Duke vs. Houston Parlay Picks & SGP Odds: Best Final Four Predictions Tonight
The two best teams in the country, according to KenPom, will match up with a trip to the national championship on the line tonight. The No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils and No. 1 seed Houston Cougars square off at the Alamodome in San Antonio at 8:49 p.m. ET (CBS).
Our best Duke vs. Houston parlay picks and SGP odds as part of our latest March Madness predictions expect the Cougars to at least make a game out of it despite being 5.5-point betting underdogs, as they’ve done in each of their rare losses this season.
👉 Want more picks? Check out our latest college basketball picks for the rest of our March Madness Final Four predictions.
🏀 Best Duke vs. Houston predictions for NCAA Tournament Final Four
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🔥 Houston +5.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
If Houston loses on Saturday night by more than five points, it would mark the first time it’s happened all season to the Cougars. With several of our best sports betting sites still featuring this line at Houston +5.5, there’s too much value sitting here to ignore the best defensive team in the country.
While Duke scoring on Houston is inevitable with the Blue Devils’ exceptional offensive efficiency, we’re insisting that Kelvin Sampson’s group will keep its composure and slow Duke down to the extent that these two elite teams won’t find much separation. Houston’s adjusted tempo is the fifth-slowest in the nation.
Although if they want to be competitive here, they probably can’t afford the type of shooting effort they had against Purdue last week, but that was an outlier relative to Houston’s standard production. The Cougars aren’t just a one-trick pony this year, ranking 10th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency.
📊 Best odds: -118 via BetMGM ($10 to win $8.47)
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🔥 Over 136.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Although Duke doesn’t demand a particularly fast pace when it plays (269th in adjusted tempo), their outrageously efficient offensive game sees the Blue Devils still rank sixth in the nation in scoring average at 83.7 points per game. Averaging in the mid-70s, Houston obviously prefers a lower scoring pace, but there’s only going to be so much the Cougars can do to prevent Duke from getting its points.
This total is set in a spot that implies 70 points should be enough to win this game. There were only three times when Duke failed to reach 70 points all season. Houston benefits if things turn into a rock fight in the 50s or 60s - but it’s hard to imagine Duke allowing that with a trip to the natty on the line.
Houston’s 81-76 win over Gonzaga is recent proof of concept that the Cougars can compete against elite offensive teams when those teams force the scoring pace a little higher than usual. Although the underdog covering is usually correlated with Under, we like Houston to score enough to help this game clear the 136.5-point total.
📊 Best odds: -110 via BetMGM ($10 to win $9.52)
🔥 Khaman Maluach Over 7.5 rebounds ⭐⭐⭐⭐
If Houston is able to slow the pace, the game may feature limited possessions, which could make rebounding more difficult. But we like one Duke big man to come through with an outlier effort on the boards because of his ability to contribute on the offensive glass.
Maluach has racked up 107 of his 257 rebounds this season on the offensive end. Though he averages only 6.8 rebounds per game, he saw a near season-high 31 minutes in Duke’s last game to earn nine rebounds, his high mark in the NCAA Tournament.
Houston isn’t particularly effective on the defensive glass, ranking 116th in defensive rebounding rate to open up opportunities for the 7’2” freshman to make an impact. Maluach has grabbed eight or more rebounds in 16 games this season.
📊 Best odds: +115 via BetMGM ($10 to win $11.50)
💰Best Duke vs. Houston SGP & parlay picks for Final Four
Here is my best Duke vs. Houston same-game parlay for Saturday's NCAA Tournament Final Four matchup; use our parlay calculator to get the best SGP odds for any March Madness game:
🔥 Houston +5.5
🔥 Over 136.5
🔥 Khaman Maluach 8+ rebounds
🚀 Best SGP odds: +533 via FanDuel ($10 to win $53.30)
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📺 How to watch Duke vs. Houston: Final Four
📅 Date: Saturday, April 5
🕗 Time: 8:49 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Alamodome (San Antonio)
📺 TV: CBS
💻 Streaming: March Madness Live
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