Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington Prediction Tonight: CAA Tournament Final Picks & Odds
March Madness has already begun in the Coastal Athletic Association. Tonight, 12-seed Delaware - who finished 5-13 in conference play this year - will play for a CAA Tournament Final against 2-seed UNC Wilmington. Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. ET (CBSSN) from CareFirst Arena in Washington, D.C.
Our Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington prediction, odds, and expert picks highlight the Blue Hens' improbable run, while also predicting its ending. Our best sports betting sites list the Seahawks as 8.5-point favorites in tonight's matchup.
The winner is headed to the NCAA Tournament, so who will punch their ticket to the big dance?
💰 Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington predictions, expert picks & best bets: Coastal Athletic Conference Final
Here are my best Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington predictions, expert picks, and best bets today for the Coastal Athletic Conference Final with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. Be sure to check out the rest of our college basketball picks along with our guide on how to bet on college basketball.
- Against the spread pick: UNC Wilmington -8.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Delaware ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best player prop bet: Donovan Newby Over 13.5 Points (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
👉 Check out our latest March Madness projections with our SBR Bracketology ahead of the NCAA Tournament!
🏀 Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington ATS prediction & best player prop bet pick
While the Blue Hens have put together a spectacular postseason run, they’ve also needed to play an extra two games. Tuesday’s action will be their fifth straight day on the floor. While some may believe in their hot streak, here's why I'm betting on UNC Wilmington to cover the spread (-8.5) while targeting Donovan Newby Over 13.5 points as my best player prop bet pick for today:
✅ UNC Wilmington to cover the spread (-8.5) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Even if we filter things down to just the last four games, which covers only Delaware’s tournament run, the Blue Hens still trail UNC Wilmington in key categories. They hold a slight leg up in adjusted offensive efficiency, but face an 8.8 points per 100 possession hole in adjusted defensive efficiency.
When we zoom out to cover the whole season, Delaware’s relative disadvantage becomes even more obvious. Delaware trails UNC Wilmington offensively by 2.7 points per 100, and on the defensive end by 7.5. The Blue Hens rank as the 325th school in the latter metric, putting them in the 10th percentile.
Regression dictates that a team with an offensive efficiency rating of 108.2 before the tournament is unlikely to maintain the 117.7 that it recorded through its first four games. It'll be difficult for Delaware to cover tonight after its defense looked like a sieve all season.
📊 Best odds: -110 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $9.09)
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🔥 Donovan Newby Over 13.5 Points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
No player has carried the UNC Wilmington offense more than Donovan Newby this year. He led the team in points per game (14.5) and powered them to yesterday’s win while dropping a team-best 24. He recorded a whopping 19 field-goal attempts despite converting only 36.8% of the time, so there isn’t much question of volume in significant moments here.
Newby squared up against Delaware twice during the regular season, scoring 20 in the first meeting and 10 in the second. Importantly, he also averaged 14 field-goal attempts per game in those contests, meaning he should beat his prop total of 13.5 with at least an average shooting performance.
📊 Best odds: -115 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $8.70)
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🎯 Expert Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington score prediction & AI projections
🔮 Expert score prediction: UNC Wilmington 83, Delaware 64
🤖 AI score prediction: UNC Wilmington 74, Delaware 65
🔮 Expert score prediction: UNC Wilmington 83, Delaware 64
I’m a huge skeptic of Delaware’s defense, as the jump the team has seemingly been taking in the conference tournament isn't sustainable. With the total for this game trading at 148.5, I’m interested in the Over, or at least the UNC Wilmington angle. Their team total of 78.5 feels just a bit too low with a ticket to the Big Dance on the line.
Before Charleston held the Seahawks to 68 points on Monday, UNC Wilmington had scored 79-plus in four straight games. Further, the Seahawks have cleared that threshold in 12 of their last 16 contests, including an 88-point outing versus Delaware (they scored 77 in their other meeting).
🤖 AI score prediction: UNC Wilmington 74, Delaware 65
(Score prediction and analysis via ChatGPT - a large language model from OpenAI not specifically designed for predicting sporting events)
🖥️ AI predictions for UNC Wilmington vs. Delaware
UNCW's superior defense, rebounding advantage, and Delaware's potential fatigue from playing five games in as many days will likely lead to the Seahawks controlling the pace and pulling away late, meaning the projected final score is UNC Wilmington 74, Delaware 65.
- Win probability: UNC Wilmington 72% | Delaware 28%
- Projected total points: 139
- Key takeaways:
- UNC Wilmington's defense and rebounding edge: The Seahawks rank in the top 50 nationally in 2-point defense and hold a significant rebounding advantage, which should limit Delaware’s second-chance opportunities.
- Delaware’s fatigue factor: The Blue Hens are playing their fifth game in five days, which could lead to tired legs and lower shooting efficiency as the game progresses.
- UNCW dominated the season series: The Seahawks swept Delaware in the regular season, including an 88-58 blowout win just 10 days ago, showcasing a clear talent gap.
🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI score prediction leans toward UNC Wilmington covering the spread (-7.5) and a total of Under 147.5 points due to Delaware’s likely offensive struggles against a rested and disciplined Seahawks defense.
📊 Live Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington odds & latest betting splits
Here are the latest odds for Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington. You can also check out our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool for the latest college basketball odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your region.
🔢 Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington opening odds
Here's a look at the opening odds for Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington, according to BetMGM.
- Spread: Delaware +8 (-110) | UNC Wilmington -8 (-110)
- Moneyline: Delaware +270 | UNC Wilmington -345
- Over/Under: Over 149.5 (-110) | Under 149.5 (-110)
🏆 Who will win Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington?
As of Tuesday evening, UNC Wilmington is the 8.5-point favorite to beat Delaware, with moneyline odds of -450 at BetMGM, suggesting an 81.82% win probability for the Seahawks. We're predicting an 83-64 win for UNC Wilmington as our final score projection.
So far, 62% of bettors have wagered against the spread on Delaware +8.5, while 55% expect the game to finish Under the projected total of 149.5 points.
📺 How to watch Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington tonight
📅 Date: Tuesday, March 11, 2025
🕗 Time: 7 p.m. ET
📍 Location: CareFirst Arena (Washington, D.C.)
📺 TV: CBSSN
💻 Streaming: Paramount+
❓ Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington FAQs
Who's favored to win the Coastal Athletic Conference tournament?
With just one game remaining in the 2025 Coastal Athletic Conference tournament, the UNC Wilmington Seahawks are favored to win.
Who is favored to win Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington?
UNC Wilmington is a -450 (81.82%) favorite against Delaware.
What are the betting odds for Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington?
Per the latest Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington betting odds, the spread is Delaware +8.5 (-110) | UNC Wilmington -8.5 (-110), with a total of 149.5 points (Over: -110| Under: -110).
What will be the final score of Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington?
We're predicting a final score of UNC Wilmington 83, Delaware 64 entering tonight's matchup at the CareFirst Arena.
What time is Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington tonight?
Tonight’s Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington title matchup will tip-off tonight at 7 p.m. ET.
⛹️ Best college basketball betting sites
Looking to bet on college basketball tonight? Here are our best March Madness betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best March Madness betting promos ahead of the NCAA Tournament.
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