest upsets in March Madness national championship game
Two national championship games fit the technical definition of "upsets" per the NCAA:
- In 1985, Villanova (8) def. Georgetown (1), 66-64, becoming the lowest seed to ever win the national championship
- In 1988, Kansas (6) def. Oklahoma (1), 83-79, becoming the only No. 6 seed to cut down the nets.
UConn won as a No. 7 seed in 2014, but it did so by beating a No. 8 seed in Kentucky after both pulled off Final Four upsets that year.
Let's take a look at some point-spread upsets from the national championship game, including two games that date back further than the expansion to 64 teams in 1985:
| Year | Matchup | Spread | Final score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | Connecticut (1) def. Duke (1) | 9.5 points | 77-74 |
| 1985 | Villanova (8) def. Georgetown (1) | 9 points | 66-64 |
| 1988 | Kansas (6) def. Kansas (1) | 8 points | 83-79 |
| 1983 | NC State (6) def. Houston (1) | 7.5 points | 54-52 |
| 1966 | Texas Western def. Kentucky | 6.5 points | 72-65 |
🎯 Which upsets should you pick in your March Madness bracket?
If we know one thing about March Madness, it's that there will inevitably be a few shocking upsets in the first round and at least one surprise team that makes a deep run through the NCAA Tournament.
So we've asked our college basketball experts to identify the best Cinderella teams ahead of the 2025 NCAA Tournament:
🔮 March Madness predictions for every game today
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🏀 March Madness expert upset picks
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📅March Madness key dates
- Selection Sunday: March 16
- First Four: March 18-19
- First round: March 20-21
- Second round: March 22-23
- Sweet 16: March 27-28
- Elite Eight: March 29-30
- Final Four: Saturday, April 5
- National championship game: Monday, April 7
💰 March Madness betting odds pages
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