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Duke vs. Alabama Prediction, Odds & Preview Tonight: Best Picks for NCAA Tournament Elite Eight

Mike Spector

Last Updated: March 29, 2025 5:52 PM EDT • 4 min 38 sec read.

Duke vs. Alabama Prediction
Pictured: Duke's Cooper Flagg drives to the basket against Arizona's Jaden Bradley. Photo by Robert Deutsch via Imagn Images.

It’s a heavyweight showdown in the East region as No. 1 seed Duke (34-3) takes on No. 2 seed Alabama (28-8) in the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight. Tipoff from Prudential Center in Newark, N.J., is set for 8:49 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV).

Duke is a 7.5-point favorite, but can Alabama stay within striking distance after its record-breaking shooting display? Our Duke vs. Alabama prediction, odds, and preview break it all down as part of our March Madness predictions.

📈 Duke vs. Alabama betting action

According to BetMGM, 64% of bets are on Alabama +230 to beat Duke tonight. The Crimson Tide are the most bet underdog to win in the Elite Eight. Alabama (+7.5) is also the second-most bet team to cover the spread in the Elite Eight.

🏀 Duke vs. Alabama prediction & picks for tonight's Elite Eight

Here are my best Duke vs. Alabama predictions for the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any same-game parlay:

✅ Against the spread pick: Alabama +7.5 (-118 via DraftKings) vs. Duke ⭐⭐⭐
🔥 Best player prop bet: Tyrese Proctor Under 13.5 points (+100 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Exact score prediction: Duke 91, Alabama 87 (+18000 via DraftKings)

👉 Want more picks? Check out our latest college basketball picks and the rest of our March Madness Elite Eight predictions.    

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✅ Alabama to cover the spread: +7.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Any good shooter will say there are times when you just need to see the ball go through the net, and that can build confidence throughout a game. That's essentially what Crimson Tide guard Mark Sears said after Thursday’s win over BYU.

Alabama set multiple records during its 113-88 win over BYU. That includes making the most 3-pointers in a tournament game (25), and scoring the most points in a Sweet 16 contest (113) since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams.

Duke is the nation's tallest team, and its height should bother Alabama more than BYU did. But the best chance to upset a dominant Blue Devils squad is to catch fire from the perimeter, and no team has a better chance of doing that than Alabama.  

📊 Best odds: -118 via DraftKings ($10 to win $8.47)

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🔥 Tyrese Proctor Under 13.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Duke guard Tyrese Proctor was absolutely on fire entering the Sweet 16, making 19 3-pointers and shooting 63.3% from beyond the arc over his last three games. 

But Arizona smartly focused on the sharpshooter after Proctor had made six-plus 3-pointers in three straight games, holding him to just 1-of-4 from beyond the arc. 

Proctor averaged just over two made 3-pointers per game over the first 32 contests this season. And few teams run shooters off the 3-point line better than Alabama. The Crimson Tide allow opponents to shoot fewer than 35% of their shots from distance, which ranks 51st in the country. 

Therefore, since Proctor has attempted four or fewer 2-pointers in six of his last 11 games, it's hard to see him eclipsing this 13.5-point total given how Alabama is structured defensively. 

📊 Best odds: +100 via FanDuel ($10 to win $10)

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🎯 Score prediction: Duke 91, Alabama 87

Alabama plays at the fastest pace in the country, and it's also the highest-scoring team in Division I while averaging more than 90 points per game. I expect Duke won't mind getting into a track meet with the Crimson Tide, as the more talented team usually prefers to play with more possessions.

That’s why I'm predicting a high-scoring game, with a final score of Duke 91, Alabama 87.

📊 Best odds: +18000 via DraftKings ($10 to win $1800)

🤖 Duke vs. Alabama AI prediction

For entertainment purposes, we asked ChatGPT to analyze historical trends and live NCAA Tournament stats before predicting the winner and exact score for Duke vs. Alabama. Our AI prediction projects a final score of Duke 74, Alabama 71.

🖥️ AI score prediction: Duke 74, Alabama 71

  • Duke’s stifling defense will be tested against Alabama's high-scoring offense. If Duke can limit Alabama's transition game and force the Crimson Tide into half-court sets, it'll hold the upper hand.
  • Alabama’s ability to hit from beyond the arc will be a deciding factor. Duke will need to contest every 3-pointer to prevent Alabama from building momentum.
  • Alabama’s fast-paced style can lead to mistakes. If Duke can capitalize on turnovers and convert those mistakes into easy points, it’ll be in a prime position to win a close game.

🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean Alabama covering the spread (+6.5) and a total of Under 173.5 points. ChatGPT is not a dedicated sports betting model, but it can identify data that March Madness bettors might overlook.

📊 Live Duke vs. Alabama odds

Follow the latest live March Madness college basketball odds and real-time NCAA Tournament scores for the Sweet 16.

🔢 Duke vs. Alabama opening odds

  • Spread: Duke -6.5 (-110) | Alabama +6.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Duke -290 | Alabama +235
  • Over/Under: Over 173.5 (-110) | Under 173.5 (-110)

📺 How to watch Duke vs. Alabama: NCAA Tournament Elite Eight

📅 Date: Saturday, March 29
🕗 Time: 8:49 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Prudential Center (Newark, N.J.)
📺 TV: TBS/truTV
💻 Streaming: March Madness Live

🆚 Elite Eight game predictions

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”