College Basketball Best Bets: Tuesday's Predictions, Player Props & ATS Picks

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 12, 2024 7:41 AM EST • 4 min 42 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Duke Blue Devils guard Cooper Flagg as we make our best college basketball bets for Tuesday, Nov. 12. — Duke Blue Devils guard Cooper Flagg brings the ball down court against the Maine Black Bears at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Photo by: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images.

The annual Champions Classic event between four of college basketball’s most historic programs highlights a solid day on the hardwood on Tuesday.

The State Farm Champions Classic from Atlanta features three AP top-19 teams (Michigan State vs. No. 1 Kansas, No. 6 Duke vs. No. 19 Kentucky)
The Big 5 Classic has two campus games on tap as St. Joseph’s hosts Villanova and Temple hosts Drexel
In all, five ranked teams are in action

Our college basketball best bets for Tuesday involve our best player props from each marquee Champions Classic game. They also include our two top ATS plays involving one of the best inter-city rivalries.

Best college basketball player props & ATS predictions for Tuesday

College basketball odds subject to change. Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Jaden Akins Under 14.5 points vs. Kansas (-139 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Cooper Flagg Under 1.5 3-pointers vs. Kentucky (-121 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
St. Joseph’s +2.5 (-105 via DraftKings) vs. Villanova ⭐⭐⭐
Iona -4.5 (-122 via FanDuel) vs. Delaware ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Tuesday's college basketball odds & schedule

(Odds via BetMGM)

Villanova (-2.5) vs. St. Joseph’s
Michigan State vs. No. 1 Kansas (-5.5)
Sam Houston vs. No. 12 Baylor (-15.5)
South Alabama vs. No. 25 Ole Miss (-17.5)
No. 6 Duke (-5.5) vs. No. 19 Kentucky

College basketball props for Tuesday

College basketball picks odds subject to change. Our NEW player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Jaden Akins Under 14.5 points vs. Kansas ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -139 via Caesars | Implied probability: 58.16%

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There are many things that make Kansas one of the top favorites to cut down the nets in terms of our National Championship odds, but one is the Jayhawks elite perimeter defense.

Akins leads Michigan State in scoring at 16.5 points per game, but that means he will draw the defensive assignment of Dajaun Harris and the 6-foot-6 Rylen Griffin. Those two forced Player of the Year candidate R.J. Davis into a poor 3-for-15 shooting night, including 1-of-7 from beyond the arc.

Davis and fellow backcourt mate Seth Trimble did get to the free throw line a combined 21 times for the Tar Heels against the Jayhawks, but Akins did not attempt a single free throw in Michigan State’s last game against Niagara.

Ultimately I chose Caesars’ O/U of 14.5 points at -139 odds over FanDuel’s O/U of 13.5 points at -104 odds

Cooper Flagg Under 1.5 made 3-pointers vs. Kentucky ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -121 via Caesars | Implied probability: 54.75%

The projected No. 1 NBA draft pick, Flagg has not been bashful about hoisting 3-pointers thus far, as he has attempted four shots from beyond the arc in each of the first two games. However, he has connected on just 25% of those attempts, and I expect Kentucky head coach Mark Pope to make Flagg put the ball on the floor more often.

Pope’s BYU team last year allowed opponents to shoot just 32% from 3-point range (63rd-best). And opponents got just 27.5% of their points from beyond the arc against BYU (the 284th-lowest in the country).

Now Pope has a defensive unit that projects as the fifth-best lineup in the country in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency per Evan Miyakawa’s “Top Five-Man Lineups."

This prop was only available at Caesars as of early Tuesday morning. But considering Caesars had Flagg’s O/U for points set at 17.5 compared to FanDuel’s O/U of 16.5, perhaps there will be a better price when his 3-point props become more widespread.

A $10 winning wager at Caesars’ -121 odds would pay out $18.26.

College basketball game predictions for Tuesday

St. Joseph’s to cover the spread (+2.5) vs. Villanova ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -105 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 51.22%

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No coach’s seat is arguably hotter than Villanova’s Kyle Neptune’s. The Villanova faithful were already unhappy with Neptune after he failed to make the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back years after taking over for Jay Wright. The Wildcats already have a double-digit home loss to Columbia on their resume to kick off this season.

This is St. Joseph’s best chance to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2016, and Villanova had no answer for the Hawks’ perimeter shooting in a 78-65 St. Joseph’s win last year when the Hawks shot 51.9% (14-of-27) from 3-point range.

I expect St. Joseph’s to cover this spread behind another big day from Erik Reynolds. Reynolds scored 24 points against the Wildcats last year, and had seven other games with 25-plus points.

Yesterday most of our best sports betting apps had St. Joseph’s as 1.5-point underdogs, but I am still backing the Hawks even though the Wildcats seem to be getting the early betting support.

Iona to cover the spread (-4.5) vs. Delaware ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -122 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.95%

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Iona is 0-2 to start the season, but one has to love what the Gaels did from a scheduling standpoint. They challenged themselves with non-conference games against Hofstra and Ivy League-favorite Princeton.

Gaels head coach Tobin Anderson will make life uncomfortable for every opponent. Iona pressed Princeton on 43 possessions, frustrating the Tigers early as the Gaels raced out to a 16-point lead.

Ultimately, Princeton’s impressive backcourt duo of Xavian Lee and Caden Pierce and the under-the-radar backcourt that Speedy Claxton has at Hofstra proved too much for Iona. However, Delaware does not have the same elite guard play, and a Blue Hens team that averages 14.5 turnovers per game should cave to Iona’s full-court press.

This is my most confident five-star play of the day, and I would play this to -6.5.

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”