Duke vs. North Carolina Prediction, Odds & Preview Today: Best Picks for Women's March Madness Sweet 16
No. 2 seed Duke (28-7) takes on No. 3 seed North Carolina (29-7) in an exciting rivalry game with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line.
This NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 showdown gets underway at 2:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Legacy Arena in Birmingham, Ala., and Duke serves as a 5.5-point betting favorite.
Can the Blue Devils advance in the Birmingham 2 Region of the women's March Madness bracket? These rivals split the regular-season series, and we discuss whether the Tar Heels can pull off the upset and win the rubber match in our Duke vs. North Carolina prediction, odds, and preview.
🏀 Duke vs. North Carolina prediction & picks today
Here are my best Duke vs. North Carolina predictions for the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any same-game parlay:
✅ Against the spread pick: Duke -5.5 (-110 via DraftKings) vs. North Carolina ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🔥 Best player prop bet: Maria Gakdeng Under 10.5 points (-105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Exact score prediction: Duke 65, North Carolina 56 (+15000 via DraftKings)
👉 Want more March Madness action? Check out the rest of our college basketball picks for both the men's and women's NCAA tournament.
Duke vs. North Carolina betting insights
- Bettors at BetMGM are aggressively backing the favorites, as 80% of the betting handle is on Duke to cover
- The split on tickets for the total is much more even, but we see that 68% of the handle is on the Under, telling us sharp money expects a lower-scoring affair
- Despite this, though, Duke remains only a -5.5 favorite, right where it opened when this matchup was determined
🏆 Best Duke vs. North Carolina pick, player prop bet & score prediction
Our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds for any March Madness market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
✅ Duke to cover the spread: -5.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
These two teams split the regular-season series, each winning on their home court. The Tar Heels scored just 53 points in both games, and considering the Blue Devils are allowing 57.1 points per game, I don’t anticipate them scoring much more on Friday.
The Blue Devils and Tar Heels struggled against inferior opponents in the second round. That said, the Blue Devils have more upside. They’ve won eight consecutive games, and six have been by at least 13 points. They look like a different team than the one the Tar Heels beat earlier this season.
Since this should be a low-scoring game, it makes sense to back the underdogs, as the defenses will keep this one close. But the Tar Heels have been poor offensively at points throughout this season, coming off a mediocre 58 points in last round's victory.
Duke only scored 59, but the Tar Heels have now scored 60 or fewer in three of their last four. Take the Blue Devils to dominate all facets of this game and pull away late.
📊 Best odds: -110 via DraftKings ($10 to win $9.09)
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🔥 Maria Gakdeng Under 10.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Gakdeng is averaging 11.1 points per game but has not played well against the Blue Devils. In the Tar Heels’ overtime win in January, she managed just four points in 17 minutes as she shot 2-of-7 from the field. In the Tar Heels’ loss in late February, she scored just eight points in 29 minutes.
While Gakdeng is the Tar Heels’ leading scorer, she’s hardly a guarantee to perform well against anyone. Gakdeng scored 10 or fewer points in four of her last five games, and since Feb. 13, she’s scored 10 or less in seven of 10 games.
To get the price for this Under at -105 makes it the best play of the game. Nothing suggests that the Tar Heels will score more than they did in either of the previous two meetings against Duke and even if they do, Makdeng has been struggling from the floor. Of our best sports betting sites, FanDuel offers the best price.
📊 Best odds: -105 via FanDuel ($10 to win $9.52)
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🎯 Score prediction: Duke 65, North Carolina 56
Because these teams have already played twice this season, we have more information about this game than any other Sweet 16 matchup. The Tar Heels scored 53 points in both previous meetings, while the Blue Devils scored 46 in their loss and 68 in their win.
On Friday, I expect the Blue Devils to perform more similarly to how they played in the victory. The Tar Heels should struggle offensively against a great defense, and the Blue Devils will do enough to overcome a strong defense. This will be closer than the final score suggests, but the Blue Devils will cover.
📊 Best odds: +15000 via DraftKings ($10 to win $1,500)
🤖 Duke vs. North Carolina AI prediction
For entertainment purposes, we asked ChatGPT to analyze historical trends and live NCAA Tournament stats before predicting the winner and exact score for Duke vs. North Carolina. Our AI prediction projects a final score of Duke 72, North Carolina 68.
🖥️ AI score prediction: Duke 72, North Carolina 68
- In their most recent meeting on Feb. 27, 2025, Duke secured a decisive 68-53 victory over North Carolina.
- The Tar Heels are 56-54 all-time against the Blue Devils.
- Considering the Blue Devils’ recent victory over UNC and their momentum from winning the ACC Tournament, they appear to have the upper hand. However, given the competitive nature of this rivalry and the high stakes of the tournament, North Carolina could keep it close.
🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean North Carolina covering the spread (+5.5) and a total of Over 124.5 points. ChatGPT is not a dedicated sports betting model, but it can identify data that March Madness bettors might overlook.
📊 Live Duke vs. North Carolina odds
Follow the latest women's March Madness odds for the NCAA Tournament.
🔢 Duke vs. North Carolina opening odds
- Spread: Duke -5.5 (-110) | North Carolina +5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Duke -245 | North Carolina +200
- Over/Under: Over 124.5 (-110) | Under 124.5 (-110)
Duke vs. North Carolina line movement
All movement prior to tipoff via bet365.
Spread
This spread is set to close where it opened with just hours until tipoff despite plenty of action coming on the favorites to cover.
Total
This total opened at 124.5 but has been bet down to 122, as bettors across all of our sites with the best sportsbook promos expect a low-scoring affair.
Moneyline
There's been limited movement on the moneyline, as Duke has become a slightly bigger favorite at -250 after opening at -245.
📺 How to watch Duke vs. North Carolina: Women's March Madness
📅 Date: Friday, March 28
🕗 Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Legacy Arena at BJCC (Birmingham, Ala.)
📺 TV: ESPN
💻 Streaming: March Madness Live
🆚 Sweet 16 game predictions
- Duke vs. North Carolina prediction
- South Carolina vs. Maryland prediction
- NC State vs. LSU prediction
- UCLA vs. Ole Miss Prediction
💰 March Madness betting odds pages
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| Final Four odds | March Madness prop bets |
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