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Duke vs. Mount St. Mary's Prediction, Odds & Preview: NCAA Tournament First Round Best Bets

Mike Spector

Last Updated: March 21, 2025 12:43 PM EDT • 5 min 28 sec read.

Duke vs. Mount St. Mary's prediction
Pictured: Duke Blue Devils center Khaman Maluach reacting after dunking against the Stanford Cardinal during the second half at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Photo by Zachary Taft / Imagn.

The No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils (31-3) meet the No. 16 seed Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers (22-12) in today's NCAA Tournament first round. Tipoff from Lenovo Center in Raleigh, N.C., is at 2:50 p.m. ET (CBS).

The Blue Devils are anywhere from 32 to 32.5-point betting favorites to advance in the East Region of the March Madness bracket. We analyze how the Mountaineers were fortunate to win their third-ever NCAA Tournament game in First Four as we make our Duke vs. Mount St. Mary’s prediction, odds, and preview as part of our March Madness predictions.

🏀 Duke vs. Mount St. Mary's prediction & picks today

Here are my best Duke vs. Mount St. Mary's predictions for the first round of the NCAA Tournament; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any same-game parlay:

✅ Against the spread pick: Duke -32 (-110 via Caesars) vs. Mount St. Mary’s ⭐⭐⭐
🔥 Best player prop bet: Dola Adebayo Under 11.5 points (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Exact score prediction: Duke 87, Mount St. Mary’s 52 (+39000 via FanDuel)

👉 Want more picks? Check out our latest college basketball picks and the rest of our March Madness first-round predictions.

🔢 Duke vs. Mount St. Mary's updated betting action

  • The Blue Devils are the overwhelming -32.5 favorites in the hours before tipoff, and the easy majority of betters at BetMGM believe they won't cover that spread, with 65% backing Mount St. Mary's
  • There's a similar majority tied to the total, with 66% taking the Over on 140.5
  • The spread has stayed relatively steady since opening at -32.5 in favor of Duke on Wednesday, though it did briefly move to -31.5 yesterday

🏆 Best Duke vs. Mount St. Mary's pick, player prop bet & score prediction

Our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds for any March Madness market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

✅ Duke to cover the spread: -32 ⭐⭐⭐

Mount St. Mary’s did extraordinary things to earn its third NCAA Tournament win on Wednesday. Jedy Cordilia and Dola Adebayo tied career-highs with 22 points each, and a team that averaged 15 turnovers per game only committed 12.

However, perhaps this line would be even higher, or the Mountaineers might not even be playing today, if American did not lose its best player to injury. 

Matt Rogers only played eight minutes before leaving with a knee injury. There is no doubt that affected the Eagles’ game plan, as Rogers was the fourth-leading scorer in the Patriot League (min. 30 games), had the eighth-most points in school history, and was the Patriot League Championship MVP.

The Mountaineers’ turnover woes (they are the sixth-worst team in D-I in turnover rate) will be exposed by the Blue Devils defense. 

And though Mount St. Mary’s scored 22 points in the paint in the first half against American, it should get next to nothing inside against a Duke interior defense that allowed just 43.4% inside the arc (3rd-best in D-I).

Caesars is one of two of our best sports betting sites where one can back the favorites at -32 (compared to -32.5) at the standard -110 juice.

📊 Best odds: -110 via Caesars ($10 to win $9.09)

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🔥 Dola Adebayo Under 11.5 points ⭐⭐⭐

Adebayo not only tied his season-high with 22 points in the First Four win over American, but he has now scored 12-plus points in seven of the previous eight games.

However, KenPom predicts Mount St. Mary’s will score just 56 points, and FanDuel has the Mountaineers’ team total set even lower at 53.5, suggesting that Duke will clamp down on this No. 16 seed.

If you only watched the Mountaineers against American, you’d think their offense is predicated on pounding the ball inside. But Mount St. Mary’s only gets 47.5% of its points (ranks 246th in D-I) from 2-point range.

With Duke’s Khaman Maluach likely to be matched up a bunch with Adebayo, that should neutralize the underdog’s inside game. Thus, expect Mount St. Mary’s to fire away from 3-point range much more often in this contest.

📊 Best odds: -118 via FanDuel ($10 to win $8.47)

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🎯 Score prediction: Duke 87, Mount St. Mary’s 52

Duke had a stretch at the end of the regular season where it beat four straight opponents by 33-plus points, including a No. 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament (Illinois). 

The Blue Devils have also covered eight of their last 10 games, which is why I’m predicting a final score of Duke 87, Mount St. Mary’s 52.

📊 Best odds: +39000 via FanDuel ($10 to win $3900)

🤖 Duke vs. Mount St. Mary's AI prediction

For entertainment purposes, we asked ChatGPT to analyze historical trends and live NCAA Tournament stats before predicting the winner and exact score for Duke vs. Mount St. Mary's. Our AI prediction projects a final score of Duke 79, Mount St. Mary’s 58.

🖥️ AI score prediction: Duke 79, Mount St. Mary’s 58

  • March Madness often rewards teams with deep rosters and experienced players. Duke has a significant advantage in this area, with several players who have postseason experience.
  • Mount St. Mary's excels at defense, but against a high-caliber offense like Duke’s, it won’t be able to slow down the Blue Devils for long. The Mountaineers will struggle to contain Duke’s versatility, especially on the perimeter.
  • Mount St. Mary's will need to execute nearly flawlessly to pull off an upset. Its best hope lies in slowing the tempo, hitting threes, and forcing turnovers

🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean Mount St. Mary's covering the spread (+32) and a total of Under 140.5 points. ChatGPT is not a dedicated sports betting model, but it can identify data that March Madness bettors might overlook.

📊 Live Duke vs. Mount St. Mary's odds

Follow the latest live March Madness college basketball odds and real-time NCAA Tournament scores for the first round.

Latest Duke vs. Mount St. Mary's odds

Our updated Duke vs. Mount St. Mary's odds are via BetMGM.

Spread

There's been little movement in the spread since Duke opened as the overwhelming -32.5 favorite. The number shifted to -31.5 briefly before going back down.

Total

The total has gone on a bit of a ride after opening at 142.5. It progressively shifted down to 140.5 by yesterday around noon. The number stayed there until now in the hours before game time, when it moved back upward to 141.5. 

Moneyline

As expected prior to a game with such a heavy favorite on the spread, the moneyline hasn't budged while showing Duke as the dominant side. The Blue Devils opened at -1000 and remain there.

🔢 Duke vs. Mount St. Mary's opening odds

  • Spread: Duke -32.5 (-102) | Mount St. Mary's +32.5 (-118)
  • Moneyline: Duke -100000 | Mount St. Mary's +7000
  • Over/Under: Over 142.5 (-105) | Under 142.5 (-115)

📅 Check out the full March Madness first-round schedule and opening odds.

🔮 East Region expert picks

📺 How to watch Duke vs. Mount St. Mary's: NCAA Tournament first round

📅 Date: Friday, March 21
🕗 Time: 2:50 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Lenovo Center (Raleigh, N.C.)
📺 TV: CBS
💻 Streaming: March Madness Live

💰 March Madness betting odds pages

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”