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Florida vs. Alabama Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks Tonight: Best Bets & AI Score Projections

Mike Spector

Last Updated: March 5, 2025 3:18 PM EST • 5 min 42 sec read.

We're backing the Crimson Tide in our Florida vs. Alabama prediction.
Pictured: Alabama guard Mark Sears moves the ball against Tennessee. Photo by Randy Sartin voa Imagn Images.

Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa, Ala., sets the stage for a high-stakes showdown tonight as Alabama hosts Florida at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2).

Our Florida vs. Alabama prediction, odds, and expert picks expect the Crimson Tide to bring urgency, aiming to avoid their second losing streak of the season. Our best sportsbooks list them as 2.5-point favorites at home.

Alabama is battling through one of the nation’s toughest stretches, coming off a road loss to Tennessee. With a matchup against Auburn looming, the Crimson Tide must handle business against a dangerous Gators squad to stay in the hunt for a No. 1 seed.

📈 Florida vs. Alabama odds movement

Alabama opened as a 3.5-point home favorite against Florida, with the line bouncing around as tip approaches tonight. A few of our best sportsbooks are offering the Crimson Tide -2.5 while others have the Gators +3.5.

Despite Alabama being the favorite, 65% of the money is on Florida to cover the spread, according to BetMGM's John Ewing.

💰 Florida vs. Alabama predictions, expert picks & best bets tonight

Here are my best Florida vs. Alabama predictions, expert picks, and best bets today with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. Be sure to check out the rest of our college basketball picks along with our guide on how to bet on college basketball.

  • Against the spread pick: Alabama -2.5 (-110 via Caesars) vs. Florida ⭐⭐
  • My best player prop bet: Will Richard Over 12.5 points (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Exact score prediction: Alabama 85, Florida 80 (+18000 via DraftKings) ⭐

🏀 Florida vs. Alabama ATS prediction & best player prop bet pick

Here's why I'm betting on Alabama to cover the spread (-2.5) while targeting Will Richard Over 12.5 points as my best player prop bet pick for today:

✅ Alabama to cover the spread (-2.5) ⭐⭐

This line feels a little inflated towards the Gators, who are coming off an 89-70 thrashing of Texas A&M. But the fact is the Aggies were rarely good in that spot, falling to 1-22 all-time in road games against AP top-5 teams.

We have seen this movie before with Florida, who beat Tennessee and Georgia by 30 points at home, and went on to lose road rematches weeks later. Thus, I am looking for every opportunity to fade the Gators on the road in games with low spreads.

Meanwhile, Alabama has proven itself more against quality competition. The Crimson Tide are 10-6 in Quad 1 games, while the Gators are just 6-4. These two teams are mirror images of each other, adopting the newer philosophy of offense that eschews mid-range jumpers and relies on 3-point shots or driving to the rim.

I will give the Crimson Tide the edge in those philosophies while playing at home. If this is a close game down the stretch, the Gators are at a disadvantage with the 15th-ranked free throw shooting percentage in SEC play (69.3%).

I am heading to Caesars for this wager as it is the only one of our best sports betting sites charging the standard -110 juice to back Alabama at -2.5.

📊 Best odds: -110 via Caesars (bet $10 to win $9.09)

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🔥 Will Richard Over 12.5 points ⭐⭐⭐

Will Richard had a stretch in mid-February where he scored single-digit points in two of three games, including a goose-egg in a home win against LSU. Since then, Richard has posted consecutive 25-point games for the first time in his career.

There should be plenty of points scored in this matchup, as Alabama plays at the fastest tempo in the country, while Florida ranks 69th in the same metric.

Alabama also forces turnovers at the second-lowest rate in SEC play, so the Gators should have plenty of clean looks on offense. This is a three-star play, as Richard ranks in the top five in the league in effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage.

📊 Best odds: -115 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $8.70)

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🎯 Expert Florida vs. Alabama score prediction & AI projections

🔮 Expert score prediction: Alabama 85, Florida 80
🤖 AI score prediction: Alabama 85, Florida 80

🔮 Expert score prediction: Alabama 85, Florida 80

We should see a spirited effort from the Crimson Tide, who are looking to avoid a two-game losing streak heading into a matchup with No. 1 Auburn this weekend. They are 7-5 SU against ranked opponents, which is why I’m predicting a final score of Alabama 85, Florida 80.

📊 Best odds: +18000 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $1,800)

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🤖 AI score prediction: Alabama 85, Florida 80

Score prediction and analysis via ChatGPT - a large language model from OpenAI not specifically designed for predicting sporting events.

"Alabama is known for its high-scoring offense, averaging 91 points per game (leading the nation). However, they struggle defensively, allowing 80.1 points per game, ranking 347th in the country. This prediction assumes Alabama's home court advantage and their powerful offense will give them the edge."

🖥️ AI predictions for Florida vs. Alabama

Both teams are capable of scoring heavily, so expect a high-scoring game; the projected final score is Alabama 85, Florida 80.

  • Win probability: Florida 40% | Alabama 60%
  • Projected total points: 185
  • Key takeaways:
    • Both teams boast high-scoring offenses, with Alabama leading the nation in points per game and Florida not far behind.
    • Florida is solid defensively, giving up 67.2 points per game.
    • Alabama’s tempo is one of the fastest in college basketball. The Crimson Tide like to push the pace and take advantage of fast breaks.

🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI score prediction leans toward Alabama covering the spread (-2.5) and a total of Over 178.5 points.

📊 Live Florida vs. Alabama odds & latest betting splits

Here are the latest odds for Florida vs. Alabama, which update live in real time. You can also check out our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool for the latest college basketball odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your region.

🔢 Florida vs. Alabama opening odds

Here's a look at the opening odds for Florida vs. Alabama according to BetMGM.

  • Spread: Florida +3.5 (-110) | Alabama -3.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Florida +140 | Alabama -170
  • Over/Under: Over 177.5 (-115) | Under 177.5 (-105)

🏆 Who will win Florida vs. Alabama?

As of Wednesday morning, Alabama is favored by 3.5 points to beat Florida with moneyline odds of -150 at BetMGM, which suggests a 60% win probability for the Crimson Tide. We're predicting an 85-80 win for Alabama as our final score projection.

So far, 51% of bettors have wagered against the spread on Crimson Tide -3.5, while 54% of bettors expect the game to finish Over the projected total of 178.5 points.

📺 How to watch Florida vs. Alabama tonight

📅 Date: Wednesday, March 5
🕗 Time: 7 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Coleman Coliseum (Tuscaloosa, Ala.)
📺 TV: ESPN2
💻 Streaming: ESPN+

❓ Florida vs. Alabama FAQs

Who is favored to win Florida vs. Alabama?

Alabama is a slight moneyline favorite to beat Florida. The Crimson Tide are trading at -150 at our best sports betting apps, giving them a 60% implied probability.

What are the betting odds for Florida vs. Alabama?

The latest spread is Alabama -3.5 (-110) | Florida +3.5 (-110), with a total of 178.5 points (-110).

What will be the final score of Florida vs. Alabama?

We're predicting a final score of Alabama 85, Florida 80 entering tonight's matchup at Coleman Coliseum.

What time is Florida vs. Alabama tonight?

Tipoff for Florida vs. Alabama is slated for tonight at 7 p.m. ET.

⛹️ Best college basketball betting sites

Looking to bet on college basketball tonight? Here are our best March Madness betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best March Madness betting promos ahead of the NCAA Tournament.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”